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The Turn Around

Just to be clear - remember that I only credited us with major forward progress in 2 of my self-defined 5 critical areas. Our Talent is improving and I believe there's a chance we've drafted a true Franchise QB. 2/5 still sucks, but can I please be allowed those 2 assertions until proven false? :)


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Just to be clear - remember that I only credited us with major forward progress in 2 of my self-defined 5 critical areas. Our Talent is improving and I believe there's a chance we've drafted a true Franchise QB. 2/5 still sucks, but can I please be allowed those 2 assertions until proven false? :)

Of course. :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrRiNwGx1Tw
 
So, to turn the conversation away from 'why we suck' (one we all find pretty tiresome at this point I imagine) to 'will we suck' - there's a ton of noise on Twitter from folks who think we're going to be terrible this season.

Curious what you guys think?

First of all, I'm not sure you can legitimately predict how a team will perform (at least in terms of wins and losses) based on previous year and whether the roster has improved or not. There are so many variables beyond roster changes: schedule, injuries, officiating, hell, even luck... even where you think you can predict things like 'strength of schedule', you find that teams that were bad last year are suddenly improved, and others deteriorate. It's just hard to know.

Running down things I think we know, here's sort of how I see it. The schedules we've played the past few years have turned out to be harder than the pre-season rankings they got imho. We don't have an easy schedule on paper this year, and it's pretty challenging early on. Thing about the Redskins - they'll play well against some teams you wouldn't think they could compete with, then give up an L against a bottom feeder team they should smoke. So I don't think spending a lot of time assessing schedule strength is all that valuable. I don't believe Dallas or Philly are going to be dominant despite the hype they always get. The division is always up for grabs.

You absolutely have to hope and believe that we can't possibly have the kind of epic injuries this year that we've experienced two years running. I know. Redskins. But I have to believe that we'll have just our expected injury here and there and not have a season where we're plugging in guys hired off the street in week 12. So that would be a plus.

In terms of talent, I would say that at QB we are in no worse shape. Yes, I think Alex Smith's career has been far better than Keenum's. But in terms of the passing game under Alex last season, I don't think it could've been much more anemic than it was. I don't foresee Keenum being a huge drop off. He's something like a career 63% passer and hasn't thrown a ton of picks. He should be fine. I think we'll continue to be a run dominant team, and a big question mark is the impact of Guice and whether AP can stay healthy. If Guice looks anything like he did the other night and if AP has another good season in him, throw in a healthier Chris Thompson and we could rock and roll in the run game. Even our patchwork OL seems to be able to run block fairly well but it remains to be seen. Our TEs are a big question mark. We all know Reed's durability is beyond being a question mark, it's an exclamation mark at this point. I'm curious to see if Sprinkle can take a step or two up this season, and what Vernon and/or one of the young guys can do. Our WRs may be much better than expected. I know - 'may' is the word. I think Quinn and McLaurin have the potential to be very, very good. That immediately upgrades us from last year when we essentially had no WRs. Cam Sims is an intriguing guy, and others like Robert Davis, Kidsy (depending on who makes the team) have shown flashes. Overall - I have to believe our offense will be improved. I really don't see how they could underperform our 2018 unit which barely scored enough to keep us in games.

The defense is going to be good. We may have found a diamond in the rough in Moreland and of course, Landon Collins is a manbeast. We've also got a healthier secondary than we've had in awhile overall. DL is scary good on paper, and our LBs are also going to be improved. Pass rush will be scarier than it's been in years. We may well have a top 5 defense by mid-season and that is going to hide a lot of ugly on offense, especially if they can prove themselves to be ball hawks and get a higher # of turnovers.

Special teams worries me. I think the coaching turnover there hurt us. Although our kick coverage has looked pretty good, I'm not sold on any of our returners, and our FG and XP units have looked shaky as hell. Hopefully those are just early jitters. But I'm not sure we are going to field as confident a unit this year at least early on.

All things considered, I see us having results similar to last season - with an outside chance at being a playoff team. That's just me. I hear 3-4 win predictions every year and it rarely turns out to be that bad.

