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lowered expectations

Rymanofthenorth

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Remember when we used to go into every season full of high hopes and KNOWING we would make the playoffs?

Remember when we used to KNOW that our defence would make plays in the clutch and win close games?

Remember when we KNEW our team would score more than 28 points a game?

this year im just hoping we dont embarrass ourselves on the field ala the Fecals game. That was a low point for this team, so was losing to really bad teams like the rams starting a rookie qb and feeding it to our defence.

I no longer have any hope of a competent defence that is steady and holds teams when it matters, Hell, I will be happy if we just look like we are all running the same scheme. Does anyone here truly believe that the players we have added so far on defence are going to be huge difference makers?

I have been anti 3-4 for a long time, the truth is that a 3-4 when run properly is a good scheme, but to run it properly requires knowledge of the scheme and what types of players will flourish. Not do OK, but flourish. I will try to explain why the 3-4 isnt going to work yet again , and use the simplest possible terms.

in ANY 3-4 you need at least 3 players out of your front 3 to be able to hold the point of attack, to stack blocks and shed them when the play comes their way, last season the only player who did this at least some of the time was Carriker, who also showed he was too slow off the edge to make plays. Bryant towards the end of the year was at least taking up a double team even if he didnt make many plays. Kemo was pushed around and looked weak at nose, Holliday and Daniels flashed at times but age made them brittle and has taken their endurance away. Gholston would look good for a play or two but was worn down due to lack of size.

We as fans saw very clearly that the 3-4 was not fitting our players even if some of us didnt want to admit that. some people even pointed to the inflated numbers of a few players as if somehow ignoring the key numbers would change what was happening.

Lets look at the most important stats and what can be inferred from them.

Rak- Rak was the key to this switch, Shanny used his name repeatedly as the main reason this switch would benefit us, Haslett stated several times that Raks physical package meant he would be a " demarcus ware" type player. He said that Rak had put up his 11 sack season despite not rushing the passer as much as he would in hasletts scheme and that with all the extra rushes he would easily add 5-6 sacks and perhaps even double his sack total. Yes Rak had several more rushes and played LB almost exclusively with only a couple games where he lined up like a DE in some packages, what was the result? 8.5 sacks. bottom line, the one player who was supposed to BENEFIT from this change the most, suffered.

Now lets actually Look at Rak the player, He is hard working, extremely strong (31 reps at the combine his draft year), has some decent explosion, but isnt extremely quick, has a limited toolbox of passrush moves, most based on the rip and swim. he doesnt have nifty feet , doesnt look comfortable in space with stiff hips, but makes up for it with hustle and he is relentless. he looks far better going forward than laterally and looks terrible moving backwards, awkward and almost uncomfortable looking. his absolute best move pass rushing is using a very good first step and then ripping past the Olineman and pressing the pocket, he doesnt seem to ever use check steps and you almost never see him come free almost untouched (like the great pass rushers do often). He physically is a tweener, not extremely large and bulky at 6-3 and 265 he is at the large end for OLB and the small side for a DE.

if I was only skimming film and looking at his measureables and stats I would say, he would be an outstanding OLB due to him being on the big side for an OLB and still having speed. but if i watched film I would know that he is pretty much going to be a DE who would be wasted doing anything other than rushing the passer and keeping contain. he is far less like demarcus ware and far more like Jason taylor.

The Dline- the temptation here would be to go with the obvious and show how our best DT was misused, too obvious, AH stats fell off due to lack of playing time as well as being misused but lets look a little deeper.
DT- Gholston has short arms and lacks bulk but he is quick off the ball and is what I call an all out effort guy, it means he will burn out if used too much but he will give you everything he has for 5-6 series a game and be solid in a rotation, but he cant hold the POA and doesnt scare anyone. Carter, every fan could have told you that despite looking like a prototype OLB Carter was a textbook undersized DE not an over sized olb, he showed that early on and it took until late in the season for the team to admit it. jarmon initially was told to lose weight, but they soon figured out he was not a linebacker, and Lorenzo alexander went from being a DT to an OLB? where he didnt embarrass himself but he didnt stand out either.

