RG3 will declare for draft

Skinsfan76 said:

I like Tannehill a lot. The only problem is will he be ready to start week one. If not I hope we have an upgrade over Grossman as the stop gap guy.

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Most likely, any veteran who is good enough to start, is not going to want the job, knowing ahead of time, that he will probably only start a few games. That QB will likely take a virtually guaranteed starting job elsewhere. Besides, an extremely talented rookie who's "not quite ready for game 1" is probably a better option than the veteran we had starting game 1 of this past season, IMO. Can't be any worse.

Gonna spill the beans a bit about what I've heard.

The Redskins will initially target Andrew Luck by trying to acquire the first pick. If unable to do so, the next target will be RG3 via the second pick (Rams) or see if he slides to 6th.

Don't count out the idea of him sliding to 6th - it could happen. The Rams will not seek a new QB. The Vikings are committed to Ponder. The Browns have their minds made up - Matt Flynn. Tampa Bay will continue with their QB. The new owner of the Jaguars affirmed his commitment to Gabbert. The Dolphins are leaning towards going with Matt Moore and bringing in Kyle Orton. Seattle is the only other team looking to draft a QB and their FO realizes that they are too far down to move up for Luck or RG3.

Burgundy Burner said:

Gonna spill the beans a bit about what I've heard.

The Redskins will initially target Andrew Luck by trying to acquire the first pick. If unable to do so, the next target will be RG3 via the second pick (Rams) or see if he slides to 6th.

Don't count out the idea of him sliding to 6th - it could happen. The Rams will not seek a new QB. The Vikings are committed to Ponder. The Browns have their minds made up - Matt Flynn. Tampa Bay will continue with their QB. The new owner of the Jaguars affirmed his commitment to Gabbert. The Dolphins are leaning towards going with Matt Moore and bringing in Kyle Orton. Seattle is the only other team looking to draft a QB and their FO realizes that they are too far down to move up for Luck or RG3.

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Something told me this off-season could get real interesting.

Burgundy Burner said:

Doubtful. Just today, Holmgren all but hinted at competition for McCoy, not replacement. He has a history of getting backups to come in for such purposes - Hasselbeck is one example in Seattle. Steve Young is another - convincing the 49ers to get him while Holmgren was the QB coach. Brett Favre was another player that Holmgren traded for - in Green Bay of course.

Holmgren is known to covet Trent Richardson and is all but certain to sign Matt Flynn.

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hope you're right!

Burgundy Burner said:

Gonna spill the beans a bit about what I've heard.

The Redskins will initially target Andrew Luck by trying to acquire the first pick. If unable to do so, the next target will be RG3 via the second pick (Rams) or see if he slides to 6th.

Don't count out the idea of him sliding to 6th - it could happen. The Rams will not seek a new QB. The Vikings are committed to Ponder. The Browns have their minds made up - Matt Flynn. Tampa Bay will continue with their QB. The new owner of the Jaguars affirmed his commitment to Gabbert. The Dolphins are leaning towards going with Matt Moore and bringing in Kyle Orton. Seattle is the only other team looking to draft a QB and their FO realizes that they are too far down to move up for Luck or RG3.

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The real question is, what would it take to move from #6 to #2? The draft value chart: http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php has the 2nd pick worth 2,600 pts while the 6th pick is worth 1,600 pts. Our 2nd round pick is worth a little over 500 pts so that means we would have to give up at least three picks to get one in return. Is it worth it? The only other option is to give up our #1 next year, but the question would be the same. Is it worth it?

I could see giving up two number ones. More than that (including later picks),I'd have to really think about .
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Skinsfan76 said:

The only other option is to give up our #1 next year, but the question would be the same. Is it worth it?

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If we make the playoffs next year, the answer is easily, yes, since next year's #1 would be in the 20-32 range. Make the Championship game, or SB, and it's a steal!

Of course, it's just like losing to improve draft position.

There's no way to know in advance if it WILL pay off.

If they think he's "The One", then do it.

Brock Osweiler has declared for the draft. He is 6' 8", just not sure where he is projected to go.

Any JR coming out has to declare by next Sunday. This time next week we will have a better picture of the QB's available via the draft.

As SF76 mentioned, is it worth it to move up from 6 to 2 and lose valuable picks? A blue chip QB would be nice, but is one guy worth the cost?

Also add in the fact there is not guarantee the guy will succeed. If he fails, then you set yourself back even further, plus the picks you gave up.

