• Welcome to BGO! We know you will have questions as you become familiar with the software. Please take a moment to read our New BGO User Guide which will give you a great start. If you have questions, post them in the Feedback and Tech Support Forum, or feel free to message any available Staff Member.

Crucial Decision?

Henry said:
Boone, if the correct focus is ONLY the future, you're 100% correct.

Are you writing off this year? If you are, then I see where you are coming from.

But we're not coming off a 3-13 year. We don't have a brand new head coach and a new roster full of fresh faces. That's the type of team that blows up a position as crucial as QB and staffs the roster with a bunch of hopefuls.

Most other teams have to maintain a balance between the present and the future. Again, you seem to be totally writing off the posibility that we could be good this year. If we are 8-2 and Campbell with 25 TDs goes down for a few weeks, you REALLY want a guy who's never taken a snap in the pros to step in, on the off chance that he might miraculously turn out to be our franchise QB in '10?

Tom Brady is the exception, not the rule. You simply can't base a strategy for success on exceptions. That's a recipe for failure.

I think I've made it clear that I have seriously lost faith in the front office of this team. But that's not based on the fact that they haven't completely thrown away convention and staked our future on a couple lottery tickets. It's because they are doing a lousy job. Keeping two fan-favorite nobodies on the team over a proven vet at QB won't make them look less lousy. It will just make them look desperate.
Click to expand...


Look up Collins stats Henry.

He's barely played in the NFL :) Seriously. Is he better prepared than Colt or Daniels? No question. But he's hardly a living wealth of NFL game experience. I reject your core argument, that if JC goes down for the season and we have to go to #2, that the seasons over if Collins, and ONLY Collins, is the guy we turn to.

I'm arguing that Collins is solid, but the statistical likelihood is that if our starter goes down for the season, we aren't going anywhere anyway. I'd also say that the assumption that we absolutley couldn't compete with a guy like Brennan in there flies in the face of evidence. Look at Flacko and Ryan last year. Explain the difference to me.

Other than that we're likely to release one of them before we can identify their potential?

As to Brady, of course you're absolutely right. But we'll never experience that glorious exception if we continue to look only one season ahead. Talent sometimes takes time to make itself apparent. I guess I fear we'll never experience that 'incredible find' because no one's ever here long enough for it to make itself apparent.

For the record, I know you're the most reasonable of skeptics. Btw... the intent of the thread isn't to even to suggest this is what the Skins should do (not to sound like a copout), but rather just a 'thought' about the approach. Seriously, Collins, on the surface, is a 'no-brainer' - I'm just challenging the 'conventional wisdom' a bit here.

Not like I've even necessarily convinced myself. :crown:
 
Last edited:
I don't think the Pats have written off any of the last several years when Cassel was their backup and I think you could make a serious argument that no one had a clue he was going to be what he turned into when Brady went down last year. Prior to that he had all of 39 attempts over 3 seasons.

And you convinced me Boone. :)
 
Last edited:
Boone said:
Look up Collins stats Henry.

He's barely played in the NFL :) Seriously. Is he better prepared than Colt or Daniels? No question. But he's hardly a living wealth of NFL game experience. I reject your core argument, that if JC goes down for the season and we have to go to #2, that the seasons over if Collins, and ONLY Collins, is the guy we turn to.
Click to expand...

Two years ago he put up passer ratings of 144.6, 124.8 and 104.8 during four straight wins to get us into the playoffs. He's proven he can pick up for JC during crunch time. I think that's not insignificant.

I'm arguing that Collins is solid, but the statistical likelihood is that if our starter goes down for the season, we aren't going anywhere anyway.
Click to expand...

Again, we were 5-7 when our starter went down last time and Collins took us somewhere. What if this time we are instead 8-4 when the starter goes down? We know Collins can pick up right where Campbell left off. We know this. We do not know that about our sixth round draft pick from two years ago, or anything else for that matter.

I'd also say that the assumption that we absolutley couldn't compete with a guy like Brennan in there flies in the face of evidence. Look at Flacko and Ryan last year. Explain the difference to me.

Other than that we're likely to release one of them before we can identify their potential?
Click to expand...

First of all, Flacco and Ryan were the first two QBs picked in the draft. They weren't long shots to succeed, relatively speaking.