essentially we took what was a strength on this team (the Dline) and made it a weakness by not scheming properly. Jarmon who was a third rounder who was showing promise, Carter who was a probowl level pass rusher, AH who flashed dominance even when not used properly, Gholston who was at the least a solid rotation guy and Rak who made several huge plays at DE as a rookie playing DE part time, were all extremely misused last year and replaced by a struggling obviously unrecovered Kemo who was pushed around, a solid but unspectacular Carrikker who was by far the best 3-4 performer on the line (sad to say) and an obviously misused Rak.

at linebacker, we didnt make many plays at or near the line of scimmage percentage wise, we did have a couple guys who racked up some serious tackle numbers, players tend to do that when playing on a defence that cant stop anybody, and some people were fooled by that. Fletch still got numbers but made far less WOW plays and far more 10 yards down the field TD saving tackles, rocky made some plays but again, most of them too far down the field to matter. Landry at safety at times lined up like a backer, the problem was that teams started hitting the deep middle with regularity because he was always up tight. the biggest stats here is obviously the team stats in regards to YPcarry YP catch, first downs, and scoring.

WHAT HAVE WE DONE TO FIX THIS?

we added a pass rushing DE who is 6-4 267, ran a 4.62 40 and was known as "superman" at purdue due to his strength, Explosion: Is not a quick-twitch athlete but has enough explosiveness from his stance to challenge strong-side tackles as a pass rusher. Keeps his hips low and delivers a strong punch into his blocker's chest, giving him a strong bull rush and the ability to keep his distance from tackles on the edge. sound familiar? hmmmmm Does not have an exceptional closing burst, but his height and length make it difficult to see over or pass around him. Drops into coverage on occasion and hustles to plays but lacks great agility in space. Lacks counter pass-rush moves. hmmmmm, so are we running a 4-3 then with both him and Rak being obvious liabilities in space but being strong and fast? I doubt it, but wait it gets better....

we were extremely weak along the front 3 with no legit DL other than Carrikker so we draft ....
Jarvis Jenkins 6-4 310, now again on paper looks like a bit of a reach but not that bad , he has size, explosiveness and has played some 3-4 looks in college and he is a hard worker and good character kid.

Jenkins had a decent NFL combine, but failed to separate himself from the pack. His lack of quickness was apparent and he has trouble creating much of a pass rush against a decent offensive line. Scouts like his ability to stuff the run and that could be enough to make him a late second round draft pick, but do not be surprised if he slips into the middle of the third round.

The main concerns for Jenkins at the next level are his mechanics and conditioning. Many scouts believe that Jenkins plays a bit too high and also does not possess enough stamina to constitute being a three-down player.

Not much of an arsenal... Plays too high versus the pass, allows opponent's under his pads... Lacks stamina, more of a two-down run stuffer, is not on the field in passing situations... Top heavy... Overruns the pocket... Put up just 17 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press at the combine, was the only defensive tackle to not eclipse 20 reps.

Doesn’t have the elite size or strength to make him an obvious fit at nose tackle, but he lacks the athleticism to play end in a 3-4. Comments: Jenkins potentially has the size to play nose tackle, but he lacks the elite strength that most NFL nose tackles have. He probably isn’t ready to for a starting role immediately, but if he can add 10-15 pounds of muscle without losing his quickness he could potentially be a mid-round steal.

so yet another tweener but one who lacks any standout physicals such as great speed or strength which would make him a solid choice at either spot of need on the Dline?

Bottom line we went defence this draft, and then drafted guys who dont fit what Shanny has said (and shown) us that he wants to do. I was pleasantly surpised at our draft day trades, but I was not happy with how we used those choices.

someone PLEASE give me a reason to be excited that doesnt consist of " in 2 years we should be really good" lol
 
Great analysis. ALl I can say is that hopefully one day soon we'll switch back to the 4-3
 
Picking up right where you left off, I see. I hope you copied and pasted instead of re-writing the same post over.

Also, it appears as if you have "borrowed" from some scouting websites - you may want to at the very least quote those and maybe add links.
 
Remember when we used to go into every season full of high hopes and KNOWING we would make the playoffs?

Remember when we used to KNOW that our defence would make plays in the clutch and win close games?

Remember when we KNEW our team would score more than 28 points a game?

No, no, and, uh, no.
 
