The Biggest Disconnect , the team and fans or the team and Reality?

Lanky Livingston said:

Well, I don't think anyone claimed we had the next Clinton Portis and Randy Moss on the roster already, and I also think that Armstrong and Torain should have to battle for their spots. They both still have a lot to prove. And Goal - the fact that they outperformed their (un)draft position is the point!

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Going all the way back tot he beginning of the thread we were talking about whether or not this team as a whole had taken strides forward this season in the rebuilding process as opposed to simply treading water, or even falling back a bit.

I suggested we did not move forward at all. Torain and Armstrong were presented as evidence that we had.

I disagree. A 4- to 6-win team that sheds a large portion of it's players needs to see a superstar or two emerge. We needed to find a Randy Moss and/or Clinton Portis on this team, and about 4-5 role-players. Instead we found two guys that will make very fine role-players.

Every team, EVERY one, should be able to find 1 or 2 players capable of solid yet unspectacular play every season. That we are pointing to our 1 or 2 players as proof that things are getting BETTER around here is, quite frankly, very sad.

Henry said:

Not that I'm as militant as Elephant, but I'd also like to point out that in terms of scoring our defense only dropped from 18th to 21st. We gave up more yards but got a lot more turnovers (where we improved from 32nd to 15th.)

I will now proceed to run quickly out of the fray.

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Cato, you fool, you!

Henry said:

Yes, he seemed more comfortable in the system, but he also looked slower, smaller, less comfortable in the pocket, and his arm looked particularly weak.

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Yes. But that wasn't what I was commenting on. Just in terms of being comfortable and looking good running the offense, Rex looked better. He is NOT a better QB than Donovan. Just perhaps a better fit for this offense.

Henry said:

On third down McNabb's passer rating was 55.8 and his first down percentage was 30.2%.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/player/splits/2010/133361

On third down Grossman's passer rating was 60.5 and his first down percentage was 31.25%.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/player/splits/2010/396159

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See!

Thanks for looking that up. My feeling, and it is a gut feeling and nothing else, is that Grossman knew how to run the offense better and executed better. McNabb hit those long passes from time to time which excites us fans, and inflates his stats, but I think Rex had more mastery of the system.

Let me be clear: I am not in the camp that thinks we should sign Rex to anything more than a two year deal, MAXIMUM. Given the choice between the McNabb I saw for 13 games and the Rex I saw for three, I slightly, slightly prefer Rex.

Lanky Livingston said:

Well, I don't think anyone claimed we had the next Clinton Portis and Randy Moss on the roster already, and I also think that Armstrong and Torain should have to battle for their spots. They both still have a lot to prove. And Goal - the fact that they outperformed their (un)draft position is the point!

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Yes, we agree, they did great. I could not be happier with the production we got out of either one.

Goaldeje said:

Cato, you fool, you!

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Thanks for looking that up. My feeling, and it is a gut feeling and nothing else, is that Grossman knew how to run the offense better and executed better. McNabb hit those long passes from time to time which excites us fans, and inflates his stats, but I think Rex had more mastery of the system.

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Oh I agree. I think we saw the very best Rex had to offer, whereas we saw McNabb at his worst. Their overall production, in terms of scoring and wins, was very similar.

Let me be clear: I am not in the camp that thinks we should sign Rex to anything more than a two year deal, MAXIMUM. Given the choice between the McNabb I saw for 13 games and the Rex I saw for three, I slightly, slightly prefer Rex.

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Given that we traded two valuable picks for McNabb, and given that McNabb at his worst produces about as well as Grossman at his best, and given that McNabb has only had one year in this amazing system as opposed to Grossman with his incredible understanding of it, I'd be more inclined to give McNabb another season. If he even improves a little bit next season he'll be far better than Grossman, who I don't think will be any better, ever.

I know that's impossible now, given the way Shanahan has handled the QB situation. But it would have been nice to have had the option.

That's an interesting take, I will have to think about it some.

I read a piece by Lavar recently where he essentially said this year was all a part of Shanahan's master plan to instill discipline or something.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/hard-hits/2011/01/post.html

Yeah. Aside from his formidable writing style, I think he's lost his mind. I honestly can't think of any way (running the swinging gate aside) Shanahan could have screwed up more this season, including the McNabb debacle (can we shorten that to McNacle? Anyone?). A couple of weeks ago I was inclined to give McNabb another shot next year, and I do still think it is a possibility. I think it is a STRONG possibility he will be on the roster come training camp, we have no incentive to cut him, so unless someone bowls us over with a trade offer, you may be right.

