When we wrote about the Suck for Luck campaign before Halloween, we suspected that the Miami Dolphins would end up with Andrew Luck, either by producing the worst record in football or via trade. Since then, though, the Dolphins have gone 4-3, pushing them away from the Luck sweepstakes. The Colts had a 33.2 percent chance of getting the first overall pick when we wrote our initial piece, but heading into Week 15, Football Outsiders estimates their chances of holding the first overall pick at 91.1 percent. If the Colts want Andrew Luck, they're going to get him.
So then, let's assume that the Colts will want to draft the best quarterback prospect of his generation and avoid blocking him with the best quarterback from the last one. We can also be pretty sure that Peyton Manning will have input into where he goes next. Why? The Colts owe Peyton Manning a $28 million option bonus that comes due before the 2012 league year, and if they were to pay him the bonus and then trade him, Manning's cap hold would be an untenable $38.8 million. If the Colts want to receive some sort of return for Manning, they will need to restructure his contract to avoid paying that bonus, and as part of those negotiations Manning will undoubtedly get some say over where he can be traded. If not, the Colts would have to cut Manning, and Peyton would get to play wherever he chooses. Either way, Peyton Manning is not going to end up somewhere he isn't willing to play.
With that in mind, we can begin handicapping the Peyton Manning trade market. Someone is going to end up with the best quarterback in NFL history, and we can narrow that destination down to one of eight teams that are likely to be running. And let's start by eliminating the 23 teams that aren't going to be involved in a Manning trade this offseason, Guess Who style.
"Does your team already have a franchise quarterback?"
Eliminates: Bears, Chargers, Eagles, Falcons, Giants, Packers, Patriots, Raiders, Saints, Steelers
It's almost impossible to envision any of these 10 teams both giving up on their current starting quarterback and then outlaying a serious amount of draft picks and cash to acquire Manning. Carson Palmer may not be a franchise quarterback, but the Raiders just gave up a first- and second-round pick to treat him like one. The Falcons might like Peyton more than Matt Ryan, but after dealing their 2012 first-round pick to Cleveland in the Julio Jones trade, it's hard to see how they could cobble together a package the Colts would accept.
"Does your team already have Tim Tebow?"
Eliminates: Broncos
Should speak for itself.
 }})