Sarge,At least if we do, we will be a great position for immediate improvement, we will have two starting quality ends, and a third who would start on a lot of teams as well as a couple Dt's whose skillset is upfield. hopefully they dont gain too many bad habits from poor coaching and playing out of position.


chris thats because you are young. lol when I was growing up that was the way it was.

Lanky, why bother? scouting websites are easily accessible to anyone with google and a desire to use it. and the post isnt just about the suckiness of the defence last season but why it sucked and why its going to suck again. thanks for coming out.
 
Lanky, why bother? scouting websites are easily accessible to anyone with google and a desire to use it. and the post isnt just about the suckiness of the defence last season but why it sucked and why its going to suck again. thanks for coming out.

Easily accessible to read...not plagiarize as your own thoughts. :)
 
I think you are not asking yourself the right questions.

Kerrigan:
Tweener who plays the run strong and has a burst.
Is Kerrigan an upgrade over Alexander?

Jenkins:
Jenkins played a 2 gap system in Clemson and will play a 2 gap in our 3-4.
Is Jenkins an upgrade over Gholston?

Gomes:
Covers the slot very well, good special teamer, and is versatile.
Is Gomes an upgrade over Moore?

Thompson:
A ball hawk with good coverage skills - best in nickle package.
Is Thompson an upgrade over Westbrook or Buchanon?

Neild:
One tough SOB built to be a NT.
Is Neild an upgrade over Kemoeatu?

If the answer to ANY of these questions is yes then we will have an improved defense. How much I don't know, but stop putting so much stock in this 4-3/3-4 debate stuff. Players are not pigeoned into one or the other. Some can only do one based upon their abilities. Those players on our team who can only play the 4-3 (Carter) are or will be gone and replaced by those who can. Your argument is none of these drafted players fits a 3-4. I disagree. Only time, and their performance, will tell if I am right or you are right.
 
lanky, it wasnt plagiarising, I was making an argument, perhaps next time I will footnote everything just for you. but anyone who cant read scout language probably doesnt follow much football. I tend to assume that most of the people here know when someone is quoting a scout or making stuff up themselves simply by the language used.

Skins fan
I like how you think even though I dont agree,
it would not be very difficult to be better than last year, thats not what I am concerned about. i am concerned about building a team built to win for the long haul, none of the moves we made were what I would consider drastic improvements. I could kerrigan staying, but I do think Jenkins will either bust or we need to go to more of a 4 man front.

Kerrigan- we already have him on the roster just a bit shorter, his name was Rak. why would you draft an guy who is pretty much the exact same player? an upgrade over a converted DT is not saying much. I think he will be solid but he will not be as effective as he would be playing DE. the holes in his game dont mean he wont or cant be good they mean its not likely and he will need to beat the odds, the guy he was compared to most was aaron kampman, you know the guy GB let go after they went 3-4? we still have no LB who is decent in coverage,

Jenkins played a 2 gap system in college, he also put up 17 reps of 225 at the combine, I dont know how carefully you follow that stuff but 17 would be a great number for DB maybe even a linebacker but for a guy expected to play DE or NT in a 3-4 not so much. in contrast Rak put up 31 reps in his draft year. in a 3-4 benchpress becomes more important because you arent moving upfield, you are holding the point a lot.

as for putting stock in the 4-3 vs 3-4 debate, its not a debate a debate would infer that there was an argument, my contention (which was borne out statistically last season beyond even a shadow of a doubt), was that players have skillsets, and if you ignore that skillset because you like a players measureables or his stats in college, and try to fit a square peg in a round hole? you are set up for failure. My argument is that yet again we have not taken those things into account and this will be why yet again we will not be very good on defence if we insist on running 2 gap 3-4 with incorrect players.

a comparison for jenkins, Jenkins has good good quickness and athleticism for a large man, he has a good first step but isnt an explosive hitter or a strong enough guy to stack the poa, another guy who was a lot like him was Dwayne Robertson formerly of the jets, he too had good legs but not much upper body strength, he was ok in a 4-3 but when the jets asked him to play inside in a 3-4 he struggled and couldnt get off of blocks but he was too slow to play DE and now hes gone, not the sort of guy you take when there were starting calibre options on oline still available. imho
 
Ry.....