What do you all think our prospects are?
 
I wonder how long it will take some people to "Turn Around" their defense mechanism of negativity, once the team returns to sustained relevance, again.

I'm excited for another football season.
I expect the team to make the playoffs.

Where anything could happen.
That's just a fact. Regardless of any degree of probability.

It's possible.
 
With the current personnel on the roster we're tailor made to play ball control. With Guice, AP & Thompson Jay HAS to take advantage and ground game every week. A run heavy diet with high % passes mixed in sets up play action like a muhfuh. IMO there's no better way to get fresh faces on an o-line gelling together faster than letting them maul opposing front 7's. We need to own time of posession every single week.

Our defense has the potential to be top 10 at minimum, more than likely top 5 but baby steps and all. If Manusky can figure out how to force 3 and outs and give the ball right the hell back to the offense and rest up & plan for that next series we're cooking with gas.

We all know Tress can boom the hell out of a ball and pin a team behind their own 20 almost at will. Hopkins is pretty much $ from 40 yards in but I wouldn't put much faith into many over 50. Kicking usually isn't the problem, coverage is.

If our ground n pound offense can sustain drives the other 2 fall into place. I would feel pretty damn comfortable if we can open up some nice leads and let the D pin their ears back while the other team airs it out. Everything depends on the playcalling, on both sides of the ball because we have the personnel to be 10-6 with a possible wildcard. On the flip side if Jay is calling plays we're 7-9, 8-8.
 
All meaningless in my book. :)

I find this sort of speculation this time every year amusing - it always leaves out the competition: has it gotten better or worse relative to the Skins?

I'm hoping for 2-3 after the first five games. 0-5 or 1-4 start? Those predictions all over the I-Net of a pick inside the top 10 may likely hold more than a kernel of truth.

Too many unknowns: QB, LG, LT, WRs, secondary, LBs, coaching, STs, o-line pass blocking and depth. Only consistent strengths I have seen in preseason are the DTs, RBs, punter.

Skins have more talent. Does this automatically translate to a better team and record? We'll find out pretty soon.
 
I think the magazines picking us to go 3-13 are a little over the top. I dont see us being worse than the Giants. I'd put our over/under at 6.

As I've said we will live and die with our defense. The DL in particular has the potential to be a dominant unit, and if so it will carry this team.

Our offense is hot garbage. We have no WRs. A couple rookies/2nd year nobodies that ‘look good in the preseason', Doctson and Richardson ... oy vey. Its amazing to me the we still havent recovered from letting Garcon and Jackson go. We have no QBs. Not for this year anyway. A couple career backups and a raw rookie. Our RB corps consists of 400 year old AP and a guy recovering from a torn ACL. And thats probably our strongest unit on that side of the ball. Our OL is still without Williams. Without him its an average unit. Our TEs are similar to our RBs. Davis is ancient and Reed is one big hit from retirement. Still, if they stay upright they are pretty good. Honestly, and Im really not trying to be a downer here, this has the potential to be the worst offense in the league.

I think we could have a season like 2004. Great defense, no offense. Six wins. I think a good showing from the defense would at least be something to build on next year, so there's that. We'll see.
 
My real fear is that the TW mindset goes viral. Does anyone really believe the Bama boys, for example, are gonna wanna remain mired in a losing enterprise year after year after year? Losing is corrosive. Being Bengal average is no better. And this brings us back to Brudan. All these roads tail back to the same wellspring.

Anywho, AP says the offense can be a real machine. So, let's keep medium cool, I guess, until the performances unveil the plotline.
 
Here comes your Knightingale approved burst of optimism! :D

I can't say I disagree with much of anything that's been said, but let's turn those frowns upside down and try to spin this positively.

