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Going Contrarian

Boone

The Commissioner
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The Eagles can be beaten.

Coming off a Super Bowl-winning season in 2018, the supposedly world-class dominant Eagles sputtered losing 4 of their first 7 games, including dropping a pair of games to sub-par teams in the Bucs and Titans, and losing at home to the Panthers and Vikings. Think history can't repeat itself?

Contrary to popular opinion, the Redskins are not a bad team. Young? Unproven? And lead by a journeyman QB? A work in serious progress? Yep. But bad? I don't think so. This Redskins roster is younger, faster, and more physical than any in recent memory. They face a tough challenge to open their 2019 season, back to back matchups against two supposedly dominant and anointed NFC East teams in the Eagles and Cowboys. One positive trend - the Redskins have been better on the road to open the season than they have at home recently. I don't know what that says about them – but it's a fact.

Stand by for a shocking premise reveal…

The 2019 season opener at ‘The Linc' is winnable.

Just relax. Before you get your realist panties in a bunch, adjust your attitude. Open up your mind. Embrace all of Fate's possibilities. This one is part truth, part hope, and mostly for fun...

No one, including the Philadelphia Eagles (Doug Pederson propaganda to the contrary), thinks the Burgundy and Gold have a chance on Sunday. And that may turn out to be a beautiful thing. Jay Gruden and his new blue collar bestie Case Keenum are doing their college best to sound humble, afraid, and cautious. And that plays right into a scenario where we get taken lightly – much more lightly than we perhaps should be taken.

How do the Redskins pull off a seemingly stunning upset you ask? Beats the hell out of me. But I can't resist the opportunity to throw some scenarios out there.

Scenario #1 : Defensive Juggernaut

Before we get into the less serious and more fun scenarios, let's cover the most likely one. The Redskins have a top 10 defense in 2019. If we really gel, and manage to do the unthinkable and stay healthy, it could be top 3. If our defense decides they're being dissed (anyone see the number 22 ranking of our D released today?), they could come out angry and shock us all. I'm talking 5 or more sacks, a pick or two, maybe a forced fumble for 6, or knocking Carson Wentz off the field angry. I'm not saying they're likely to provide such a jaw-dropping initial effort, but one thing about rebuilding with youngsters… they don't know how un-Redskins-like this would be. They don't know we aren't supposed to shock and silence the critics. They could just be the defense we've waited decades for. The addition of Montez Sweat and Landon Collins, coupled with the further growth of the Alabama boys, and opportunistic newcomers in Jimmy Moreland and Cole Holcomb, just to name a few, add to a defense that looked pretty capable last year before injuries beset this squad.

This is the most preferred scenario – because it would represent us beating a dreaded rival straight up.

Scenario #2 : Bombs Away!

Case Keenum sucks. The Redskins have no wide receivers. Jordan Reed is about to retire. Chris Thompson is a shadow of his former self. The passing game is full of unproven rookies. Paul Richardson is overrated. Jay Gruden wouldn't know a post pattern if it bit him in the ass. Add your own ‘conventional wisdom' about the Redskins struggling passing game here. Whether based in reality or not, there's not a defensive coordinator in the league who's scared of the Redskins passing game. And up till now, there's no reason they should be.

The Eagles are game planning for one thing and one thing only as we speak - how to stop Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson. They figure, if they do that – they win, and probably by 20+ points.

One way to take advantage of that – go Air Coryell on them. Throw 4 passes for every 1 run and if that doesn't work, make it 6 to 1. If the Redskins throw a flea flicker on the first down of their opening possession, we'll know Gruden has decided ‘what the hell – I'm dead man walking anyway' and has decided to take the Eagles D (and Skins fans everywhere) by surprise with an incredibly aggressive passing attack. This is not a likely approach. But it might work – and here's why. The Eagles won't be prepared for it. If we can snatch an stunning lead with a couple of early passing TDs, our stingy D may well be able to hold off any furious comeback attempt, while on offense we run out the clock by pounding the rock almost exclusively in the 4th auarter. I know. Fletcher Cox alone will defeat this plan. We don't have the receivers to execute such a bold plan, and even if we did, Case Keenum sucks (did I mention that?). But when teams get bold and play beyond aggressively, sometimes crazy things happen.