1) I'll agree the move tro the 3-4 was questionable

2) We'll at least have to wait and see what happens with the revamp, though I agree it appears we don't have a viable NT to anchor the whole thing and our LBs are likely to be beaten in space

the one thing I disagree with is the emphasis placed on the previous defense.....the 4-3 we ran for years wasn't all that good. it was a bend but don't break defense...that broke a lot of the time. true...the linemen we have are more suited to a 4-3, but that's not saying much. carter got blown off the line or over-ran the pass rush plenty of times from the DE position, Ghoulston could never hold the POA, daniels never applied all that much pressure. AH? did he play fot the Skins? now....there were times the defense ranked high...but we all know it was never a dominant defense and that it constantly broke down when it counted.
 
I agree with fansince62 that our 4-3 was nothing special. Stats be damned nobody in this league was worried about our defense, and it’s been that way for a looooong time. So while we’re blowing everything up and starting fresh we might as well do the defense too. 4-3, 3-4, stacked 4, 5-3, I don’t care what we run, just fix it.

We had some of the pieces in place for a decent 4-3 defense but don’t kid yourself, we still needed to fill a lot of holes and upgrade talent at a lot of positions. As I see it other than NT it would be easier to fill holes on the front seven in a 3-4. Run stopping DE’s that go about 300lbs aren’t that hard to come by to slot in to a 3-4. On the other hand DE’s that have the size to stop the run AND the ability to be a legit pass rushing threat like you would want in a 4-3 are few and far between. That’s why we see so many teams roll the dice on those type guys at the top of the draft every year (most never pan out). On the other hand the draft seems to be full of speedy undersized “tweeners” who seem tailor made for 3-4 LBs. There are just as many trade offs either way.

So we aren’t set to run a top level 3-4 at this point, but I’m seeing some nice movement in that direction. We have attempted to find some young talent to grow into the NT role and we drafted a DE who should be able to make the transition to LB in our 3-4. Sure there are still questions at ILB but we can’t answer every question at once. We would have the same questions in the secondary regardless of what scheme we ran.

Most of us wanted to see progress. Sometimes you can measure that in wins right away. Most of us claimed that we would be patient as long as the team seems to have a plan and would just stick to it. Well, here’s our chance.
 
Bottom line with Jenkins: you can fix strength. Whether or not he can play will be the question.
 
We criticized Snyder for going after "the dramatic".
We criticized Cerrato for going after the just plain stupid in the draft. (he only got lucky with Rak).

Now, when you have a team working on rebuilding you don't go for the dramatic, stupid, or just plain lucky. You build from the ground up using what you have and getting what you need. That means patience. That means getting hard working, solid, YOUNG talent that can step in and be the foundation of a new team. That is what they are doing.

Not to sound too harsh rymanofthenorth, but your criticism of the players selected comes across as you knowing something the coaching and talent scouts don't.

You need bookend OLBs in a 3-4 and we now have that. Rak needed a competent player on the opposite side who can do what he already does. We got that. It is a key element to the 3-4; that and a NT who eats up space and can hold or beat double and triple teams.

As far as your comment about needing 3 at the point of attack to hold the line, the only one we had in place was Carriker and he badly needs help. That is why they got Jenkins and also why they got Neild. That is why Fat Albert will be gone and Kemoeatu will be gone.

Lastly, to go back to Kerrigan, if you have 3 solid people at the point of attack holding the line it means diddly if you don't have MORE THAN ONE person on your team who can get to the quarterback.

What they did makes sense. True, only time will tell and I am an optimist, but there has been so much that has gone wrong with this team for so long that seeing a winning plan formulated and acted upon that gives up the near term to be a force in the long term is a call for optimism.
 
Didn't we have a top ten defense just a couple of years ago?

Well, outside of the fact that defensive rankings can be misleading, our D hasn't been a real threat since the 2004 & 2005 seasons, if we're going to be honest (Read: nobody was scared to play us). 2004 was probably the best defense we've had this decade, but unfortunately it was coupled with an utterly impotent offensive attack, rendering it pretty much useless.

In 2005, the defense took a step back but that was offset by a new-found running game, which took us to the playoffs. In 2006, when it was all supposed to come together, the defense fell apart (in huge part due to the departure of Antonio Pierce, who no matter how much Redskins fans love to hate, was the key to our nasty D in 2004).