Goaldeje said:

Mike, I think McNabb handled himself really well here, and I wish things had turned out better. But I also think Rex runs the offense better. That doesn't make Rex the better QB, just a better fit for this system. I don't have a lot of stats to point to, it's kind of like porn, I know it when i see it, and the fact is, IMO, Rex runs things better than McNabb, at least he did those three games.

I am getting ready for a work trip or I would look it up myself, but I wonder what our third down conversion percentages were with Rex vs. McNabb? Or how long drives were comparatively for the two? It seems that McNabb was able to put up a long ball or two each game, but aside from that, was never that efficient. Rex, if memory serves, was better at sustaining drives, but perhaps (?) not as good at the long ball?

Don't have the stats on this, just going from memory.

Anyway, i don't think anyone is saying Rex is our franchise QB. Just a better fit for Kyle's offense than McNabb. Whether that is due to study habits, practice, time in the system, or whatever else is something we as fans will probably never know for sure.
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Goaldie....Mike and I are saying "yea...Rex runs it better....but the results are the same. so what's the gain?" and the answer is there is no gain.

Goaldeje said:

That's an interesting take, I will have to think about it some.

I read a piece by Lavar recently where he essentially said this year was all a part of Shanahan's master plan to instill discipline or something.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/hard-hits/2011/01/post.html

Yeah. Aside from his formidable writing style, I think he's lost his mind. I honestly can't think of any way (running the swinging gate aside) Shanahan could have screwed up more this season, including the McNabb debacle (can we shorten that to McNacle? Anyone?). A couple of weeks ago I was inclined to give McNabb another shot next year, and I do still think it is a possibility. I think it is a STRONG possibility he will be on the roster come training camp, we have no incentive to cut him, so unless someone bowls us over with a trade offer, you may be right.

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I think you're right.

Henry said:

Oh I agree. I think we saw the very best Rex had to offer, whereas we saw McNabb at his worst. Their overall production, in terms of scoring and wins, was very similar.



Given that we traded two valuable picks for McNabb, and given that McNabb at his worst produces about as well as Grossman at his best, and given that McNabb has only had one year in this amazing system as opposed to Grossman with his incredible understanding of it, I'd be more inclined to give McNabb another season. If he even improves a little bit next season he'll be far better than Grossman, who I don't think will be any better, ever.

I know that's impossible now, given the way Shanahan has handled the QB situation. But it would have been nice to have had the option.

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I can see exactly this sort of thing happening. the kicker is whether McNabb himself is in or out. he is gonna have to bend more to meet the prodigal son's demands.

Now I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals; and I heard one of the four living creatures saying with a voice like thunder, “Come and see.” And I looked, and behold, a white horse. He who sat on it had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer.

And it was upon the house of Daniel, into the land of Snyder, that he did ride his white horse, to conquer he who hath brought pain and suffering unto the mother of thy birth. And there he did come upon the Daniel, and with great fury did he smite him. And from the book of life did he remove all reference to him. And to all that was possessed of him did he bring the fire, until all that was of the house of Daniel was no more.

When He opened the second seal, I heard the second living creature saying, “Come and see.” Another horse, fiery red, went out. And it was granted to the one who sat on it to take peace from the earth, and that people should kill one another; and there was given to him a great sword.

And it was upon the house of Coaches, in the office of Shanahan, that he used the mighty sword to bring forth his wrath upon him. And upon those he begat, as Haslett. And he cut out their eyes, because they could not see that which they could not see. And he cut out their tongues, so they could not speak of that which they did not know. And after they lay dead, upon their heads did he carve the mark of the beast.
And the mark was 3-4.

When He opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come and see.” So I looked, and behold, a black horse, and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, “A handful of draft choices for meager wages, and three stud free agents for league minimum; and do not raise prices on the tickets and the parking.”

And with a blinded hand did he strike down all who remained. The useful and the useless. The old and the young. The rich and the poor. None was spared of his anger. “Blowest thou up” he vowed, with every swing of his scales. So that nothing remained of yesterday.

When He opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, “Come and see.” So I looked, and behold, a pale horse. And the name of him who sat on it was Death, and Hades followed with him.

And power was given to them over the Washington Redskins, to own, to coach, and to lead. But they could not agree on how to move forward, and killed each other.

The End

well...Ax....that pretty much concludes this thread!!!!!!!!!!

I'm almost afraid to post anything else here.

Elephant said:

Look, you know I agree the switch was not ideal. I don't like it, you don't like. I am not defending that!