Second of all, if they are your examples of young-guys-turned-franchise QBs we should not be so prepared to toss Campbell out the door. Look at their numbers. JC is pretty much exactly the same calibre QB as either of them.

As to Brady, of course you're absolutely right. But we'll never experience that glorious exception if we continue to look only one season ahead. Talent sometimes takes time to make itself apparent. I guess I fear we'll never experience that 'incredible find' because no one's ever here long enough for it to make itself apparent.
Click to expand...

You don't plan for incredible finds. That's what makes them incredible. We don't keep Collins around because he might be the next Kurt Warner. We do it because it's the right thing to do. We make the best decisions we can, and if we catch lightning in a bottle, God bless us all. :) But you can't plan for it. That's like buying 100 lottery tickets a week instead of putting $100 in the bank, because what the guy down the street won is more than your savings plus interest.

For the record, I know you're the most reasonable of skeptics. Btw... the intent of the thread isn't to even to suggest this is what the Skins should do (not to sound like a copout), but rather just a 'thought' about the approach. Seriously, Collins, on the surface, is a 'no-brainer' - I'm just challenging the 'conventional wisdom' a bit here.

Not like I've even necessarily convinced myself. :crown:
Click to expand...

Well, I'm not that married to any plan myself. You just took a strong opening position so I responded with a strong one. :)

I do think the annual love-fest with underdog QBs tends to get out of hand, but that's why we love the offseason, I suppose. All that potential, and we haven't ****ed it up yet. :)
 
Last edited:
Neophyte said:
I don't think the Pats have written off any of the last several years when Cassel was their backup and I think you could make a serious argument that no one had a clue he was going to be what he turned into when Brady went down last year. Prior to that he had all of 39 attempts over 3 seasons.

And you convinced me Boone. :)
Click to expand...

I think the Patriots had a clue.

I don't think our scouting department compares to theirs in any way, shape or form though.
 
Henry said:
First of all, Flacco and Ryan were the first two QBs picked in the draft. They weren't long shots to succeed, relatively speaking.
Click to expand...

As were Heath Schuler and Trent Dilfer (yes, I went there, painful as it is). Even young QBs drafted high can and do fail.

I think Flacco and Ryan have given a lot of people a big case of recency bias. Before that, there was Marino and Big Ben in Pittsburgh, and they were notable precisely because of the rarity of what they did. Look at John Elway or Troy Aikman, and those guys were wildly successful, ultimately.

And for every Tom Brady there are a million Joey Harringtons. We just don't remember most of them because they're so forgettable, unless you are a fan of the team that was burned.
 
The point isn't that Brady was a young unknown QB, therefore young unknown QB's = Brady.

We're not idiots here people :)

The point is, if you constantly move your young QBs in favor of 'this season's backup', you may never find your Brady.
 
Boone said:
The point is, if you constantly move your young QBs in favor of 'this season's backup', you may never find your Brady.
Click to expand...

I get it, but for some reason I find myself thinking of the QB situation in terms of investing, one of my other interests (thus the comments about "recency bias").

I think that it's important to diversify the "portfolio", and that can include a small amount of high risk high reward, but it's foolhardy to load up 100% frontier microcap value.

I think it makes sense to keep a project around in the hopes it pans out, but I don't think the entire QB roster should be filled with gambles.

We need the core large caps, and maybe even some bonds, too.
 
techboy said:
As were Heath Schuler and Trent Dilfer (yes, I went there, painful as it is). Even young QBs drafted high can and do fail.
Click to expand...

Well, that's why I added in 'relatively speaking.'

While still a crap shoot, 1st rounders do pan out more often than later round picks. My point was that if we are trying to make the case that we should fill our QB roster with a 6th rounder and a rookie free agent, citing the success of recent 1st rounders is probably not the way to go.

Brady is the best ammo in this debate. But he's far more rare than Marino or Aikman.
 
Boone said:
The point is, if you constantly move your young QBs in favor of 'this season's backup', you may never find your Brady.
Click to expand...

So what you do is, you give Brennan a chance to beat out Collins for the #2 spot. If he does, then you've got that young prospect backup. If he doesn't, he wasn't that good anyway.

But I wouldn't just drop Collins because he's old and the other guys are young.
 
Sarge said:
We are a sorry assed state of affairs, and it's not the teams fault, it's the front office. Or what passes for a front office on this team. You're right in that we don't plan for the long run, nor do we have any kind of identity. Are we a run team? Run and shoot? Fun and gun? I mean, just what the hell does the danny want this team to be?

