A Burgundy and Gold Obsession
Game 12 - Philly. No biggie. Just a season in the balance ...

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    Default In a tie for the 6th Pick with the Jaguars, the tie-breaker goes to.......

    The Redskins !!
    The Redskins had the easier schedule than the Jags, which gives them Pick #6 in the 2012 Draft.

    May the Guru brains start churning.

    Here is the opponent's winning percentage, FYI :

    Jags : 128-126
    Redskins : 121-133

    Picking ahead of the Skins will be :

    Indy
    St Louis
    Minnesota
    Cleveland
    Tampa Bay

    (the only thing I'm not sure of, is who won the Tampa-Cleveland tie-breaker, as I did not take the time to figure out their strength of schedule, so their places may be interchanged. But it may not matter to us )
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    Virginia

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    Rams are cleaning house tomorrow. Spags is gone. GM is gone. No telling what the new staff would want in a trade.

    Tampa Bay coach may not be back.

    Minnesota coach may not be back.

    Let the fun of offseason begin.
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    Redskins Fan - Emeritus

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    Florida State

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    And so it begin...

    Let the speculation begin!
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    The more things change...the more they stay the same. It's like deja vu all over again.

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    Air Force

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    Yep, suuuuuuuuuuure felt good beating the Giants and Seahags
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    Formerly known as ...............Sarge

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarge View Post
    Yep, suuuuuuuuuuure felt good beating the Giants and Seahags
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    Florida State

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarge View Post
    Yep, suuuuuuuuuuure felt good beating the Giants and Seahags

    It sure did!
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    The more things change...the more they stay the same. It's like deja vu all over again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarge View Post
    Yep, suuuuuuuuuuure felt good beating the Giants and Seahags
    well..there are folks who manage for short-term return...and there are those who manage for long-term return!
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    And then their are folks who think rooting against their supposed team did anything more than point out that they are half ass fans at best.

    Half a notch above a Cowboy fan, that is.
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    "Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and **** the prom queen"

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    UTEP

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    bradfords contract is hideous compared to what they could possibly pay luck, thats a massive factor. I also wonder if Indy takes a QB tbh, if im Manning I am asking for one last shot at a superbowl, and that means getting Kalil or a defensive stud, not a pine riding qb of course if manning isnt gonna be back at full strength they take luck no doubt. minnesota needs a qb but also has other massive holes and with AP on the shelf may go with a complete rebuild. cleveland may not be sold on mccoy.Tampa has freeman and too many other holes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ax View Post
    And then their are folks who think rooting against their supposed team did anything more than point out that they are half ass fans at best.

    Half a notch above a Cowboy fan, that is.
    Booooooo!

    Good fans want the best result for their team. Being a good fan doesn't require one to check their brains at the door.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldfan View Post
    Booooooo!

    Good fans want the best result for their team. Being a good fan doesn't require one to check their brains at the door.
    And the best result is a win.

    If the draft were a sure thing you might have a point, but how many overall first picks have been utter flops? How many have taken their teams to the promised land?

    If having the number one pick overall is a sure guarentee of nothing, then rooting for your team to lose is rooting for a roll of the dice. Besides, as the song says, "If they don't win it's a shame." It's never... "If they don't win... Hurrah!"

    I think the "suck for" crowd is the worst symptom of a culture that has become obsessed with fantasy teams and video games. They think they can plug and play and everything is magically fixed. The concept of "team" is lost to them. A great "team" beats a great "player" in football every time and always will. That's why Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, and Dan Marino never got a ring or even really threatened to.
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    Army

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    Burgold is exactly right. How many #1 picked QBs have had a better career than #199 6th round pick Tom Brady?

    Draft position means nothing, and absolutely does not increase your chance of finding a star. Look how many good quality starters we got in lower rounds last year.

    I'm just not a believer that our QB of the future is coming from the first round. I believe hew will be a pure talent QB that falls to us in about the 3rd round, from a small school that made him get overlooked. If you're a superstar coming into the draft, you have a lot to live up to. Most kids don't handle that pressure well.

    Some of the most statistically dominant QBs of the past 5-10 years (Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers) were not top 10 picks.

    Romo was undrafted, and the only one of these who has not won a Super Bowl. Brady was a 6th rounder, Brees a 2nd rounder, Rodgers was picked 24th. You will see if you look at drafts from the past 10 years or so, that all of the best QBs were not top 10 picks. In fact, most were late first round or later.
    Last edited by Nobody; 01-02-12 at 10:02 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by burgold View Post
    And the best result is a win.