Yes.
Or No.
It depends - and that's really he only answer anyone can give Rig. If we move up and are able to snag a guy who develops into a true FRANCHISE QB, then it will be worth an enormous price (I'd go as far as 3 #1's and a few toss in draft picks.

The problem with making that move is that there are no guarantees, and if you're wrong, you cripple your franchise for years to come.

The more I think about our draft situation, the more I wonder if the smart move isn't just to wait and see what happens. Most years, there's far, far more speculation about teams moving up than actually occurs. I know it's a bit different now with the salary limits for rookies, but I still think there's a decent chance a guy like RGIII could fall to us. Stranger things have happened.

I change my mind every day or so on what we should do.

And if we haven't decided to go with a young FA QB and RGIII is there at the #6 pick, we pick him. I get the feeling with the new rookie scale, this is going to be an interesting draft.

What scares me is not taking a QB in free agency but then missing on RG3 in the draft. Don't get me wrong there are some good quarterbacks in this years draft. From Tannehill, Foles and someone mentioned Osweiler too. However, are any of those guys going to be able to start week one? Rushing a young QB into the fire is never a good idea.

I would try to pick up Flynn in free agency and do the wait and see approach in the draft. If RG3 falls to six ( I doubt this happens) then we take him, if not then I would take Justin Blackmon without any hesitation at all. Then in the 2nd round we could be looking at O-line or corner but if Shanahan loves one of the other QBs listed above we could take him.

What I want most of for next year is at this time of year we are talking about the playoffs and not the draft

been looking at a lotta mock drafts lately. I know....mostly pulling stuff from the rear quarter. that said......overwhelmingly these mocks have Cleveland selecting RGIII....and more than a few have us selecting.....Blackmon!

I'm starting to think more and more it plays out like this:

- we make a serious run at RGIII. If the cost exceeds CY12 Draft #2 + #3 or #4 and CY13 Draft #1 + #2 and/or #3..the deal doesn't happen.

- signing Flynn (after due diligence on whether he really is the deal) and working a full draft is very attractive. The nice part about this strategy is you get a good QB AND you get to draft complementary tools at a high level. in short...the team gets better that much faster. the flip side is the downside risk - Flynn should be compared to RGIII in the analysis. If RGIII has 10-12 years franchise written all over him and your estimate is that Flynn is a BIG MAYBE. well then the impact of the decision begins to favor RGIII because the higher return supports expending more resources.

- the key strategic driver is the Browns....because they are basically looking at the same situation as the Skins: RGIII or Flynn. I don't think they are committed to McCoy. Figuring out their strategy is what really matters here...IMO...in bounding the courses of action. What is Holmgren thinking? Is he using Packer ties to get the real lowdown on Flynn? If the Packers are running a system similar to what Holmgren ran...then Flynn's success has value to Holmgrem beyond what Shanahan may see when viewing Flynn in his system. No idea on this angle...though BB might. also...if the Browns draft RGIII and McCoy really does have value...the Browns can always trade him. It's a win win for them.

Sooooooo.....subject to a dozen changes before next April.....the SKins have two basic cases: (btw...I'm a priori ruling out a Browns' strategy of signing Flynn AND drafting RGIII. I'm also assuming the Browns stay where they are in the draft order to draft the best RB or Wideout available if they sign Flynn)

1) The Browns go after Flynn and sign him before the draft.

- I doubt that the Browns wait until the draft to pull the trigger. They are going to want to have their draft strategy in place weeks before the draft.

- Nothing will happen until after the Packers win the SB ... ... so look for a Feb/Mar trade if this happens

- the Skins will play a role in this...assuming they know their stuff and don't get played by Flynn's agent and the Packers FO...they should be able to figure out if other teams...specifically the Browns...are bidding on Flynn. In other words, the SKins should have a decent estimate by mid-Mar on their strategy. If we pay careful attention to the hints...we should be able to figure it out. Once Flynn is signed by someone...we'll know the next steps with a high degree of certainty.

2) The Browns do not sign Flynn before the draft.

- this is a strong signal...IMO...that they are going to draft RGIII. Pure speculation on my part...I know. but it makes sense. If the Skins believe RGIII is the real deal and franchise material for 10-12 years...why wouldn't the Browns? McCoy remains an uncertainty at this point. IMO...you go for the high return. The Browns are a better team than their record indicated...their problems were principally on the offensive side of the ball.

- the Skins must decide the cost/benefit ratio on trading up. As noted earlier...the analysis should include the relative benefits between each scenario. IMO....I think Shanahan...with 3 years to go.....decides that trading for Flynn and continuing to restock with a greater volume of high caliber players through the draft gets him to the playoffs faster.