What I will challenge is the 2 statements above. You did some work to provide us with data that showed the 3-4 switch by other teams was successful and there were some, myself included, who looked over those numbers and did not see the DRASTIC improvement you were talking about. In fact, there were some teams in the compiled data that showed no improvement or very little. I am not going to bother to go back and refute it, you will suggest I am wrong when the data is right there for you to see.

Secondly, you have mentioned this several times and I have kept my mouth shut because I did not want to get into it with you, but Shanahan/Haslett did not inherit a #5 defense!!! They inherited the #10 defense from the previous year. In Blache's last season, he went from a #5 to #10. So your suggestion that Shanahan inherited a #5 defense is wrong or that we went from #5 to # 32 under Shanahan is wrong! That's right Ryman, you are wrong! This defense went from the #10 defense in the NFL to the #31 defense under Shanahan. While this is still putrid, your numbers are wrong.

The 2010 season we were ranked #31 not 32 for the season. While this is no major difference you were wrong by saying they were #32. Here's the link:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=OPP&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&season=2010&seasonTy

The 2009 season our defense was ranked #10:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...gory=GAME_STATS&season=2009&seasonType=REG&ta

While your frustration for watching this team is warranted, you blast anyone who does not do their homework, when it is obvious you are wrong. If you had simply done a little homework, the numbers you provided would not have been incorrect.

Don't come back with some sort of, well it was a number 5 team in 2008 under Blache BS, we went from a #10 to #31 under Shanahan. And there is a difference between 31 and 32. See the one after the three? That indicates a number different than the one you provided. Which means you did not give the correct number, which means you were wrong. Please do not try to spin the numbers!

The numbers you provided were DEAD wrong and you need to admit you were wrong if you want to maintain any sort of credibility on this board. If not, everything you say from here on out will be mush to me.

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OK, Beginning with your first point.

You are wrong not a little bit not slightly incorrect but completely and utterly wrong, you obviously didnt read the entire post, it was a lot of information so thats understandable so I have cut and pasted the apropriate sections if you like we can read them together.

"Overall Defense:
In nearly every case you can point to improvement in the defense's bottom line, though it seems the various systems and coaches each seem to improve in different ways. All extremes of switching are represented, from a hard switch with little personnel effort on a ill suited team, to a soft
switch done over the course of a few years. One thing however has stood out, hybrid defenses don't seem to improve as much as the full blown switch, and Baltimore is the only team to sustain any success using a hybrid. It seems that a team should move on quickly to finishing the
switch instead of lingering long term as a hybrid, spending no more than a season as a hybrid."

"Of the 7 teams that skipped the hybrid period, 2 turned in 1st place performances, 2 more turned in top 10 performances, the 3 remaining were knocking on the door of the top 10, 2 of them were bottom 5 performers the previous year. Truthfully I was not expecting these results, at all."

I dont know Elephant, I would say turning in a top 10 performance after being bottom five is a pretty drastic change, and those changes seem to be the norm rather than the exception. and yes the data is there for you to see. where you were wrong was you assumed that we were actually a hybrid, because thats what Shanny and Haslett told everyone we were going to be (they also said we would run 1gap 3-4 lol), however a hybrid means we would run 4-3 and 3-4, we ran some 4-3 "looks" but for the most part used the same personnel and even the same tech niques (stand up ends) a true Hybrid would be like the Raven who actually have different personnel in each variation or the patsies who do the same.

"What really surprises is that all but 1 full change either improved or had no change, only the Chargers fell into a sub category, and overall they sharply improved even though their YPP slightly dipped. I think one thing that can be read into this is perhaps that most of the DC's that are doing the switch, have extensive secondary experience and view it as more of the starting point than the front line."


as for your second point
My bad, I was wrong, we went from #10 to 31 not #5 to 32, obviously that makes every point I made completely wrong. being slightly incorrect is not the same as making completely wrong conclusions, you should know that.

Henry, you assume that the number of turnovers was due to the scheme rather than being aggressive, our turnovers werent because we ran a 3-4 it was because early on we were unsound and teams werent ready for that hence the second part of the year they fell off drasticly.

MikeSr619 said:

youre one to call someone drama when ALL YOU DO is pick fights and talk ****. look in the mirror before you do something like that again.

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I said Grossman was decent and would serve for the short term, you somehow turned that into he should get a manning deal etc etc, and then went on a passive aggressive rant about how " you werent going to get into it with me"

thats about as drama queen as it gets my friend.

Henry said:

I'm almost afraid to post anything else here.

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Afraid?

Why?

You lose your horse and scales?

