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Who will win the Kentucky Derby?

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Nobody

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Ok, so I have picked 11 consecutive Kentucky Derby winners, and plan to make it twelve this weekend. I don't even consider odds, because odds don't win races.

For this weekend's race, I keep hearing Uncle Moe getting hyped up. I just don't see it happening. Uncle Moe doesn't have that look that big time horses almost always seem to have in common. The muscle is lacking and he has very spindly legs that look apt to snap in the long run.

That being said, my pick for the winner is Animal Kingdom. The pedigree isn't impressive by any stretch of the imagination, but I haven't seen a horse this solid since I started watching horse racing. This beast is pure muscle, almost like they feed him steroids. Not only that, but he's longer than most of the horses. Long horse=longer strides. He also has endurance on his side, since he has run more of the longer tracks than any horse in the Derby, so stamina won't be an issue.

Another horse I like is Pants on Fire. Really quick, good on dirt, and you can't knock any horse that has Seattle Slew and Secretariat in his bloodline.

So my top pick is Animal Kingdom, but if he collapses or gets squeezed out early, Pants on Fire will take it.

I just saw Calvin Borel is riding out of the third post. Never a good sign for other jockeys, because the crazy bastard is the best rail rider alive.
 
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Lanky Livingston said:
11 consecutive? But you're struggling to make ends meet? Let me introduce you to a website: www.bodog.com
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I only ever bet on the three Triple Crown Races. I don't get any more involved than that. When I had the money to, I would have ended up getting in over my head if I got fully involved, I know I would have. Now, I have no money, so it isn't an issue :D

This year, I will do exactly as I did last year - bet the minimum. On second thought, Animal Kingdom is 30-1 right now. Hell, I may spring for a $10 bet :laugh:

in 2009, my mom was at the track for the race. I told her to put money on Mine That Bird, so she put down only a $2 bet, and put $100 on Friesan Fire. She still got just over $100 from Mine That Bird, but since she threw away so much on a loser, she barely broke even for the day. I love to remind her all the time what could have been if she had put that money on Mine That Bird. I didn't know squat about the horse other than it was a late exploder, and being ridden by Calvin Borel. Always a recipe for a win.
 
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Animal Kingdom is 175/1 to win right now on Bodog. Wowsers. I may place a $10 bet just for the hell of it.

EDIT: Whoops, that's for the Triple Crown.
 
True story: in 2003, when the longshot won the Derby (Funny Side? I think that was the horse), I just missed out on a huge payday.

We used to go to Dania Jai-Alai a lot to play poker, and were "regulars." We had a couple waitress friends who worked there who we hung out with from time to time. Well, the week before the derby, I told my waitress friend Suzie to "put $50 on the longshot" for me. Well, you can imagine how excited I was when Funny Side took the race, and I thought I had just won $1500 on a $50 bet! Well, turns out Suzie thought I was joking, and did not place the bet. She also did not think she owed me $1500 either...LOL.

Oh well...not like I'd be retired or anything, just would have been nice to have $1500 extra as a new grad student.
 
MikeSr619 said:
youve picked 11 kentucky derby winners in a row? i think if that were true i would bet the farm after i got #5 right.
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You see, the problem is I am superstitious.

I keep telling myself every year - ok, next year I'm betting big. Then when Derby time rolls around again, I never have the balls to pull the trigger. I don't know, just thinking I'd rather win a couple hundred every year than risk pissing away what I can't afford to spend and end up breaking my streak and losing.

The horse Lanky was talking about was Funny Cide. That was the only year I had no money at all to bet. A family friend of my Mom called me up and asked who he should go for. He said he'd make a huge bet, and split the winnings if I picked right.

I told him to put it on Funny Cide. Naturally, when he won, I figured it was gonna be a good payday. I call him up celebrating, and he was practically in tears. He had driven to the off track betting site to place his bet, and got stuck in traffic and never made it. Had to listen to the entire thing on the radio, then go nuts when he heard who won. Just one of those ****ty times where fate ****s you in the ass :laugh:

Here's a clip of Animal Kingdom. I don't know how much any of you know about horse racing, but this one runs like Seabiscuit. Last to first in a hurry and still wins by two lengths. http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown2011/news/story?id=6261895

Anyone interested in a trifecta?
Animal Kingdom 30:1
Pants on Fire 20:1
Watch Me Go 50:1

Dialed In is a beast, but no stamina. Uncle Moe is too sluggish and weak and lacks experience, because he's a turf track racer. Out of all of the so called favorites, Nehro is the only one I expect to have a decent showing, and the only one in the top 5 I think has a realistic shot - but he's not going to win either.
 
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I am with you on this Extreme. I too, have had insane luck betting the Derby every year. The greatest sporting event on earth.

I will likely bet $1k on Animal Kingdom to win, and will cut you in should I do so.
 
I'm guessing it will be Cabbage by a head or Pinocchio by a nose.
 
Lanky Livingston said:
I can tell you who WON'T win, Uncle Mo: http://deadspin.com/#!5799325/hell-no-uncle-mo-wont-go
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Well, so far that's one prediction that was accurate lol. I said there was no way in hell he could win, and this seals that up.

Things just got real interesting.......John Velazquez was a big reason Uncle Mo was an early favorite - his riding style is a good fit for the derby, because of how he performs on similar tracks. Since Uncle Mo was scratched, he will now be riding Animal Kingdom.

My early pick is looking better every second. The jockey change immediately made Animal Kingdom go from 30:1 to 14:1.
 
i am gonna go out on a limb and say the horse that crosses the finish line first will most likely win
 
That's terrible news for Animal Kingdom. I was hoping to hit huge today.

Still betting $1k on Animal Kingdom to win, $200 on Pants on Fire to win.

You are getting cut in on profits Extreme.
 
I put $10 down at 30:1 for ****s & giggles. Glad I didn't wait! LOL
 
Lanky Livingston said:
I put $10 down at 30:1 for ****s & giggles. Glad I didn't wait! LOL
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It doesn't matter what the odds were when you bet. Unfortunately, all that matters is what the odds are when the opening bell rings.

Everyone that bets on the winning horses--win, place and show gets paid the exact same odds with very few exceptions--like the establishment you are betting at.
 
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McD5 said:
It doesn't matter what the odds were when you bet. Unfortunately, all that matters is what the odds are when the opening bell rings.

Everyone that bets on the winning horses--win, place and show gets paid the exact same odds with very few exceptions--like the establishment you are betting at.
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I was actually wondering about this earlier. It sucks that it isn't what the odds were when you make the bet.
 
Someone is now reporting that the odds have dropped all the way down to 6:1. Man, that sucks so hard.

If that's the case, I am only betting $500 on him to win, and $200 on Pants on Fire. What terrible luck!

I am off to the local jai-alai now to bet and watch the race. Enjoy the most exciting 2 minutes in sports everyone!
 
McD5 said:
Someone is now reporting that the odds have dropped all the way down to 6:1. Man, that sucks so hard.

If that's the case, I am only betting $500 on him to win, and $200 on Pants on Fire. What terrible luck!

I am off to the local jai-alai now to bet and watch the race. Enjoy the most exciting 2 minutes in sports everyone!
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Look on the bright side - I was picking Animal Kingdom when it wasn't the cool thing to do :laugh:
 
Damn, Extreme. Remind me to pay closer attention next year. Nicely done!
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Goaldeje said:
Damn, Extreme. Remind me to pay closer attention next year. Nicely done!
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Thank you, thank you :D

One of these years I'm gonna piss away a ton of money on my pick. Of course, that will be the year my streak ends :laugh:
 
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