The Defense will be our identity this year, I think that's pretty obvious to anyone. Our D-Line looks beastly, Collins and Nicholson look good in safety. Our DB's look fine. If I have one area of concern on that side of the ball, maybe it's the ILB's. But I do think we have enough to hopefully put us in the top 5 in the league. Top 10 at least! I'm hoping that the pressure our D-line gives can pressure opponents into more turnovers from fumbles and hurried throws. I have so much faith in this D that I drafted them way too early in the Fantasy draft just so I could make sure I had them! LOL

The offense is full of question marks, true, but let's try and spin this positively.

Last year we had Alex Smith. I'm not suggesting Keenum is in Smith's league, but Smith wasn't lighting it up last year either. Definitely not firing on all cylinders! We had many a conversation about how lackluster he looked at times leading this offense, even calls to have Colt come in instead. Smith's benefit was that he didn't turn the ball over often, something Keenum might be more prone to do. So yeah, maybe we have a small drop off in that area.

Last year we had to lean on AP for the run game. He did us proud getting over 1000 yards (just), but this year he has help! CT has said in interviews he was never right last year after his leg break, he said he feels much more back to normal this year. So that should help. Guice is back from his ACL, an injury that AP had too a few years ago. He came back and has said repeatedly that the ACL healed stronger than before. He's been helping Guice through the rehab, how to take care of his body and how to ensure that leg comes back full strength. We've only seen a glimpse of Guice in game form so far, but it was very promising. Between these three, you gotta say the run game has taken a step forwards, which may compensate for the drop off between Smith and Keenum (if there even is one!)

Now it's true, Trent is gone... for now.
We talk about how our O-line is great, and it has pieces in Trent and Scherff... but in reality it's not played to it's full potential in years. Honestly the last two years our O-line was decimated by injuries and played well below what it's healthy peak should be. If our guys can stay healthy this year are we REALLY that much worse off?
So... A healthy O-Line minus Trent this year - versus - an Injury decimated O-Line last year (a portion of the year without Scherff)?
We still went 7-9 both years with a deficient line and only 1 old veteran running back.

Our receivers are perhaps a cause for concern... But I think there's talent there. It's unproven in proper games but still, it's there. I mean who are we really missing from last year? Crowder? I liked Crowder but he is replaceable.
It's true that we could be unlucky enough to have a corps of 'Doctson's' (Now being used as a describing word for anyone who underperforms their potential!). However I believe it's much more likely we'll see a couple of break outs this year. The Skins have basically set the table for one or more of these guys to step up and establish themselves as a go-to target. I'm excited to see how it plays out to be honest. I'm expecting someone to establish a rapport with Keenum or Haskins, just not sure who it'll be, but I'm excited to find out.

Out TE's I'm fine with (Reed's concussion not withstanding). By his own admission this is the first year in a while his foot has been right. Sprinkle showed me some stuff in pre-season. Davis is always a good veteran presence (if he can limit those drops!). At this point my biggest worry here is that Reed will decide to retire. And I wouldn't blame him if he did.

Hopkins will be Hopkins, Tress will be Tress. Special Teams has looked shaky at times in pre-season, but I like that we have an influx of young talent eager to prove themselves in there.

So... optimistically speaking... are we really that much a worse team than last year? If at all?
I kind of think we may have taken a baby step forwards to be honest. We're younger and have more talent across the board now. Unproven talent in some cases, but the season is where they need to go prove it.

The bigger issue is whether our the teams we play this year have advanced or regressed. You gotta say the Cowboys and Eagles are better than us, or at least more proven. The Giants are in the same sort of boat.

I was listening to the John Keim Report podcast the other day (Or John Kevin as my predictive text on twitter called him... and he noticed!!!!) and he was interviewing Matthew Berry, who said that if we firmly are to believe that this Skins team is a bottom 5 team, then the fact Gruden has been getting 7 wins out of it should make him Coach of the Year candidate. While this may be overblowing Gruden, he does kind of have a point. The press have generally written us off with predictions of 2 or 3 wins total, Leagues worst WR corps etc. So if that IS true and Gruden gets us to 7-9 again or 8-8, what does that say about him?

Personally I think we're a 7-9 team this year anyway. Maybe better if we can duplicate last years playstyle but without the injuries. I think we'll surprise people this year.