Skinzfan is the most right IMO - we should not be focusing on who we're bringing in, but the type of players we're bringing in. They are all solid character guys, willing to do whatever it takes. These are the type of players you build around, not me-first guys like Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth.
 
please tell me you arent putting that much in to reps at the combine. there are many reasons that players dont do well there...lack of interest, not wanting to be treated like cattle, etc.

youre pretty critical on Rak and honestly you might be the only person I know who is that critical. its obvious you have grievances with this team, the coaches, players and schemes used but saying that Rak "isnt extremely quick" makes me wonder why so many OL had to hold him in order to stop him from getting around them.


players are weak at bench because they are weak in the upper body, its not easy to gain strength.

Umm there are few things you can really use to gauge how well a player will play however there are also what coaches call baseline stats, those baselines will determine whether a player will struggle or not, for instance speed is not always the best measurement or a player but you dont see any WR in the NFL or corners who run a 4.9 40 yard dash. its the same with bench press, look at Selvish Capers, he was a second round graded talent until he did very poorly on all the strength tests at the combine, he played well against weaker competition , but in the NFL, even the backups would have been pretty good in the NCAA and he couldnt break in to the Skins Oline despite not very good competition. is it the be all and end all ? no but when a player like jenkins who played an upfield style (yes they two gapped a bit but he also used a lot of movement if you watch his hilites) suddenly is asked to stack and shed, you will see problems, the stack and shed movement is pretty much a benchpress, and in a 3-4 two gap system you cant hide upper body weakness. thats my point about this guy, 17 reps is extremely weak for an interior linemen in a 3-4 in the NFL, remember he will be going against guys who put up twice as many reps in most cases.

as for Rak, he may be my favourite player taht doesnt mean im blind to the flaws in his game, he has a great first step but he doesnt redirect quickly or fluidly, (this is partly why he gets held rather than comes off blocks clean) he also uses the same 2 moves the majority of the time. he is a great straightline rusher, and would be better served playing from a 3 point stance where he could he his strength and leverage more. he is a solid but not spectatcular linebacker who works hard and is relentless, often he will wear guys down because he is so strong that he simply overpowers guys, however he s not great in space and looks awkward moving backwards.
 
Ry.....

1) I'll agree the move tro the 3-4 was questionable

2) We'll at least have to wait and see what happens with the revamp, though I agree it appears we don't have a viable NT to anchor the whole thing and our LBs are likely to be beaten in space

the one thing I disagree with is the emphasis placed on the previous defense.....the 4-3 we ran for years wasn't all that good. it was a bend but don't break defense...that broke a lot of the time. true...the linemen we have are more suited to a 4-3, but that's not saying much. carter got blown off the line or over-ran the pass rush plenty of times from the DE position, Ghoulston could never hold the POA, daniels never applied all that much pressure. AH? did he play fot the Skins? now....there were times the defense ranked high...but we all know it was never a dominant defense and that it constantly broke down when it counted.

1- I figured you would lol.
2- thats the problem, we arent revamping anything a revmap would suggest we get players that fit what we wnat not try to convert more guys.

now about our former defence, it was far better than many people give credit for, remember the talent level was never extremely high, if you place draft picks and free agents (selectively) and you put resources into something you get better results, our issue was that we had a FO that was always "one player away" this meant that instead of filling holes with guys who would be here 5-6 season we got a lot of reycled guys for 2 and if lucky 3 years.

as much as I liked Carter, I agree he wasnt perfect, but he was better than the guy who replaced him, Gholston is a rotation guy, and played far better at 4-3 dt that 3-4 de. it wasnt a great defence (as I have said before we needed at least a fs and a sam before) but it was worlds better than the gong show we call a defence now.
 
We criticized Snyder for going after "the dramatic".
We criticized Cerrato for going after the just plain stupid in the draft. (he only got lucky with Rak).

Now, when you have a team working on rebuilding you don't go for the dramatic, stupid, or just plain lucky. You build from the ground up using what you have and getting what you need. That means patience. That means getting hard working, solid, YOUNG talent that can step in and be the foundation of a new team. That is what they are doing.

Not to sound too harsh rymanofthenorth, but your criticism of the players selected comes across as you knowing something the coaching and talent scouts don't.