Scenario #3 : Ground and Pound and Out-FG-Em

The Redskins should be able to run on the Eagles. If they can get get our talented backfield going, it will do a lot to defuse a superior Philly offensive attack by keeping them off the field. That sets the stage for a lower scoring contest that may be settled by ST, not the offense or defense. We take him for granted, but Dustin Hopkins is a very consistent kicker. If the Redskins defense can frustrate and stymie the Eagles offense and limit them in the Red zone, this could turn into a trading field goals, tit-for-tat, 10 different lead changes type of game. If we can keep it close, hit all of our FGs within 50 yards, and be ‘in it' late, the pressure on the Eagles will be tremendous. No one expects Washington to pull off a win – not on the road, and not against a stacked Eagles team with Carson Wentz under center. If we're in it late, all of the pressure falls on the Eagles who could fold like a cheap tent. A couple of ‘flip the field' turnovers that produce easy 3 point opportunities would greatly advance the cause in this scenario. And a couple of Jake Elliot ‘doinkers' off the upright would be just the ticket.


Scenario #4 : Dirty Tricks

Let's face it. This situation calls for an incredibly stupid and futile act by somebody. And Jay Gruden and the Redskins are just the guys to do it!

If you can't beat ‘em – trick ‘em. That's what my one-legged prostitute grandmother Lucky used to say anyway.

Gruden has shown he's not averse to a little trickeration previously. If the worst case scenario presents itself, the Redskins get behind early, Case Keenum can't stay upright, our defense underperforms, and/or the Eagles shut down our running game, Gruden may need to pull a rabbit out of his hat. Maybe we run an option with Trey Quinn (former HS pitcher) or Jordan Reed (former HS QB) going deep to a streaking Terry McLaurin. Maybe it's a fake punt or two. A A reverse to Steven Sims on a kickoff.

Hell – maybe it's all of the above.

Usually, when you see a lot of trick plays in an NFL game, it's a sign of desperation from a team that knows it can't win any other way. So I'd personally prefer that we compete straight up against an over-hyped and likely over-confident Eagles team. That being said, the expectations for the 2019 Redskins are exceedingly low. Gruden's job is on the line. Those are arguments for risk-taking. There is literally nothing to lose. Why not pull out some (if not all) the stops and take some chances to pull off an early upset?

It could happen.


I don't know what'll happen on Sunday. Common sense says our best hope is that the Redskins are able to run the ball, and keep the Eagles within a couple of touchdowns on the strength of a tough defensive effort, hoping the favorites make enough mistakes to escape with a narrow victory. The experts say we'll get trounced. The Eagles are favored by more points than any other NFL team this weekend. But we all know, conventional wisdom and mediot experts are frequently proven horribly wrong on any given Sunday.

Gruden, Keenum, and Company are talking modestly and cautiously about this game. Don't believe a word of it. They may not win it – but they believe they can. The outcome of the game doesn't mean much. In all likelihood, this is a transition season for our team. We have a lot of youngsters with a lot to learn on this roster.

I'd love to see them learn an early NFL lesson on Sunday in Philadelphia. Regardless of talent, matchups, home field advantage, or the odds…

No game is unwinnable.
 
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I love this post.

It made me think of a recent story I read about the Charlotte Hornets. I don't know why I read it, seeing as how I'm not a fan of Charlotte or the NBA, but I love the point the guy made, because after reading your post I think the same formula for success could apply.

Basically, Jay Gruden has to be done if he doesn't pull off a miracle this year, and I'm sure he knows that. We have a lot of unproven talent, a lot of holes, and a lot of massive question marks. So rather than doing what's expected, why not dedicate the whole season to experimentation? If it fails and we get a number one draft pick and lose Gruden, did we really lose? Best case scenario, it confuses the league so much that we have one hell of a season, and great entertainment.

What do I mean? I mean load every game with multiple trick plays. Never punt. Go for two on every touchdown. Run formations and packages nobody uses. In essence, do everything that the experts or anyone with half a football mind would deem crazy. Because you know what? It might just be crazy enough to win us a bunch of games. It can't be game planned for, it's so far off the script that it will frustrate the hell out of opponents, and win or lose, it would be some damn fine entertainment and probably one of the more memorable seasons we've had in 20 years.

The **** it, why not approach. Personally, I'm a fan.
 
