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QBs in the 2012 Draft

Burgundy Burner said:
How much would you be willing to give up for Luck? How much for RG3 if he declares? What would be too much to give up for either player and how mad would you be if that happened?
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Well the Skins lost to MIN so throw out all of those trade scenarios. As to your question, in any other year I would be an advocate of the Skins trading down and acquiring more picks. I'm a firm believer in building through the draft and (all other things being equal) more picks typically should net a team more viable players (see NE - not necessarily a better success rate on draft picks, they just always have so many draft picks that it improves their odds.)

However, I'm bought into the fact that it is now a "quarterback-driven league." While this probably sounds cliche, it may be more true now than in years past given recent rule changes / increased emphasis on certain rules:
- More rules benefiting wire receivers (illegal contact, holding, pass interference, defenseless receiver)
- More rules benefiting QBs (no going high or low on QBs)
- More atheletic TEs creating difficult match-ups for defenses

While anything's possible, in the current era I don't think the odds are good for teams to win (especially repeat) Super Bowls with Dilfer-like game managers.

Within this context, I think the Skins needs to make a serious play to acquire a franchise QB and the draft seems to be the possible place to find one. If they project one or more QBs in the upcoming draft as a potential franchise QB, they should try to acquire him, but of course there are limits on how much they should give up. I wouldn't support them giving up as much as Schefter is saying Luck would cost. On the other hand, I don't think Luck would cost as much as Schefter is saying (my husband brought up the interesting conspiracy theory that perhaps Schefter is overstating the cost to scare some teams off - maybe a favor to Shanahan?)

I would be ok with the below very likely scenario involving a trade-up with STL to get RG3:
Trade up to #2 (STL) from #6
WAS gets 1.2.12 2600

STL gets
1.6.12 1600
2.39.12 510
1st in 2013 (~2.33.13) 580
total 2690

And while a little more painful, I would even be ok with a somewhat likely scenario involving a trade-up with STL to get Luck:
Trade up to #1 (STL) from #6
WAS gets 1.1.12 3000

STL gets
1.6.12 1600
2.39.12 510
3.72.12 230
1st in 2013 (~2.33.13) 580
3rd in 2013 (~4.97.13) 112
total 3032

In this Luck scenario, the Skins could package their two 2012 4th round picks to get back into the 3rd. They could also trade down in the 2nd in 2013 to potentially recoup their lost 2013 3rd round pick.

If it gets much richer to trade up for a QB, then the Skins might be better served to trade down and just go with the flow and play to the strengths of their draft position as they did in the last draft.

I'm still undecided on Ryan Tannehill as a trade-down target. Shanahan might think he can coach him up. Who knows?
 
Roll the dice. No trade up.

If someone they like is still there when their turn comes up, fine.
If not, hope someone is looking to move up to our spot, and do a repeat of last year to acquire more picks.

Draft BPA. Preferably at Oline, QB, Secondary. Throw in a tall WR or ILB.

Grossman-Crompton-Rookie draft pick.

Hope that the Rookie, or Crompton, can earn the starting job before Thanksgiving.
 
You know Ax, I'm most cases I'd agree with your value picks, roll with the punches approach. This time I'll have to differ though based on our team dynamics. We've not had a QB (or a coach/F.O., except Gibbs 2.0 and Marty) since the 90's. This team needs to be competitive ASAP before Snyder starts getting antsy. The best and fastest way to show tangible movement in that direction is to get a franchise QB. Absent that I think we start hearing the Shanny on the hot seat rumors next season.

If we get a franchise QB that can win an extra game or two on his own a-la Newton, it sets the stage for the future in a very overt way and hence buys more Snyder quiet time. OTOH if we build the OL to field a team capable of future success that nonetheless is capable of only getting to 5 or 6 wins next year....well, I really don't want to think about what that might mean. :(

It's sadly ironic but either course of action probably gets us to competitiveness on the same timetable. It's just a question of Snyder's maturity level and patience to let the build the OL strategy first work. I think you know my opinion about the odds on that one. ;)
 
Interesting write up on some of the QB prospects here:

For the past couple of years we have touched on two well known rules or tests when drafting a quarterback. These rules are the 26-27-60 rule and Bill Parcells test. The 26-27-60 rule refers to an NFL prospect who scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level. While the Parcells test follows this criteria:


1.The quarterback must be a senior. . .because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback
2.He must be a graduate. . .because you want somebody that takes their responsibilities seriously.
3.He must be a three-year starter. . .because you want to make sure his success wasn't a fluke and to know that he has been "the guy" for a significant period of time.
4.He must have 23 wins. . .because big numbers don't mean a whole lot if you don't win.

