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In a tie for the 6th Pick with the Jaguars, the tie-breaker goes to.......

Rymanofthenorth said:
the entire argument is funny, its common sense that even if we have a higher pick, we still need to make informed, well researched picks to get the best player possible and its no guarantee, but its also common sense that the higher you pick, not only are you more likley to get the guy YOU want but that the other teams who do the same due diiligence wont get him first.
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So, is it your theory that common sense should be common?:)
 
Okay, let me try this one more time.

There’s a reason the draft order is the way it is. The crappiest teams in the league get the top picks, because they have the furthest to go in order to become competitive again. By hoping we had the top pick, one is hoping that either a) we are the crappiest team in the league and therefore have the furthest to go in order to improve or b) were just terribly unlucky on the field but are secretly really close to being good or something.

Let’s throw B right out because it’s not terribly rational. Teams generally are what they are, give or take a game, and if your offseason plans hinge on your team mystically losing a lot of games they really shouldn’t lose I’d have to doubt your abilities to logically judge anything about an offseason beyond that.

So that leaves us with A, hoping your team is the crappiest team in the league. Well, that means you have the furthest to go. That means you have to hit on more picks than other teams do, despite the fact that your coach and GM have put together the crappiest team in the league. Certainly high picks are generally more helpful than low ones. Teams that need the most help get the most help.

According to our draft position, we need more help than 25 other teams in the league. It wouldn’t be better if we needed more help than 26, or 27 or 31. Yes, it would mean we had better picks, but it would also mean that we had further to go.

In the end, it all evens out, which is why the draft is set up the way it is.

It's more important to me that our front office proves it knows what it’s doing than where they pick in the draft. Hoping for the draft pick first is putting the cart before the horse, in my opinion.
 
By the way, 6th is very nice. I think we'll be fine.
 
Henry said:
Okay, let me try this one more time.

There’s a reason the draft order is the way it is. The crappiest teams in the league get the top picks, because they have the furthest to go in order to become competitive again. By hoping we had the top pick, one is hoping that either a) we are the crappiest team in the league and therefore have the furthest to go in order to improve or b) were just terribly unlucky on the field but are secretly really close to being good or something.

Let’s throw B right out because it’s not terribly rational. Teams generally are what they are, give or take a game, and if your offseason plans hinge on your team mystically losing a lot of games they really shouldn’t lose I’d have to doubt your abilities to logically judge anything about an offseason beyond that.

So that leaves us with A, hoping your team is the crappiest team in the league. Well, that means you have the furthest to go. That means you have to hit on more picks than other teams do, despite the fact that your coach and GM have put together the crappiest team in the league. Certainly high picks are generally more helpful than low ones. Teams that need the most help get the most help.

According to our draft position, we need more help than 25 other teams in the league. It wouldn’t be better if we needed more help than 26, or 27 or 31. Yes, it would mean we had better picks, but it would also mean that we had further to go.

In the end, it all evens out, which is why the draft is set up the way it is.

It's more important to me that our front office proves it knows what it’s doing than where they pick in the draft. Hoping for the draft pick first is putting the cart before the horse, in my opinion.
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What you did was to throw out b) as “irrational” which left a) your Strawman argument.

If you are the fan of a rebuilding team, hoping to lose close games because of bad luck is perfectly rational if you want the best for your football team.

If the 2011 Skins had a championship caliber roster, the injuries suffered to starters this year would have been heart breaking. But, as it happened, those injuries resulted in the discovery of surprisingly good talent off the practice squad and forced our coaches to find creative scheme solutions that worked as well or better than those planned.

If the 2011 Skins had a championship caliber roster, then losing a game on a bad call by the ref hurts like hell. But, in a season like this one, the ref would be doing us a favor.

Some games are lost by near misses and bad bounces. The fan of a team with a roster in need of rebuilding should hope for those.

The won/lost record in a given season is just not a good indicator of the quality of the roster. “You are what your record says you are” is a catchy phrase, but it’s not true.
 
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So using the BS logic of the Sometimes I Want My Team To Win Fan, shouldn't we just go ahead and lose out in 2012 & 2013, so we can really be stacked? I mean, it's best "long term" for the team, right?
 
Ax said:
So using the BS logic of the Sometimes I Want My Team To Win Fan, shouldn't we just go ahead and lose out in 2012 & 2013, so we can really be stacked? I mean, it's best "long term" for the team, right?
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Only once we are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in any given season. :)
 
Ax said:
So using the BS logic of the Sometimes I Want My Team To Win Fan, shouldn't we just go ahead and lose out in 2012 & 2013, so we can really be stacked? I mean, it's best "long term" for the team, right?
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Nope. I expect we'l start to turn the corner by the end of next year. If we do that, we won't have to worry about "Sucking" for one of the top QB picks, or any pick for that matter. I seriously doubt we'll blow enough to be in the top ten of the draft in April of 13 just becaus we will be improving. This is our chance, and hopefully we won't blow it
 
I don't want to suck any longer that we already have. I want us to be a winning team and have that last for as long as we can. I was buoyed by both the quality and quantity of the 2011 draft and free agent class...and by the sheer intelligence of the process that our front office showed for the first time in a VERY long time. I am further enthused knowing that if we can come close to replicating 2011 in the 2012 off season we will have come very close to turning over our entire roster and will hopefully have a great deal of youth, skill and commitment in place to help us moving forward. We have a LOT of picks in this years' draft, and with those picks come flexibility and opportunity....provided they are utilized intelligently. The top pick, the 6th, is a prime pick....either to use in and of itself or to use as bait for an improved situation.