You need bookend OLBs in a 3-4 and we now have that. Rak needed a competent player on the opposite side who can do what he already does. We got that. It is a key element to the 3-4; that and a NT who eats up space and can hold or beat double and triple teams.

As far as your comment about needing 3 at the point of attack to hold the line, the only one we had in place was Carriker and he badly needs help. That is why they got Jenkins and also why they got Neild. That is why Fat Albert will be gone and Kemoeatu will be gone.

Lastly, to go back to Kerrigan, if you have 3 solid people at the point of attack holding the line it means diddly if you don't have MORE THAN ONE person on your team who can get to the quarterback.

What they did makes sense. True, only time will tell and I am an optimist, but there has been so much that has gone wrong with this team for so long that seeing a winning plan formulated and acted upon that gives up the near term to be a force in the long term is a call for optimism.


actually I never criticised Cerrato for going after the dramatic I cirticised him for only draft well early , paying no attention anything after round two for the most part and signing Free agents who didnt fit, that and being an asshat.

I completely agree that when rebuilding you need hardworking guys with mental toughness who wont quit, thats not even remotely what I am arguing what I am arguing is that our talent evaluators and coaches havent exactly gota great track record for finding guys to fit a scheme and even worse the had no clue about fitting a scheme to the players they had.

thats not harsh at all , I actually think its rather obvious that I knew something that apparently our coaches and scouts didnt, and frankly that scares me. I am a semipro football player and coach who watches my favourite team and applies knowledge I have gained over 20 years of playing, how the heck can I see something and diagnose it so quickly when millioniare coaches who have more access to film and more "knowledge" abjectly fail to do so? whats more , I am not the only informed fan go back and read the 3-4 threads from two seasons ago, myself and several guys on this forum pretty much nostrodamused exactly what was gonna happen, and it did.

about the 3-4 you do need bookend OLB's but the two need slightly different skillsets, one needs to be able to cover at least competently, as you cant always rush the same 2 lbs or you may as well run a 5-2, its not like high school or even some colleges where evryone is interchangeable, you have to have someone who is at least comfortable in coverage and now we dont we have two guys with pretty much the exact same skillset and exact same deficiencies. but more important you NEED dlinemen who will not only keep the linebackers clean but who can generate at least some pressure while staying sound, we dont have that. we might have a decent pair of NT's by dceent I mean can at least grab a double team but we have no linemen other than Carrikker who are even decent right now. neild is a seventh rounder, he might be solid we will know when camp rolls out, Jenkins and his 17 reps I have serious doubts about, I hope he is good though.
 
so sean taylor was weak in the upper body? funny, nobody has EVER said that about him before and he put up the bar 11 times before stopping.

mario manningham ran a 4.6 40 and has had a pretty good NFL career so far.

felix jones did 8 reps and he doesnt seem to have "upper body strength" issues.

fred smoot did ONE rep and his upper body seems just fine.


again you are being extremely selective in what you read and choose to argue, you are not making the same argument that you started with.

Taylor was a DB and I believe he put up 16 reps which would be great for a safety, especially a free safety, his baseline would be his 3 cone score and his 40 time not bench.

Manningham is decent at 4.6 is not 4.9 which would be the comparison at 4-9 he wouldnt even be in the league. Rice ran a 4.6 not sure what your point is there, if rice ran a 4.9 maybe you would have one.

felix jones is a running back, again 3 cone and 40 would be more indicatove of his abilities , perhaps squat for leg strength and broad jump for explosion.

Smoot was a corner, corners tend not to have to hold the point of attack against olinemen, you may want to rethink your examples Mike.

now if you can start naming Dlinemen who were far weaker than they should be who still managed to be succsessful you would have an argument, Mcoy only put up 22 but he is a movement DT, Harris put up 25 before being drafted for the bears, but neither of those guys would be considered as 3-4 linemen.
 
you may want to rethink your bias, ryman. its obvious you want to hate the 3-4 and no matter what anyone says to you all you are going to do is skew it, twist it and try to turn it so the 3-4 still sucks.

This is what I was trying to say earlier, but apparently I came off a little antagonistic (apologies for that). Ryman just seems like he wants to hate the 3-4 no matter what; I think the only way he'd be complacent is if we signed the entire Steelers' defense as FAs.
 

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