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  1. #1

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    Default 2011 Tropical Weather Updates

    Message for those living in the Southeast to the Northeast. Consider yourselves to be under alert. Irene will affect these areas late in the week, the weekend, and early next week.

    The Southeast will be directly impacted. Latest model guidance is showing a landfall in the Carolinas - perhaps around the SC/NC border. It will be as a Cat 3, maybe a Cat 4. For areas inland, flooding rains will have a significant impact and all watches/warnings should be heeded. Storm surges could affect areas as much as twenty miles inland. Heavy winds will bring down large trees, destroy homes, and beach erosion will be severe.

    The Mid-Atlantic will be subjected to heavy rains and strong winds. For those in Southeast Virginia - you may think that Irene will not have a direct hit and that is certainly true as it appears now. However, let me remind you of another "I" - Isabel in Sept. 2003. She brought 105 mph winds to the area for many hours and SE Virginia was without power for four to six weeks - with a lot of damage too. It was not a direct hit, but it was bad enough. Take Irene seriously and make your preparations accordingly. Watch for storm surges, tornadoes, heavy wind damage, and flash flooding.

    For those in the DC/Balt region - take all flood watches/warnings seriously and plan accordingly. Watch for broken dams, washed out bridges, damaged roads, and tornadoes.

    For those in the Philadelphia/Delaware Valley/Poconos/Lehigh Valley/NYC/Raritan Valley regions - be prepared for extensive flooding, washed out bridges, dam bursts, damaged roads, fallen trees, and tornadic activity. For many of you in these areas, the last eight days have brought twelve to twenty-five inches of rain and the ground is saturated. The potential exists for extensive flooding along the Delaware River and connected tributaries, rivers, streams, and creeks.

    In New England, the wind threat will not exist. However, the threat of extensive flooding can't be ruled out.

    Updates as we go along.
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  2. #2
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    It looks like it will take the exact path Isabel did. For me, that means northeast quadrant, which sucks, but we need the rain so bad it's a catch-22.

    I have moved since Isabel, and now live in an area mostly free of trees, and the power lines are underground, so the impact will be nowhere near as bad as when Isabel hit. Back then, we had no power for 22 days. Sucks even worse when you consider we had a 2 year old to take care of at the time, and it was still hot as hell every day. The roads were so completely blocked off in every direction from downed trees and power lines that we were literally stuck in our neighborhood until we finally got the trees cleared out of the roads. We worked 12-16 hours every day trying to get things back to normal, and it still took about 12 days before we could get out of the neighborhood.
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  3. #3
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    I sure do miss South Florida this time of year!
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    The more things change...the more they stay the same. It's like deja vu all over again.

  4. #4

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    Irene was upgraded to a Cat 2 (100 mph) a short time ago. Full update in ninety minutes.
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  5. #5

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    Still a Cat 2 at 100 mph. No changes. More updates in the morning.
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  6. #6
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    Extreme, I don't want another Isabel either. Had 16" inches of water in the business and we went 15 days without power at home. The kids had a blast as they played flashlight tag each evening.

    Remember the neighborhood buffet. Every evening we fired the grills up and cooked as things thawed out and everyone ate whatever.

    Hopefully Irene goes to the east a little more.
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    It's looking now like it'll be cat 4 as it crosses the gulf stream, but still a cat 3 when it makes landfall. As usual, it's looking like Wilmington, NC is in the crosshairs for landfall.

    I'm still holding out hope that VB won't be in the northeast quadrant again, while idiots like my mother are making plans for hurricane parties. I was in Charleston, SC when Hugo hit in 89. I have seen first hand what these things are capable of, and I can assure you there is no reason to party over a hurricane.

    My mom said it's ONLY a category 3, as she laughed. When I informed her that Katrina was also a category 3 when it made landfall, it kinda started to sink in a little bit that this wasn't the typical weak ass hurricane we usually deal with around here.
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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by riggins44 View Post
    Extreme, I don't want another Isabel either. Had 16" inches of water in the business and we went 15 days without power at home. The kids had a blast as they played flashlight tag each evening.

    Remember the neighborhood buffet. Every evening we fired the grills up and cooked as things thawed out and everyone ate whatever.

    Hopefully Irene goes to the east a little more.
    Every day I keep hoping for a more easterly track, and it seems like the last 24-36 hours it hasn't really shifted. Not looking forward to it at all. I can handle the storm, I just can't handle all the work that comes after the fact, all the stuff that gets destroyed, etc. We have a canal behind our house that's prone to flooding, and I really don't wanna deal with it. When Ernesto hit as a TS a few years back, we got 11 inches here, and the water from the canal was less than a foot from coming into my back door. Anything more than that, we'd be having some problems.
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  9. #9
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    I've already had customers call and cancel appointments. Was talking with my insurance agent recently. When you get the storm warning (24-36 hours) you can't make any changes to your homeowner policy, plus can't add a new car to auto policy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elephant View Post
    I sure do miss South Florida this time of year!
    Pleanty of hotel rooms available, and I'll but the first round.....
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  11. #11

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    Best of luck to all in the path.

    Trust me, I know what it's like to get hit dam near directly with a CAT 4.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miles Monroe View Post
    Best of luck to all in the path.

    Trust me, I know what it's like to get hit dam near directly with a CAT 4.
    Me too. While it can be rather harrowing while the storm is happening, the aftermath was one of the finest examples of good will I have ever seen. The camaraderie during the cleanup was quite a refreshing example of human kindness. I actually enjoyed the interaction with my fellows during the aftermath/cleanup.

    God bless all those who will be affected by this storm.
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    The more things change...the more they stay the same. It's like deja vu all over again.