    If the draft were a sure thing you might have a point, but how many overall first picks have been utter flops? How many have taken their teams to the promised land?

    If having the number one pick overall is a sure guarentee of nothing, then rooting for your team to lose is rooting for a roll of the dice. Besides, as the song says, "If they don't win it's a shame." It's never... "If they don't win... Hurrah!"

    I think the "suck for" crowd is the worst symptom of a culture that has become obsessed with fantasy teams and video games. They think they can plug and play and everything is magically fixed. The concept of "team" is lost to them. A great "team" beats a great "player" in football every time and always will. That's why Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, and Dan Marino never got a ring or even really threatened to.
    Your reasoning is weak.

    If the Skins luck had been terrible this season, resulting in zero wins. That would have been a better outcome than five wins because we would be drafting higher.

    The following statement shows that you don’t understand the concept of Probability as it applies to the draft:

    If the draft were a sure thing you might have a point, but how many overall first picks have been utter flops? How many have taken their teams to the promised land?
    Certainty doesn’t exist. The Skins front office would be MORE LIKELY to draft well had the team finished with zero wins than with five. That’s a fact. It’s not speculation.

    I think the best outcome in our 16-game season was in the game against the Patriots. We battled a good team to the end and lost.

    You and others see yourselves as superior fans. I see you as inferior competitors because you are weak as strategists.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Extreme View Post
    Burgold is exactly right. How many #1 picked QBs have had a better career than #199 6th round pick Tom Brady?

    Draft position means nothing, and absolutely does not increase your chance of finding a star. Look how many good quality starters we got in lower rounds last year.

    I'm just not a believer that our QB of the future is coming from the first round. I believe hew will be a pure talent QB that falls to us in about the 3rd round, from a small school that made him get overlooked. If you're a superstar coming into the draft, you have a lot to live up to. Most kids don't handle that pressure well.

    Some of the most statistically dominant QBs of the past 5-10 years (Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers) were not top 10 picks.

    Romo was undrafted, and the only one of these who has not won a Super Bowl. Brady was a 6th rounder, Brees a 2nd rounder, Rodgers was picked 24th. You will see if you look at drafts from the past 10 years or so, that all of the best QBs were not top 10 picks. In fact, most were late first round or later.
    Extreme, I have to quibble with you on one statement. Draft position means nothing? That is no more correct than to say, as I have seen posted, that the "higher you pick the better you get...period" as if it were written in stone as an absolute truth. The draft carries with it a lot of uncertainty. You're dealing with probabilities here not certainties. Is it more likely that a higher round QB will wind up having a better career than a lower round pick? There is evidence that this is the case-the question is not whether it does but to what extent it does. This is a question of how much difference is there and to what extent you are able to make predictions based on it.

    I have read articles about this and there does seem to be a somewhat higher probability of getting a top-level QB from a 1st or 2nd round but the difference is not overwhelming. You may have a 55% better chance of getting a better QB in the first couple of rounds but that also means you have a 45% chance of getting a better QB in rounds 3 through7-that is the level of uncertainty and level of uncertainty is so high that no absolute "yes it does" or "no it doesn't" statement can be considered valid.

    The draft is a crap shoot-partially and it is an efficient grading method-partially.

    That, to me, is what makes it fun and exciting too.
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    I'm giving it a 2-4 year window. Looking for improvement in all areas. Redskins, you're on the clock.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldfan View Post
    Certainty doesn’t exist. The Skins front office would be MORE LIKELY to draft well had the team finished with zero wins than with five. That’s a fact. It’s not speculation.

    Is it? Your own post proves that it is not. You put in a qualifier, even put it in all caps, that moves it from fact to probability. Facts are immutable.

    And I don't view myself as a superior fan. Yours are the posts that reak of judgement.

    I don't think you are a better or worse fan. I think you have developed a series of rationalizations to help you cope with losing. I think it's sad because the game should be fun and escapist... it should be a cathartic release and when you warp a game into something this calculated it is bound to be less fun.

    I doubt you are having fun by losing. I know I'm not. The difference is you are in a no-win situation. If your team wins you get to be miserable, but if they lose you also get to be miserable. The worst part about it all is that you are hinging your hopes of losing on a gamble. Perhaps an educated gamble, but a gamble nontheless.