Obviously we don't know the Wonderlic scores yet, but who can be weeded out already from these rules?

Andrew Luck, Senior, Stanford
26-27-60: PASS, 37 career starts, 66.4 Completion Percentage
Parcells: PASS, Eligibility wise Luck is not a senior, but he is listed as one due to his early graduation. He has 31 career wins and has been the starting QB for the Cardinal for 3 years now.
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http://www.hogshaven.com/2011/12/28/2665704/which-college-qbs-past-the-test
 
Agreed, Al. To that point, I am starting to wonder about Moore. As long as I never have to ackowledge the possibility that Lanky might be right, I might be comfortable with him.

:)
 
Goaldeje said:
Agreed, Al. To that point, I am starting to wonder about Moore. As long as I never have to ackowledge the possibility that Lanky might be right, I might be comfortable with him.

:)
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You may never acknowledge it, but I will not be afraid to point it out! MUAHAHAHAHA!

Realistically, Moore will probably never be the next Drew Brees (lacks the arm strength), but I think there's a very good shot he could be a suitable NFL QB.
 
Goaldeje said:
Agreed, Al. To that point, I am starting to wonder about Moore. As long as I never have to ackowledge the possibility that Lanky might be right, I might be comfortable with him.

:)
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I'm in a weird position on this one....I don't know how to judge QB potential (not my field). so....I have to trust Shanahan...despite his recent failings in that department. If Shanahan thinks (again!) that he can win big with some vet/backup QB....I'm ok with that if it doesn't come at a big trade/signing cost.

Lanky and I may disagree on when to commit on assessing the recent draft as good....but what we have really been talking about in that other thread is the need to rebuild the entire roster mostly through the draft. and I'm all for that! that's my quandary...I want that franchise QB so bad I can see Rex boarding the bus out of town in my dreams.....but at what cost?
 
Nice breakdown of Luck vs. Griffin here:

Final Take…
Overall, I stated back in September after I saw RGIII vs. TCU, that if this guy can play at a high level all season, he’s got the kind of talent to be the one quarterback that actually makes NFL teams think twice about Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. Griffin possesses the athletic skill set to consistently create second lives for himself both inside and outside the pocket, he looks natural when asked to improvise if plays breakdown and can really hurt you with his ability to make plays down the field. Now, there are still some raw spots to his game.

However, he’s a worker from a top-tier family who wants to be great and when you add together his physical skill set and his clean character on/off the field, I feel confident giving this guy a higher grade than any quarterback from the 2011 NFL draft class.

With that being said, Luck really is a rare prospect at the position. He’s a “plus” in just about every category you evaluate a quarterback in outside of arm strength, but has the frame to get stronger and I don’t think arm strength will ever be a real concern for him at the next level. He’s a bright kid both on and off the field who deciphers information quickly. Is comfortable on the move, finds secondary targets while working his way across the field and is one of the few college quarterback prospects to come along with experience calling plays at the line and getting his team in and out of formations pre snap.

When you look at his physical capabilities and add them to his mental skill set, you have a guy who is as close to a can’t miss at the position as possible. And in my estimation looks like a future pro bowl guy who can be that franchise signal caller long term.

Therefore, as much as I like RGIII, it’s nearly impossible for me to pick any prospect over Luck in this year’s draft.
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http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Robert-Griffin-III-vs-Andrew-Luck.html&page=2
 
Outside of Griffin's size, seems like all of those things can be fixed with good coaching and film study. Dude is smart, and smart guys can do anything with enough film study.

Hate to say it, but the guy Griffin compares best to IMO is Tony Romo. Romo's a magician when the play breaks down, as we Redskins fans have experienced a zillion times. Griffin could be even better at that. It remains to be seen, however, how the football-magnet in his stomach works.
 
My fear is we miss out on RG3. I'm watching Tannehill in the bowl game, he looks pretty good.
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