I'm taking the cautiously optimistic point of view here....but I do think the pieces are quickly being put into place to get us where we want to be for the long term. Like Sarge said, I hope we don't blow the opportunity.
 
Oldfan said:
What you did was to throw out b) as “irrational” which left a) your Strawman argument.
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It might only be considered a strawman if I'm addressing just you with that post. I was actually also talking about some other posts in this thread suggesting that our draft position was detrimental to our team's development.

If you are the fan of a rebuilding team, hoping to lose close games because of bad luck is perfectly rational if you want the best for your football team.
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Hoping your team loses ALL it's close games is not realistic. It's irrational to expect a team that isn't terrible on the level of once every 40 years to perform that badly. History shows us teams simply aren't THAT unlucky. Pretty much ever.

Expecting to lose SOME of your close games is perfectly reasonable, and the Redskins did lose some. They lost two close ones to Dallas and one to the Pats and one to the Vikings. Expressing disappointment that our team didn't go 0-16 makes as much sense as doing so because they failed to reach 10-6. That's not where we are.

And if we do perform that far below expectations ... it's probably more than just luck.

If the 2011 Skins had a championship caliber roster, the injuries suffered to starters this year would have been heart breaking. But, as it happened, those injuries resulted in the discovery of surprisingly good talent off the practice squad and forced our coaches to find creative scheme solutions that worked as well or better than those planned.
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I agree with this. Injuries to some of the vets were blessings in disguise. We got to see what we had in our young guys and they largely didn't disappoint. That translated into a few more wins than we might have expected with busts from our rookies. Where we disagree is that I see that as a good thing.

If the 2011 Skins had a championship caliber roster, then losing a game on a bad call by the ref hurts like hell. But, in a season like this one, the ref would be doing us a favor.

Some games are lost by near misses and bad bounces. The fan of a team with a roster in need of rebuilding should hope for those.
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We got plenty of bad bounces and got jobbed by the refs plenty of times (Lord knows Tom Brady has the refs in his pocket, and Tony Romo has never met a fumble he didn't like.) We would have needed that on an epic scale to lose all our games. It's just not realistic.

The won/lost record in a given season is just not a good indicator of the quality of the roster. “You are what your record says you are” is a catchy phrase, but it’s not true.
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Hmmm ...

Again I have to ask: "A roster that wins five games is MORE LIKELY to be better than a roster that wins zero."

Is that a fact?

I think it is. It's as indisputable a fact as the one you defended so vociferously earlier in this thread. If you are now suggesting things are not that simple ... well, I agree. Which was my original point to begin with.

He says redundantly. :)
 
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Your right #6 is a prime pick this year. If Luck and RG3 are off the board then that only leaves three other players not avalable to us at six. You think about Trent Richardson, he is probably the only player who could go in that range that we don't really have a need for. That leaves Kalil, Claiborne, Blackmon and other great options for us. Or we do something like last year and try to move down. O-lineman such as Jonathan Martin or David DeCastro, WR like Mike Floyd or a dozen of other options.
 
Fear The Spear said:
Who's the 3rd rated QB behind Luck and RG3 ? Is it Tannehill ?

And is #6 too high to spend pick on Tannehill ?
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I would think it would be Tannehill 3rd behind Luck and RG3. I like Tannehill and he has a lot of upside but he has only been a QB for a year and a half, so he would need some work. Six would be way too high for him. The only other possibility is Nick Foles out of Arizona. I think he is valued as a 2nd round pick for now but look out I think he jumps up draft boards.
 
Henry ~ It might only be considered a strawman if I'm addressing just you with my post. I was actually also talking about some other posts in this thread suggesting that our draft position was detrimental to our team's development.
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If you can quote the poster who wrote that he hoped the Skins were the crappiest team in the league, I’ll withdraw the Strawman comment.

Hoping your team loses ALL it's close games is not realistic.
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Hopes don’t have to be realistic. I hope the Skins never lose another football game ever.

However, here’s a realistic hypothetical on point:

Let’s assume that the breaks evened out and the 2011 Redskins were a true five-win team.

Let’s further assume that a couple of bad breaks would have given them three wins.

And, let’s assume that a couple of good breaks would have given them seven wins.