  13. #13

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    Interaction with land has lowered the winds to a Cat 1 - 90 mph. It will gain strength to a Cat 4 though.

    Track has shifted a bit to the east. The Outer Banks are the target now and then it could come ashore again at Cape May, NJ and through - ugh - South Jersey and into the Hudson Valley region.

    More updates as we go along.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elephant View Post
    Me too. While it can be rather harrowing while the storm is happening, the aftermath was one of the finest examples of good will I have ever seen. The camaraderie during the cleanup was quite a refreshing example of human kindness. I actually enjoyed the interaction with my fellows during the aftermath/cleanup.

    God bless all those who will be affected by this storm.
    We're you here in 04 ?
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    Yup, living in North Palm Beach for both Jeanne and Francis and the following year for Wilma.
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    The more things change...the more they stay the same. It's like deja vu all over again.

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    Hell of a year... Charley's eye came within 12 miles of my house. Pretty wild.

    I'm relieved to a great extent, as I just moved my daughter to college in Orlando. I learned not to trust the forecast track after Charley, and will feel even better once it's north of UCF.
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    Charlie was crazy. It was a concentrated punch, kinda like a tornado. It was supposed to head over toward us in Palm Beach County, but you know where it ended.

    The most surprising was Wilma. I say surprising, but I prepared like it was more serious than others were thinking it would be. After the year prior when we had 3 direct hits in Palm Beach County and a record for named storms, nobody took Wilma seriously because it was supposed to hit SW Florida as a Cat 1, maybe a Cat 2 with a direct path toward Palm Beach County. It was supposed to lose strength as it came across South Florida from the southwest coast to Palm Beach.

    I kept thinking to myself...if warm water is a hurricane accelerant, then wouldn't Wilma gain strength as it came across the Everglades? It did and by the time it hit Palm Beach, it was a Cat 3. Thank God for my experience and instincts. The day before I had moved my truck from the location I was going to leave it, parked right up next to the house as close as I could get it, and moved it to a friend's garage. The neighbor's queen palm would have made a direct hit on my truck.
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    The more things change...the more they stay the same. It's like deja vu all over again.

  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miles Monroe View Post
    Hell of a year... Charley's eye came within 12 miles of my house. Pretty wild.

    I'm relieved to a great extent, as I just moved my daughter to college in Orlando. I learned not to trust the forecast track after Charley, and will feel even better once it's north of UCF.
    [video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unV5KcSrY-I[/video]
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  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elephant View Post
    Charlie was crazy. It was a concentrated punch, kinda like a tornado. It was supposed to head over toward us in Palm Beach County, but you know where it ended.

    The most surprising was Wilma. I say surprising, but I prepared like it was more serious than others were thinking it would be. After the year prior when we had 3 direct hits in Palm Beach County and a record for named storms, nobody took Wilma seriously because it was supposed to hit SW Florida as a Cat 1, maybe a Cat 2 with a direct path toward Palm Beach County. It was supposed to lose strength as it came across South Florida from the southwest coast to Palm Beach.

    I kept thinking to myself...if warm water is a hurricane accelerant, then wouldn't Wilma gain strength as it came across the Everglades? It did and by the time it hit Palm Beach, it was a Cat 3. Thank God for my experience and instincts. The day before I had moved my truck from the location I was going to leave it, parked right up next to the house as close as I could get it, and moved it to a friend's garage. The neighbor's queen palm would have made a direct hit on my truck.
    I got lucky with Charley. I was looking at the local live radar, and saw it make the turn east. A minute later the local weather guy called it long before the national weather service did. I'm about 2 miles from the river, and it looked to be tracking right up it from what I could see, and the weather guy was saying the same. At the last second, it skipped along Sanibel, and then cut upper Captiva in half.

    I went up to port Charlotte about a week later. It looked like somebody used a giant lawn mower set at 20 feet, and cut a swath inland. That storm was supposed to hit north of tampa, and it intensified faster then any expected. We were completely unprepared. It felt like forever, sitting with my family in the walk in closet for a few hours. Go figure, they said Ivan was gonna slam my area, so I spent two full days boarding up the house, put the wife, kid, and my mom on a plane for NY. Complete miss, but I got to sit in a cave and watch the Skins play Tampa. Just me the dog, and a frige full of cold beer.

    I was in NY for Wilma for a family weeding. I had a friend standing by if the kennel where my dog was boarded had to evacuate.



    Quote Originally Posted by Burgundy Burner View Post
    [video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unV5KcSrY-I[/video]
    Thanks for that BB, though I remember it fairly well. If not for my fenced yard, I would have had a solar panel go through the bedroom windows. Guy who lives caddy cornered behind me had removed his solar system about a year prior, and had the panels stacked in his yard. Out of 20 panels, he found three. One hit my fence bending the piss out of the top rail, and luckily stopping there. It was in a direct line with the windows. Our only protection was the mattress and box-spring I used to block off the vanity area where the walk in closet is. I couldn't imagine the amount of flying glass shards that would have come right at us.

    The other two took out my neighbor Bob's pool cage, and were in the pool, along with some of the cage frame.
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  20. #20

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    The track shifted ever so slightly to the west and will pass directly over Virginia Beach if this path holds. VB would be subjected to 115 mph winds according to the latest models.

    Here in NJ, the storm could cut a path right down the middle. Cape May would get 85 mph winds. South and Central Jersey would get tropical storm winds with some gusts to hurricane strength. NYC to New England could get strong winds and flooding.

    Tomorrow is going to be the key to this storm. Rapid intensification will occur and the path will become better defined.
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