One last thing to comment on.
The influx of Bama players, especially on Defense seems to have this team playing with a different mindset than I've seen in recent years. Losing begets losing sometimes, but the vibe you get from people like Allen, Payne etc is that last year was just year 1, and that they're ready to step up this year. I'm not sure those guys will tolerate losing, which sometimes seems like something we've been guilty of with the Skins of the past. Maybe it's just me, but from listening to the interviews and the reports from Camp etc, this team just feels different to me.

Go on... you can tell me I'm crazy! :D
 
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You ain't crazy, Knight.

I do think a lot of the "3 wins" predictions are because of Gruden. The mediots don't have any more faith in him than idiots, like me, do.

No way to prove it, but I'd bet dollars to donuts that if Gibbs, Parcells, Andy Reid, or The Cheater, were head coach of this exact squad, we'd be in every conversation as being a division/playoff contender. Gruden just does not inspire confidence.

But, as always, I have hope. I don't think we're near as bad as some appear to believe.
 
So H. - we're having a conversation about the potential of this year's team, but we aren't supposed to discuss the potential of new players? Quinn is talented. McLaurin is super talented. Sims has shown flashes of incredible talent. Harmon is talented. Robert Davis is talented. Obviously, we don't know until we know. But our WR corps is absolutely better this year than the past couple - and I don't think that's a stretch. Our RB corps may be one of the top groups in the NFL (when we get Bryce Love is active next year, watch out). We were 29th in total offense last season. That sucks, although it really was more a function of having NO QBs the last 1/4 of the season, and the general approach overall of ball control and pounding the rock vs. the passing game.

It's fair to say 'potential' doesn't mean ****. Unless you're talking about potential for the coming season. In which case, it matters. I think predicting our offense will be a 'hot mess' is over the top. We have a lot of talent. If/when Haskins gets in there, we are going to see a transformational change (perhaps not immediately, but over time).

I'm also predicting that TW reports to work next week. It's either that or he goes Andrew Luck on us. And I just don't believe he'll do that.
 
So H. - we're having a conversation about the potential of this year's team, but we aren't supposed to discuss the potential of new players? Quinn is talented. McLaurin is super talented. Sims has shown flashes of incredible talent. Harmon is talented. Robert Davis is talented. Obviously, we don't know until we know. But our WR corps is absolutely better this year than the past couple - and I don't think that's a stretch. Our RB corps may be one of the top groups in the NFL (when we get Bryce Love is active next year, watch out). We were 29th in total offense last season. That sucks, although it really was more a function of having NO QBs the last 1/4 of the season, and the general approach overall of ball control and pounding the rock vs. the passing game.

It's fair to say 'potential' doesn't mean ****.

Note on all this...

If you start looking at the talented players with things to prove this year, you're looking at a long list...

Haskins, Quinn, Guice, McLaurin, Sims, Harmon, Davis, Sweat, etc

By sheer odds alone, at least a few of these have GOT TO break out this year surely. We'd have to be extremely unlucky (or maybe disfunctional) if they ALL turned out to be like Doctson.

I realistically expect to see at least four or five our our rookies/sophmores break out this year.
I think it's likely to be Guice, Sweat, Quinn and Davis.
I also think that if we see Haskins hit the field, his comfort with McLaurin might see something special there too.

But honestly the most intriguing prospects might be our young O-linesmen. How long before we see the youth movement get up to speed enough to replace Flowers and Penn?
Because if they can show strides this year in game action, then we could be seeing a young solid O-line next year when Haskins should be starter. And THAT prospect along with Guice and a breakout couple of receivers could see us with an offense good enough to start making waves when coupled with a stingy D.

I've been burnt before, (for the past 25 years), but I'm really intrigued to see where this youth movement takes us. Especially if (as I mentioned above) we can foster in our young guys an expectation to win. Sometimes I think the Skins have become complacent with losing or being mediocre as being ok. Always an excuse. But those Bama boys especially are used to winning, and I'm hoping that with so many of them now on the team that they bring that mindset to the locker room. Losing won't be tolerated!
 