    So, no I don't see you as a lesser fan. I merely see your strategy as non-adaptive.
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    Quote Originally Posted by burgold View Post
    Is it? Your own post proves that it is not. You put in a qualifier, even put it in all caps, that moves it from fact to probability. Facts are immutable.
    We are speaking a different language. I have no idea of what you mean by a "qualifier" in this context. And this thought:

    ...that moves it from fact to probability
    ...makes no sense to me.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarge
    Yep, suuuuuuuuuuure felt good beating the Giants and Seahags
    Sarge, don't you ever get sick of being snarky?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oldfan View Post
    Certainty doesn’t exist. The Skins front office would be MORE LIKELY to draft well had the team finished with zero wins than with five. That’s a fact. It’s not speculation.
    A team with zero wins is not necessarily more likely to draft better than a team with five wins, because it's very possible a team with zero wins has a less competent front office. Had the Redskins lost a historic 12 games in a row, as some of you seem to have been hoping for, it may have been a sign that the coach and/or GM was so incapable as to make draft position irrelevant. It may have convinced our hot-headed owner to fire our coach and GM even if they weren't incapable. Something that we will see happen with a lot of 2- and 3-win teams this offseason.

    Now, one can root solely for draft position based on the reasoning you put forth. I suppose I understand that. But draft position is not the only factor that affects an offseason. There are plenty of other factors. Factors which allow one to root for wins and still expect a successful offseason.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ax View Post
    And then their are folks who think rooting against their supposed team did anything more than point out that they are half ass fans at best.

    Half a notch above a Cowboy fan, that is.
    Then there are folks that think about what is best for the long term for the team. What did those two wins get us? Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, we won two extra games. Big ****ing deal. Two extra wins in what was already a ****ty season. Again, BFD. What those two wins did get us however, is a pick further down the draft tier. Depending on who does or does not come out, we may very well need to throw in an extra draft pick or two (Who could be another Kerrigan) to get our desparately needed QB. Unless of course you want another year of "Two picks per game Grossman". That Shanny has been evaluating QB's for the past month or more tells me we're going QB. Given a choice between the two, I'd much rather have a higher draft pick than two meningless wins in a loser season

    Quote Originally Posted by burgold View Post
    And the best result is a win.

    If the draft were a sure thing you might have a point, but how many overall first picks have been utter flops? How many have taken their teams to the promised land?

    If having the number one pick overall is a sure guarentee of nothing, then rooting for your team to lose is rooting for a roll of the dice. Besides, as the song says, "If they don't win it's a shame." It's never... "If they don't win... Hurrah!"

    I think the "suck for" crowd is the worst symptom of a culture that has become obsessed with fantasy teams and video games. They think they can plug and play and everything is magically fixed. The concept of "team" is lost to them. A great "team" beats a great "player" in football every time and always will.
    The "team" concept is already there, they just lack enough pieces. Thankfully, this isn't the early 00's, where lord farquaad though he could just bring in Dieon Sanders and go to the Super Bowl. A draftee QB, even though they will be expected to start sooner rather than later, will become part of the team. Could we get Colt McKoy? Yes. We could also get Cam Newton. Point being, we need someone under center to make the team go.
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    Formerly known as ...............Sarge

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    Quote Originally Posted by Henry View Post
    Sarge, don't you ever get sick of being snarky?
    C'mon now. It's me
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    Formerly known as ...............Sarge

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    Quote Originally Posted by Henry View Post
    ...A team with zero wins is not necessarily more likely to draft better than a team with five wins, because it's very possible a team with zero wins has a less competent front office.
    That's certainly true, but it has nothing to do with the statement you quoted.


    The Skins front office would be MORE LIKELY to draft well had the team finished with zero wins than with five. That’s a fact. It’s not speculation.

    Now, one can root solely for draft position based on the reasoning you put forth. I suppose I understand that. But draft position is not the only factor that affects an offseason. There are plenty of other factors. Factors which allow one to root for wins and still expect a successful offseason.
    The reasons I've heard amount to speculation of psychological benefits. To me, they sound like Football Psychobabble. I'll take the non-speculative advantage of drafting earlier.
    Last edited by Oldfan; 01-02-12 at 11:39 AM.
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