No game is unwinnable.
This is a fact. The wildcard Giants beat the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl, and the 7-9 Seahawks beat the defending champion Saints in the playoffs. For those two reasons alone, I never lose hope that a win is possible.
 
I'm not really seriously suggesting that kind of thing. But I do think we've gotten beaten by a lot of teams over the years that shouldn't have beaten us - and it usually involved them taking risks we weren't willing to take. Whether going for it on 4th down...faking a punt...taking a deep shot that wasn't expected (say, on 1st down). I just want us to go for it and play ballsy, gritty, whatever-it-takes-to-win football.

We don't need to go all Armageddon in terms of the trick plays. We will have a very dangerous running game, a stifling defense, and a reliable kicking game. That alone gives you a chance. If our WRs and TEs outperform expectations, we could surprise. Gruden needs to step up though and not play scared and conservative every week.

We need to develop an attitude, some cockiness, and start playing nasty and aggressive. That's how you win in the NFL.

And that's what I'm wanting to see.
 
I'd also like to never see two things again - playing not to lose instead of mashing the gas, and lining up in the prevent defense. If we never did either of those again, I'd be willing to bet we'd win a lot more often than we do.
 
There seems to be a consensus among the media that we are an awful team which I don't understand. You can complain about how we won last year but we were leading the NFC East until smashed with injuries. Winning in the NFL is not a fluke, no reason we can't do that again this year. We quickly forget how well our defense was playing until everything blew up. The Eagles defense is crowed about, Wentz is crowed about, but did we forget that they were like 5-6 with Wentz last year? Their defense isn't as good as it was. So far, the outlier year is the super bowl year, other than that with Wentz they went 7-9 and 5-6.
 
There seems to be a consensus among the media that we are an awful team which I don't understand. You can complain about how we won last year but we were leading the NFC East until smashed with injuries. Winning in the NFL is not a fluke, no reason we can't do that again this year. We quickly forget how well our defense was playing until everything blew up. The Eagles defense is crowed about, Wentz is crowed about, but did we forget that they were like 5-6 with Wentz last year? Their defense isn't as good as it was. So far, the outlier year is the super bowl year, other than that with Wentz they went 7-9 and 5-6.

I think it runs a bit deeper than that. There's probably a political component - it's chic/PC to disown "The Redskins" and its unpopular owner. On a performance level, it has not been a proven franchise for almost two decades now. Including the very recent past, it has been mired in bad decisions, internecine strife, mishandling players, hanging by the thread seasons. There's no franchise identity. It has suffered from a coaching carousel and the current on-field head honcho certainly doeesn't seem able to mold a team that fires on all pistons, demanding and delivering the best from every player. Team Brudan, if one is to believe rumors, will work to undermine strong, independent, successful people in the organization. From a football perspective, it's obvious what the pundits are extrapolating on: a bad offense last season never functioned as an integrated, starters only unit this preseason. None of the QBs looked outstanding, the receiving corps was atrocious last season and now is expected to achieve major improvements with a third round draft pick who did not play in preseason, a seventh round pick whose first season ended way early, another rookie and the oft injured Richardson as the verteran? I get the turn-around perspective. But I also get the "this is the NFL, you don't succeed without timing, familiarity and experience - all the product of working together as a unit." Couple that to an 0-line the left side (i.e., QB blind side) of which is, let's be kind, finding its way and it's easy to see how the pundits are not sold on this team's prospects. The Trent side-show reinforces the notion of a franchise that just can't get its you know what together long enough to focus exclusively on what matters - winning. There's always some sort of idiotic drama going on with this franchise. We'll leave root casue analysis to another time on that one.

Lest we get carried away, this meme on talent, where does it rank compared to other teams? I agree the defensive line has improved from the abyss it was several seasons ago when teams ran at will. The linebacking corps remains a turnstile personnel-wise, and, while the addition of Collins is major league, the secondary remains a question mark until proven otherwise. Again, it's wasy to see where the pundits are coming from.

To be honest, I don't think talent aggregation will lead to inevitable championship football. Not with this head coach. Not with this FO. I truly hope I'm wrong and I honestly respect the optimism I see in these posts. I'ld like a Fall/Winter where 1600 every Sunday afternnon (actually about two hrs earlier) isn't an anchor mood setter for the rest of the week. I'ld like to feel excited about tubing a big wad of cash to battle the wasteland that is FEDEX to see exciting games we are expected to win against the best teams.