So...much of it depends on what the Browns decide, we should have a good idea by mid-Mar what'll unfold, and....IMO.....the current Skins environment favors the Flynn approach.

hey....this is all fun...right? so I know I left a ton of stuff out and history will prove me wrong. I submit that the real fun for all of us is reading the tea leaves along the way. perhaps Boone can set up a dedicated thread where we track actions by the Browns, Skins, etc., to build the storyboard. Kinda like all those "Redskin One was observed flying into....." threads...only with more detail, organization and thinking.

addendum: while the Skins may draft a QB at a lower round.....this strategy makes the least sense to me absent a FA QB signing. Shanahan needs a winning record NEXT season. He needs to be in the playoffs by his 4th year. Beyond Luck and RGIII....any QB draft may have a high upside, but it's a 2-3 year project that falls outside his schedule constraints.

The only other issue that I would add would be that if the Browns sign Flynn, that doesn't mean that another team wouldn't jump ahead of us and take Griffin. If the Browns sign Flynn then I think they would take Richardson or Blackmon whoever is there but what about Miami? They could be in love with RG3 and jump ahead of us. There could always be another team not on the radar too. I personally think Luck goes #1 RG3 goes #2 as the Rams move down. As you said FS62 we will all change our minds twenty times before Free Agency and the Draft.

Skinsfan76 said:

The only other issue that I would add would be that if the Browns sign Flynn, that doesn't mean that another team wouldn't jump ahead of us and take Griffin. If the Browns sign Flynn then I think they would take Richardson or Blackmon whoever is there but what about Miami? They could be in love with RG3 and jump ahead of us. There could always be another team not on the radar too. I personally think Luck goes #1 RG3 goes #2 as the Rams move down. As you said FS62 we will all change our minds twenty times before Free Agency and the Draft.

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I thought about that. hard call. the only real threat in that department is Miami (based on what I have read and believing Denver doesn't have enough to negotiate with). but with GM/coaching change about to unfold....who knows how the Dolphin winds will blow. We have more bartering material than they do from a draft position pov. and...Moore hasn't performed that badly...the Dolphins may think they can wait another year and take the USC or OU QB in 2013.

With all our needs I just think the cost to move up will be too high. I see us sticking at #6 and possibly getting Blackmon or trading back some for more picks. Then getting someone early in second or third. Then you have someone with potential, but not the expectations of a first rounder.

Once we see how active and who we target in FA will tell us a lot about draft plans.

With the absence of a legit Free Agency last year prior to the draft, the draft had much more emphasis. We will be reminded how important Free Agency is as the opening day approaches. There will be a much clearer picture of strategy once we see the front office's plan/contingency plan for/after free agency.

Ha! Just as I was posting that, I realized who the audience was for this post. Hello Capt. Obvious!

I hated waiting all of those months last year between the end of the season and the draft with hardly nothing going on in between. But now I must say I kind of like the idea of having the draft before free agency. You can draft on best available a little more easily because you know you have free agency to fill up the holes. This has nothing to do with the conversation just a thought.

Skinsfan76 said:

I hated waiting all of those months last year between the end of the season and the draft with hardly nothing going on in between. But now I must say I kind of like the idea of having the draft before free agency. You can draft on best available a little more easily because you know you have free agency to fill up the holes. This has nothing to do with the conversation just a thought.

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isn't it better for a team to have new players in the fold early as possible?

FA is a competitive market...there's no guarantee...sitting at the draft table...that the FA player you expect to fill a hole hole will be available downstream. as the Skins have learned multiple times with o-line and wideouts.

FA after the draft INCREASES uncertainty.

There are no guarantees in the draft either. This RG3 kid could be a bust. A lot of these top WR in the draft are busts. We are fresh off AJ Green and Julio Jones having great rookie seasons but Demaryius Thomas was the first WR taken in 2010 and he is not a good receiver. He's a good athelete but not a good WR. Heyward-Bey and even Crabtree haven't lived up to top 10 picks in 2009. I think that free agency is what each team makes it just like the draft. If you go after the shinest toy in free agency every year like Vinnie used to do then yeah free agency can be a mess but if you use it right it can be a great tool to fix your roster.

I think the teams like Green Bay, New England, Pittsburgh and Baltimore that are so good at drafting can use the draft every year like we did last year. You take the best player available and get better players rather than if you have to reach in one area or another because of need. Maybe I just want the Skins to one day be able to have that mindset with the draft.