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Game 12 - Philly. No biggie. Just a season in the balance ...

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  1. #1
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    College at Brockport

    Default Turnover Opportunities: QB, Team, Percentages and More

    I went through every team on pro football reference’s database. All 32 teams. I looked at their quarterbacks turnover opportunities and their team total turnover opportunities.

    For the record, a turnover opportunity is an INT or a fumble (whether it was lost or not is irrelevant, as a fumble has a random chance of recovery for either team).

    Some are going to take this at Anti-Grossman propaganda. And it is. But not intentionally. The purpose of the thread was specifically to find out how much quarterback play, and their impact on total team turnovers, impacts a team.

    Here’s what I found:

    -Only one team (Philadephia) has more Turnover Opportunities from their quarterbacks than the Redskins. The Eagles had 37 TO Opps between their three quarterbacks (Vick, Young, Kafka), which breaks down to 25 INTs and 12 fumbles. The Redskins had 35 total from their QBs (24 INT, 11 Fumbles) from Grossman and Beck. The Cardinals tied us with 35 (23 INT, 12 fumbles) from Skelton, Kolb and Bartel.

    The best in the league in QB turnover opportunities was San Francisco with 12, Green Bay had 13 and New Orleans had 15.

    -Only one team had more total turnover opportunities than the Redskins, and that was the Buccaneers. The Bucs had 54 turnover opportunities. We had 49. Tampa breaks down to 24 INT, 30 fumbles. We had 24 INT, 25 fumbles.

    The best in the league in total turnover opportunities was San Francisco with 19. New Orleans had 20, Green Bay had 23.

    -Our quarterback turnover opportunities outnumbered eleven teams total turnover opportunities. Those eleven were San Francisco, Atlanta, Carolina, Cincy, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Tennessee. Nine of those eleven made the playoffs. Carolina was the worst overall of those teams, and Tennessee was on the brink of the playoffs.

    The three playoff teams that weren’t on this list: Lions (36 total team, +1 from Washington’s QBs), Broncos (43 total team, +8 from Redskin QBs) and the Ravens (36 total team, +1 from Redskin QBs).

    The Redskins QBs also tied total team turnovers for the Chiefs and the Browns. Again, this is the Redskin QBs versus every other teams total turnover opportunities.. Our QBs had more turnover opportunities than 11 teams, and we tied with 2 teams.

    -We fared better in percentage of total turnovers being from the QB position. 71% of our total turnovers are from our QBs. Teams that were worse: Arizona (74%), Atlanta (72%), Buffalo (78%), Carolina (73%), Cleveland (77%), Indy (78%), Jacksonville (73%), New England (72%), New Orleans (75%), Giants (75%), Raiders (79%), Eagles (77%), Steelers (74%), Chargers (74%).

    That’s fourteen of thirty-two teams that were worse than us in this category. However, of these teams, four teams had 30 or less total turnover opportunities. New Orleans (20), New England (25), Atlanta (25), Carolina (30). That puts their percentage numbers on a bit more of a skew. And every single one of those teams had less total team turnovers than we did.

    The league best for QB% of turnovers was Dallas. Dallas QBs accounted for 52% of their total team turnovers (19 vs. 36). Other teams under 60% were: Cincinatti (58%, 18 vs. 31), Detroit (58%, 21 vs. 36), Green Bay (56%, 13 vs 23), Houston (58%, 17 vs. 29), Tennessee (58%, 18 vs. 31).

    -Of teams that had over 40 total turnover opportunities, which was nine teams. None of them had winning records. Arizona, Denver, Jets and Eagles all finished at .500. One of these teams made the playoffs (Denver*).

    * is an outlier due to the style of offense they run.

    -Of the teams that had 30 or more QB turnover opportunities, which was eight total, only three finished at .500. The rest were sub .500. None of these teams made the playoffs.

    -Six teams had under 30 total turnovers. San Francisco, Atlanta, Green Bay, Houston, New England, and New Orleans. All of them are playoff teams.

    -Five additional teams had under 35 total team turnover opportunities. Carolina, Giants, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Three of those five are playoff teams.

    So of teams that had under 35 total turnover opps, nine out of eleven of them are playoff teams.

    -Rex Grossman alone (28 TO opportunities) had more TO opportunities than five teams total turnover opportunities (SF, ATL, GB, NE, NO). All of which? Playoff teams.
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  2. #2

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    Default

    Great stats Kdawg. That must have taken quite a while to put together.

    We need us a QB.
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  3. #3
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    Michigan State

    Default

    So what you're saying is, turnovers are significant in football, and teams that turn the ball over less and force turnovers from their opponents more tend to win more and are more likely to make the playoffs. And that this is especially true with respect to the QB position.

    Gee, who would've thunk it?




    Just messin' with ya. Thanks for the effort in analyzing these stats.
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  4. #4
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    Default

    What's interesting is a stat from the Super Bowl. Only one team, the Oakland Raiders won the Super Bowl with a negative TO ratio during the regular season.

    And Gibbs said as much last week - the Redskins were 14-2 in 1983 largely because the club was plus 43 in takeaways.

    Poor ball security by the qbs cost this team wins in 2011.

    Although now its probably better for the Skins to be selecting 6th instead of 10th or 11th.
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  5. #5

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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bulldog's Twin View Post
    Poor ball security by the qbs cost this team wins in 2011.

    Although now its probably better for the Skins to be selecting 6th instead of 10th or 11th.
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    10th or 11th? Really? You think we would be picking that high if the QBs could hang on to the damn ball?

    We lost 4 very winable games (Dallas, Philly, Dallas, NE) due directly to QB turnovers. Give this team those 4 wins and it would have NY's place in the playoffs and, having watched ATL this last weekend, likely be going to GB this week. I don't think we would yet know where we were picking in this year's draft yet if our QB's could just protect the ball.
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  6. #6
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    Virginia Tech

    Default

    25 years.

    That's how long it's been since Lawrence Taylor did the deed to Joey T's leg.

    That's how long we've gone into new seasons every fall without a legitimate, big time NFL QB to build around.

    Oh, we were distracted for brief periods of time by the genius of Gibbs I, who managed to do the almost unthinkable--maintain a flagship, contending franchise for several years without an anchor field general--but since then it has pretty much been a forced march through parched desert.

    Tired of it.

    Very, very thirsty.

    Want. QB.
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    Eschew obfuscation.

  7. #7
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    The stats confirm what Gibbs said last week on WTEM 980, namely that the Redskins or any NFL team can only win when their takeaway ratio is in positive territory and the play of the qb is reflective of positive plays made and not net turnovers.

    20 interceptions? That's a really high number for a quarterback in only 13 games and given the number of pass attempts Rex had.
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