NFL Predictions

Lanky Livingston said:

No, this is a false statement. I'm saying one season of data, namely strength of schedule data, cannot accurately predict how a team will do. One season is not a trend, my man.

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But you are betting that the Lions will produce based on one season. You can't be basing it off of anything prior, because let's face it, they haven't done anything in a very long time.

Lanky Livingston said:

Again, you are blatantly stating falsehoods. I said I think Minnesota and Chicago will not be good THIS SEASON. That has nothing to do with what happened last season.

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But you keep conveniently leaving out the part where you harped on what the Lions did last season. You know good and well that you are not thinking the Lions will win the division because you think the Packers and Bears will suck. You said for yourself, as I quoted in your own words that the Lions had a bunch of close games last season. That they were so close to being an 11-5 team last season. If you're saying I'm stating falsehoods, I'm only stating your own falsehoods. I didn't make up what you said, it's in the third post, and I quoted it in my last post.

If you were really basing them winning the division on the idea that the Packers and Bears will fail this year, then please do me a favor and explain to me how two teams playing bad shuffles an inferior team to a division title. I'm not trying to be a dick about it, I'm just curious as to the logic behind a team having success based off of another team's failures. Green Bay and Chicago losses to not translate to Detroit wins. If Philadelphia and New York suck this year, it doesn't mean we win the division, it means they had a bad season. That has no bearing on us, just like Green bay and Chicago have no bearing on Detroit.

As for this trend of Super Bowl winners following their title season with a bad season, where does that even come from? There is no trend. 7 of the last 10 champions won their division or made it to the playoffs and won a playoff game the following year. Not sure how 3 out of 10 champions failing to make the playoffs is a trend.

Matt said:

My only prediction is that the Eagles won't win the Super Bowl again this year. 52 years and counting.

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That's a given

Extreme said:

But you are betting that the Lions will produce based on one season. You can't be basing it off of anything prior, because let's face it, they haven't done anything in a very long time.

But you keep conveniently leaving out the part where you harped on what the Lions did last season. You know good and well that you are not thinking the Lions will win the division because you think the Packers and Bears will suck. You said for yourself, as I quoted in your own words that the Lions had a bunch of close games last season. That they were so close to being an 11-5 team last season. If you're saying I'm stating falsehoods, I'm only stating your own falsehoods. I didn't make up what you said, it's in the third post, and I quoted it in my last post.

If you were really basing them winning the division on the idea that the Packers and Bears will fail this year, then please do me a favor and explain to me how two teams playing bad shuffles an inferior team to a division title. I'm not trying to be a dick about it, I'm just curious as to the logic behind a team having success based off of another team's failures. Green Bay and Chicago losses to not translate to Detroit wins. If Philadelphia and New York suck this year, it doesn't mean we win the division, it means they had a bad season. That has no bearing on us, just like Green bay and Chicago have no bearing on Detroit.

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Extreme, I can't tell if you're doing this on purpose or not, but you continuously said I was basing my predictiond entirely on what happened last season, which is clearly not the case. Of course you have to base a prediction partially on what happened last season, it would be foolish not to. I think you're getting confused; I said SOS stats were meaningless when you say "Detroit has a tough SOS, so they will suck this year." It only tells part of the story, and a very small part of it at that.

But when predicting what a team will do, of course you look at their play the season before, look at their injuries and who is returning. You also look at the preseason (Matt Stafford's numbers are pretty impressive, especially a 200-yard, 2TD performance against New England):

I also never said Green Bay would suck, not sure where you're getting that from.

As for this trend of Super Bowl winners following their title season with a bad season, where does that even come from? There is no trend. 7 of the last 10 champions won their division or made it to the playoffs and won a playoff game the following year. Not sure how 3 out of 10 champions failing to make the playoffs is a trend.

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We are both wrong here - I misspoke & was thinking no team but the Patriots (twice) has won a playoff game since 2002 after winning the superbowl.

2010 Saints: lost first game
2009 Steelers: missed playoffs
2008 Giants: lost first game
2007 Colts: lost first game
2006 Steelers: missed playoffs
2005 Patriots: won first game*
2004 Patriots: won superbowl*
2003 Buccaneers: missed playoffs
2002 Patriots: missed playoffs

Matt said:

My only prediction is that the Eagles won't win the Super Bowl again this year. 52 years and counting.

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And I am thankful for that!

Watching the game right now, and it's looking like I may be right about two things. The Saints aren't going anywhere, and the Packers are going to be better than last year. One of the two has to be true, even if it is the first game. They all count now.

Packers did look good, and Saints did look sluggish, but neither HAS to be true. Saints will improve with the return of Will Smith. And you're kidding yourself if you think the Pack will play that well every week.
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Lanky Livingston said:

Packers did look good, and Saints did look sluggish, but neither HAS to be true. Saints will improve with the return of Will Smith. And you're kidding yourself if you think the Pack will play that well every week.
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If they stay healthy, I am positive the Packers will win 14 games this season. If they don't stay healthy, they win no less than 12.

As far as the Saints go, they are not getting better any time soon. Colston is gone for a while. Early reports are optimistic and saying he may only miss a month, while others say it depends on how he heals and that he could miss two months. They will lose at least half the games that he misses, no doubt in my mind.

If the Packers hadn't played so wretchedly bad on defense, the Saints would have done nothing. They were sluggish and mediocre, and still put up 34 points. As you know from watching it, they did not play as well as the stats and score would lead you to believe.

To borrow a phrase from my buddy Mike: and if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

Some random observations from this weekend -

Chicago: looked pretty dominant, I may have been a bit hasty in predicting their downfall this season. It was only game one, however, against an overrated Falcons team.

Detroit: looked dominant as well. Stafford - Johnson is going to be very money this season.

Minnesota: Looked terrible, as expected. McNabb's first pass a pick-6 is effing CLASSIC.

New Orleans: Got shell-shocked in the first quarter, but came back nicely and almost got it done. Without some questionable short-yardage play calling, they might have. Brees looks fantastic.

Indianapolis: yikes, life without Peyton is gonna be turrible for these guys.

Lanky Livingston said:

New Orleans: Got shell-shocked in the first quarter, but came back nicely and almost got it done. Without some questionable short-yardage play calling, they might have. Brees looks fantastic.

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And some equally questionable horrible calls by the refs who have been on their nuts the past few years.