It's hard to undo 47 years of fandom - especially after living through the J.J.Gibbs years. Old habits die hard. But this franchise does do a number on the psyche and has for a while. It's easy to see how the pundits aren't impressed. There is talk. And there is performance. Time for the Skins to STFU and let their play do the talking. The Iggles game would be a good statement - but I don't see it happening. Hope you're all tossing "I told you so" virtual rocks at me come Monday.
 
You can complain about how we won last year but we were leading the NFC East until smashed with injuries.
With that 6-3 record before the injuries, we had beaten the Cardinals, Giants, Packers, Cowboys, Panthers and Bucs. 5 of those 6 finished at the bottom of the league, and 3 finished last in their division. Sure, we were in first, but we were averaging an 11 point win margin against the worst teams in the league. In our 3 losses against decent teams, we lost by an average of 20 points. In other words, our great start was an illusion.

Oddly enough, after the injuries and downslide, we were still losing to all the good teams we played, but the average margin dropped from 20 to 12, so we played them better than we had previously.

A good record isn't always indicative of a good team. Sometimes you just luck out and play a bunch of bums that make you look good.
 
I can dig it! I get that the Iggles are favored on paper - they should be. But, I'm not convinced they are some all-world juggernaut that it would take a miracle for the Skins to beat. They were 9-7 last year. Solid, but nothing to bow down too.

We have a legit shot. Wentz is injury prone, and hopefully rusty and Desean already has a boo-boo. I know Fletcher Cox is a beast, but conversely, why are the pundits not also saying "the eagles o-line has to account for Allen, Payne, and Ioannidis?"

Good showing by the D, maybe cause some turnovers, get the run game going, rely on CT and tight ends to carry the load in the passing game, and make some plays on special teams - why not?? Def not as hopeless as the pundits spin it.

Hail.
 
I can dig it! I get that the Iggles are favored on paper - they should be. But, I'm not convinced they are some all-world juggernaut that it would take a miracle for the Skins to beat. They were 9-7 last year. Solid, but nothing to bow down too.

We have a legit shot. Wentz is injury prone, and hopefully rusty and Desean already has a boo-boo. I know Fletcher Cox is a beast, but conversely, why are the pundits not also saying "the eagles o-line has to account for Allen, Payne, and Ioannidis?"

Good showing by the D, maybe cause some turnovers, get the run game going, rely on CT and tight ends to carry the load in the passing game, and make some plays on special teams - why not?? Def not as hopeless as the pundits spin it.

Hail.

Fair enough. Doesn't pull me over to the side of light and cheer.....but a damn good, to the point post!
 
One thing we dont' know and no one in the NFL does, is what kind of a quarterback Keenum is going to be here in DC.

Is he going to be the quick and decisive passer we saw in 2017 in Minnesota? Or are we going to see the qb that held the ball and tried to do too much in 2018 with underwhelming talent in Denver and ended up with 15 interceptions?

Denver's offensive line from 2018 makes the 2019 Redskins line look like the Hogs even without Williams.

Their leading rusher was let go in the offseason and Peterson/Guice/Thompson seems to be a much more formidable combination than what the Broncos had.

But until we get a gauge on Keenum in an NFL game no one really knows whether this team will be competitive on the final scoreboard.

One thing is for sure - Carson Wentz has to have some hesitation about playing Washington. Both times he has been injured it has been against the Redskins.
 
Absolutely right BD. And if he struggles we don't know how quick the hook will be, and/or whether Gruden will go to Colt or Haskins and how successful either of those moves can be.

I have no idea what's about to transpire. I do like our talent level much more than in recent memory. That's about the only thing I'm confident of...

This little drive-by blog entry is only a reminder that anything can happen...what actually may occur is anyone's guess.


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I do feel as if the Redskins have better than a 19% chance of winning this game, which is the number I saw recently in the breakout in the WP on handicapping the Redskins schedule in 2019.

The only road games where I would give the Redskins these kinds of odds or less to start the season is in KC, New England, Seattle with their homefield advantage and perhaps the LA Chargers who they don't match up with very well.

Most of the other rosters I see have some holes. Aren't too many juggernauts around these days.
 

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