The scary part is, he either doesn't know or doesn't care. Personally, I thnk after 10 years he's learned very damned little as a hands on owner, which is what he's wanted to be from day 1.

As for the QB situation I, like everyone else, havehad hopes for years that we could have the frnachise QB that we haven't had since Theismann 25 years ago. But our latest hope, Jason Campbell, looks more and more like a long line of potetial heirs that stayed a few years and then crapped out
Click to expand...

Reading this post makes me want to file an insurance claim for therapy. Think you've helped me realize what really worries me. It is the lack of direction this team has. Each year we make changes in the roster and or coaching staff, but with what goal? I think Danny has learned a little, but
would benefit from studying the football team model that the Rooney family uses. We will be a mediocre team until there is direction, continuity, and FO leadership in Ashburn.
 
Let competition determine who stays. If one of the young guys is playing better then Collins, they should get the nod. With that said, i'd be more comfortable at 10-4 with Collins, if JC were to go down. We know he's capable under the pressure of a meaningful regular season game. Something we'll have no clue of from either of the young guys.
 
techboy said:
I wasn't disagreeing with you. I was suggesting that you were being too generous.
Click to expand...

Oh. Well.

Carry on then.

This is what happens when I get on a roll. :)
 
Henry said:
I think the Patriots had a clue.

I don't think our scouting department compares to theirs in any way, shape or form though.
Click to expand...

Maybe they had a clue but Cassel had done nothing to inspire confidence in anyone that he could be the man. Lots of guys have great workouts before the draft and never do a thing between the lines on Sunday. Yet, he was the #2 as a rookie as I recall (he got most of those 39 regular season attempts as a rookie anyway). This after making Brady the #2 to Bledsoe as a rookie.

This is the most successful franchise in the league over the last decade, a franchise that expects to be playing for the Lombardi every year regardless of who can or can't play, including their starting QB, and they put a rookie in that spot twice inside of 5 years.

Maybe it is just me but I see a philosophy up there that has won 3 Super Bowls, been to a 4th and posted a 16-0 season in the last 9 years that has nothing to do with keeping an old, experienced backup around at the QB position. They seem to be following a different formula and it is working.

Maybe if we want they have, we should try doing what they have done?
 
Neophyte said:
Maybe they had a clue but Cassel had done nothing to inspire confidence in anyone that he could be the man. Lots of guys have great workouts before the draft and never do a thing between the lines on Sunday. Yet, he was the #2 as a rookie as I recall (he got most of those 39 regular season attempts as a rookie anyway). This after making Brady the #2 to Bledsoe as a rookie.
Click to expand...

Actually, as a rookie Cassel was the #3 behind Flutie. He got promoted after Flutie retired. As a rookie Brady was the #3 (behind Freisz I think) but earned the #2 spot by the end of the year.

That's why I say, if one of our young guys can beat out Collins, great. Then we're following the NE model of finding young guys who are good enough to earn the #2 spot. You don't just put them in there because they happen to be young though.

This is the most successful franchise in the league over the last decade, a franchise that expects to be playing for the Lombardi every year regardless of who can or can't play, including their starting QB, and they put a rookie in that spot twice inside of 5 years.

Maybe it is just me but I see a philosophy up there that has won 3 Super Bowls, been to a 4th and posted a 16-0 season in the last 9 years that has nothing to do with keeping an old, experienced backup around at the QB position. They seem to be following a different formula and it is working.

Maybe if we want they have, we should try doing what they have done?
Click to expand...

Philosophy is only half the battle. Competence is the other half. I can study Michael Jordan all I want but if I try and copy his style I'll still suck at basketball. Sometimes there's more to it than just copying someone else.

For example, let's use a situation a little closer to home. Anyone remember the last time the Redskins backed up a shaky starter with two late-round young guys? That would be 2001, when we had Todd Husak and Sage Rosenfels behind Jeff George. How did that work out? Did we find that diamond in the rough? I mean, it worked for the Patriots, right? So clearly it must have worked out for us too.

Or maybe it was thought of by pretty much everyone watching as a colossal front-office cluster****.