That’s just a two-win swing from TRUE up and down.

Which result would MOST LIKELY have been better for the team’s future? Three, five or seven wins?
 
Oldfan said:
Hopes don’t have to be realistic. I hope the Skins never lose another football game ever.
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Now we are getting somewhere. :)

I hope we win games, and then when the season is over I hope we draft well.

It is possible to do both.

However, here’s a realistic hypothetical on point:

Let’s assume that the breaks evened out and the 2011 Redskins were a true five-win team.

Let’s further assume that a couple of bad breaks would have given them three wins.

And, let’s assume that a couple of good breaks would have given them seven wins.

That’s just a two-win swing from TRUE up and down.

Which result would MOST LIKELY have been better for the team’s future? Three, five or seven wins?
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I see we've lowered the bar from If the Skins luck had been terrible this season, resulting in zero wins. That would have been a better outcome than five wins because we would be drafting higher. to Which result would MOST LIKELY have been better for the team’s future? Three, five or seven wins?

Sadly, I will continue my campaign of redundant redundancy. If we went 3-13 that would MOST LIKELY mean we were a 3-win team. There would be no way to know that we were actually a 5-win team in disguise. Because we won three.

Currently, I am happy we are not a 3-win team, because a 5-win team is better than a 3-win team. Our draft pick isn't as high, but we don't need it to be as high. (As I outlined in my little 'strawman' argument before that didn't apply to your posts. :) ). I would not, right now, switch places (rosters, coaches, etc.) with the Vikings, who ARE a three win team. They are further away than we are, despite the fact that they pick two spots ahead of us in the draft.

Would it be cool if the football gods smiled upon us and graced us with a glorious gift of a really good draft position we didn't deserve? Sure!

Do I expect that? Do I root for it? Do I watch games with that possibility in mind? No. Not any more than I hope our starting QB gets knocked out so that our backup nobody QB can turn out to be Tom Brady. Those sort of things just happen. You don't root for them.
 
Extreme said:
I agree, that's why draft position means nothing :D
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so then the Skins should immediately swap the 6th pick for the 32nd pick in every round and save some bucks! heck swap all picks for the last 9 in the entire draft!

what? there might be a conditional involved in the logic?
 
Henry said:
Now we are getting somewhere. :)

I hope we win games, and then when the season is over I hope we draft well.

It is possible to do both.



I see we've lowered the bar from If the Skins luck had been terrible this season, resulting in zero wins. That would have been a better outcome than five wins because we would be drafting higher. to Which result would MOST LIKELY have been better for the team’s future? Three, five or seven wins?

Sadly, I will continue my campaign of redundant redundancy. If we went 3-13 that would MOST LIKELY mean we were a 3-win team. There would be no way to know that we were actually a 5-win team in disguise. Because we won three.

Currently, I am happy we are not a 3-win team, because a 5-win team is better than a 3-win team. Our draft pick isn't as high, but we don't need it to be as high. (As I outlined in my little 'strawman' argument before that didn't apply to your posts. :) ). I would not, right now, switch places (rosters, coaches, etc.) with the Vikings, who ARE a three win team. They are further away than we are, despite the fact that they pick two spots ahead of us in the draft.

Would it be cool if the football gods smiled upon us and graced us with a glorious gift of a really good draft position we didn't deserve? Sure!

Do I expect that? Do I root for it? Do I watch games with that possibility in mind? No. Not any more than I hope our starting QB gets knocked out so that our backup nobody QB can turn out to be Tom Brady. Those sort of things just happen. You don't root for them.
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geez this thread was way too long!

let's get to the gist of it:

- some folks were happy with 5 wins

- some folks preferred the certainty of drafting Luck

different short-term value functions.
 
fansince62 said:
geez this thread was way too long!

let's get to the gist of it:

- some folks were happy with 5 wins

- some folks preferred the certainty of drafting Luck

different short-term value functions.
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Crazy thing is, the only certainty of drafting Luck is if we only won ONE game.
So, when we were 1-0 after beating the Giants in game 1, we should have started tanking the SECOND game of the season ?
How about after a 3-1 start ? Should we even have started tanking THEN ?
 
fansince62 said:
geez this thread was way too long!
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Translation: It's harder to convince people that losing is desirable than you and some others had hoped.

let's get to the gist of it:
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Translation: Let me tell you what you think, again.

- some folks were happy with 5 wins
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Now The Truth: Nobody on my side of the isle is happy with ONLY 5 wins. On the other side, having 1, or fewer wins, was the wish of "those fans" who convinced themselves that they are somehow the ultimate, long term thinking, enlightened, super fans. Kinda like, liberals. ;)

- some folks preferred the certainty of drafting Luck
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Others believe the certainty of drafting Luck is nullified by the uncertainty of it changing our luck, while having to root for, and embrace, failure. Some folks can acquire a taste for that. I, for one, cannot.

different short-term value functions.
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Spin.
 
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