Rymanofthenorth said:

Simple fact, EVERY SINGLE TEAM THAT MADE THE SWITCH TO THE 3-4 (BESIDES US), IMPROVED DRASTICALLY IN THEIR FIRST YEAR Period. thats EVERY SINGLE TEAM THAT MADE THE SWITCH.

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Below I have highlighted contradicting statements from the statement you made above. Above you said, "Every single team...Improved drastically in their first year period.

The first sentence in the quoted paragraph below from the post you created a while ago states, "In nearly every case..."

These are 2 DRASTICALLY different statements.

I don't care about 1 gap 2gap red gap blue gap. You are far more qualified to discuss those points. My point is you need to be more consistent with what you say and if you make claims about the rankings, you need to get the numners right if you want any credibility.

You know I agree with you on most of it. Just holding you accountable for your statements, just like I expect you would do with me.

Rymanofthenorth said:

OK, Beginning with your first point.

You are wrong not a little bit not slightly incorrect but completely and utterly wrong, you obviously didnt read the entire post, it was a lot of information so thats understandable so I have cut and pasted the apropriate sections if you like we can read them together.

"Overall Defense:
In nearly every case you can point to improvement in the defense's bottom line, though it seems the various systems and coaches each seem to improve in different ways.

"What really surprises is that all but 1 full change either improved or had no change, only the Chargers fell into a sub category, and overall they sharply improved even though their YPP slightly dipped. I think one thing that can be read into this is perhaps that most of the DC's that are doing the switch, have extensive secondary experience and view it as more of the starting point than the front line."


as for your second point
My bad, I was wrong, we went from #10 to 31 not #5 to 32, obviously that makes every point I made completely wrong. being slightly incorrect is not the same as making completely wrong conclusions, you should know that.

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I should know what? That you assumed that I assumed we were a Hybrid. I don't know enough about what we were. I would wager that for much of the year, the coaches and players had no idea what we were.

Oh and about you admitting you got the numbers wrong, it wasn't that hard was it?

No I can admit when I am wrong or even slightly incorrect I just rarely am. and again I was pretty clear, being slightly wrong on numbers is not the same as being completely wrong on an assumption.

I am not as good with the hilite thingy on here but immediately after you hilited the chargers did you read the following sentence where it says OVERALL THEY SHARPLY IMPROVED (emphasis not shouting). if you go back and read that you will see that teams that go 3-4 improved every time, however I will admit that the stats have now chnaged as two teams this year failed miserably Us and Buffalo, Buffalo went back to the 4-3 mid season and did better, we stayed 3-4 and did worse.

Ax said:

Afraid?

Why?

You lose your horse and scales?

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Doh!

Elephant said:

I don't care about 1 gap 2gap red gap blue gap.

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Great seeing you on Sunday, bro!

Lanky Livingston said:

Great seeing you on Sunday, bro!

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You too my man! I wish I could have gotten there a little earlier.

I hear ya Ryman, and I know your argument. I have read it enough.

I just saw some contradiction and felt the urge to step up. You know I respect your football knowledge.

Going forward, do you think there can be any success next year in the 3-4 if there is minimal change on the defensive side of the ball? By minimal, I mean we pick up one more LB, a replacement for Rogers if/when he's gone, maybe a safety to add depth and at least a NT comparable to Bryant that we can rotate in provided the surge in Bryant's play is indicative of how he will fare in the future?

I say that because I feel we really need to concentrate on getting everything we need on offense.

I know El and unlike a few guys you have always been pretty respectful.



I think it all depends on how you measure success.obviously we will be better next year on some level even if we only add a couple guys on a talent fit level, but we wont be anywhere near the middle of the pack unless we add a NT a DE and at least one LB. I dont think Bryant will be a long term answer, hes too limited physically. he is a stopgap guy who has moments.
There are no free agents who are Rogers calibre at corner, he cant catch but he is solid in coverage and in run support so if someone gives him big bucks we will be in trouble at corner.
We need a free safety we cant keep plugging in strong safety types.

BUT on a scheme level we wont improve, there will still be unsound scheming, still be poor game planning, still be terrible adjustments (I only saw Haslett adjust in one game despite obvious adjustments to make) Haslett just doesnt strike me as the right guy for the job. The biggest indictment against this system was the contrast in the fecals games, game one they had no film, we blitzed hard and came after Vick, game two we tried to play zone and they simply knew where to attack. we didnt adjust and they just rolled us. we had two weeks to prepare and we got beat worse than anything ive seen against us ever.

We NEED an infusion of talent on offence, badly and I personally would love if we got mankins or Kalil in addition to drafting Offence, but with this switch our needs on defence are actually bigger than Offence now.