I'm pretty sure it was one or the other. :)
 
Last edited:
Neophyte said:
With all due respect, I think that is just not true. In 2006 Tony Romo replaced Drew Bledsoe with absolutely no more game experience than Colt Brennan has now and he hasn't looked back. In 2001 when Tom Brady stepped out on the field (to replace an injured Drew Bledsoe) he had thrown exactly three regular season passes, completing only one of those for a total of 6 yards.
Click to expand...

So, it seems that to find our next franchise qb we will first have to sign and start Drew Bledsoe. :drummer:
 
Henry said:
Actually, as a rookie Cassel was the #3 behind Flutie. He got promoted after Flutie retired. As a rookie Brady was the #3 (behind Freisz I think) but earned the #2 spot by the end of the year.
Click to expand...

Point. I had forgotten both Flutie and Freisz. But still remains that they only keep Brady and Cassel buried on the depth chart for a year before making them #2. A more caustious coach would gone looking for a veteran backup that second year too. Somewhere up there NE is the downright guts to pull the trigger on that decision and I do think that is what it is since I don't think anyone (even the Pats) know a guy will perform under pressure for a season before he actually proves he can do it on the field.

But that might just be why I am professional geek and not a football coach too. Ya know? :)

Henry said:
Philosophy is only half the battle. Competence is the other half. I can study Michael Jordan all I want but if I try and copy his style I'll still suck at basketball. Sometimes there's more to it than just copying someone else.
Click to expand...

True enough. Although Jordan didn't get to be Jordan by riding the pine behind two other guys watching and learning either. He got there with reps and right now Collins is getting what little are left over after Campbell is done. I would like to see him get a couple series with the starters, against the other teams starting defense, just to see what would happen if he didn't have to run for his life.

Henry said:
For example, let's use a situation a little closer to home. Anyone remember the last time the Redskins backed up a shaky starter with two late-round young guys? That would be 2001, when we had Todd Husak and Sage Rosenfels behind Jeff George. How did that work out? Did we find that diamond in the rough? I mean, it worked for the Patriots, right? So clearly it must have worked out for us too.

Or maybe it was thought of by pretty much everyone watching as a colossal front-office cluster****.

I'm pretty sure it was one or the other. :)
Click to expand...

Of course. But there were a lot issues with that situation and they started with Jeff George being the starter in the first place.

Chris said:
So, it seems that to find our next franchise qb we will first have to sign and start Drew Bledsoe. :drummer:
Click to expand...

If I thought it would work... :D
 
Right now I just don't see Colt being the longterm answer if JC proves not to be. I would love to be proven wrong, but he has struggled with some very basic NFL QB 101 things in camp and in the first preseason game. He drops back slowly and too far -- past his protection -- and then rolls out at the first sign of pressure. Sure, the offensive line was a joke for him, but he's been doing it in camp too. The coaches have been on him to drop back fast and then step up in the pocket and he simply hasn't been doing it. Instead, he drops back and then looks for a receiver like he's playing Madden or something. Compare this to Collins, who seems to have a good idea of who's going to be open even before he snaps the ball. It's why the coaches love him and won't hesitate to play him this year if JC can't put points on the board.

The only way I see Colt getting a shot this year is if JC gets hurt of stinks it up and the playoffs are out of question. Then there will be no reason not to give Colt a shot. But even if he plays well, he's going to have to earn the trust of whoever is coaching in 2010 -- because if the Skins don't win nine games or more this year, there's no way Zorn is coming back. And I'm pretty sure Shanahan or Gruden will want to take his own QB in the early rounds of the draft next year.
 
I was just thinking of another scenario I hadn't heard yet. What if Jason Campbell has a slightly above average season? Do we sign him to a huge contract since he has had this one breakout season? Do we trust that it is not a fluke and he really has come into his own? We have had so many big signing busts, is this a subject that should concern us? Or do you go by one season and sign a multi-million dollar contract to keep him around?

It kinda reminds me of the Norv Turner situation when Danny Boy took over the team. Norv would have been gone in the 1st year, but it was too close to season and would have been foolish to start from scratch at that point. He has that one good season and gets signed on for more, the the following year he is right back to the same ole' Norv and we are stuck rebuilding after 7 years of...UGH!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)

Help Users
As we enjoy today's conversations, let's remember our dear friends 'Docsandy', Sandy Zier-Teitler, and 'Posse Lover', Michael Huffman, who would dearly love to be here with us today! We love and miss you guys ❤

You haven't joined any rooms.

    You haven't joined any rooms.
    Top