Side note - it's nice to see all the great conversation regardless of where you fall on the spectrum of hopelessness and skepticism - I appreciate you guys :cheers:


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So H. - we're having a conversation about the potential of this year's team, but we aren't supposed to discuss the potential of new players?

You can discuss whatever you like, B. I'm thoroughly enjoying this thread and I'm glad you started it.

You wanted to move on with the discussion and had asked what we guys think, I was saying what I thought. Shrug.

Quinn is talented. McLaurin is super talented. Sims has shown flashes of incredible talent. Harmon is talented. Robert Davis is talented.

Everyone in the NFL is super talented. Quinn had 9 receptions for 75 yards last year. Cam Sims had 0 receptions for 0 yards last year. Robert Davis had 0 receptions for 0 yards the past two years. McLauren has never played in the NFL. Harmon has never played in the NFL.

These are the guys we are hanging our WR hat on. There is literally not one WR on this team that has proven he can so much as be a solid #2 on any other team in the league. There's not one guy on this team that we can count on to carry the WR corps while the young guys get up to speed. Not one.

Having a rookie or a second year guy with potential on the team is great. Having two is great. Relying on five of them to make up the entire WR corps. Not great.

Maybe we'll get lucky and a couple of these guys will pan out. Right away. I will hope as strongly as you that this is the case.

Our RB corps may be one of the top groups in the NFL (when we get Bryce Love is active next year, watch out).

Peterson was awesome last year. And having Guice back gives us decent depth. Like I said, this is probably our best unit, though given Peterson's age (and wear and tear) and Guice's injury there is a lingering question mark about just how effective these guy will be. If we had other offensive weapons to rely on besides the run game I wouldn't be as worried about these guys. Given that they are going to have to carry the offense on their back ... I'm a little more worried.

We were 29th in total offense last season. That sucks, although it really was more a function of having NO QBs the last 1/4 of the season, and the general approach overall of ball control and pounding the rock vs. the passing game.

Was it really? Was the offense some sort of powerhouse before Smith went down? Because I seem to remember our offense being pretty terrible all year long.

If you only count the first nine weeks of the season (before the Texan game where Smith went down) the Redskins offense averaged 19.5 points and 337.4 yards a game. That would have put us at 27th and 24th overall, respectively. I seem to remember that the drum we were banging back then was Smith needed a year to learn the system and then things would take off. I would assume the same would be true for Keenum?

I'm not trying to be snotty. I honestly can't see where the yards will be coming from this year. It's pretty much Peterson and ... that's it. God help us if he goes down.

It's fair to say 'potential' doesn't mean ****. Unless you're talking about potential for the coming season. In which case, it matters. I think predicting our offense will be a 'hot mess' is over the top. We have a lot of talent. If/when Haskins gets in there, we are going to see a transformational change (perhaps not immediately, but over time).

I don't think it's over the top at all. We have a lot of young guys. That's not automatically talent. Our offense was terrible last year even before Smith went out. We don't have a QB as capable as Smith this year. Our line is worse. Our WRs are entirely unproven. Our workhorse RB is 34 with 2800 carries under his belt.

I'm also predicting that TW reports to work next week. It's either that or he goes Andrew Luck on us. And I just don't believe he'll do that.

Let's hope you're right. That would certainly help to improve my outlook.

All that said, I'm not sure how far off you and I are, really. You said 3 wins was too pessimistic and so did I. You said we'd have a good defense and so did I. You said we'd do about as well as last year (seven wins, give or take) and said maybe about six. I think maybe our big difference is I'm not as big on our WRs? Honestly, I didn't think I was being all that negative. :)
 
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I agree we're not as far apart as we make it sound :) At best, I'm cautiously optimistic. You misunderstood me on the 29th ranked offense comments. I should have started with my main point, which was that we were anemic as hell even prior to Alex and Colt going down. Yes - we were winning, but in spite of the low-scoring anemic offense, not because of it. After Colt when down it only went from bad to horrific. I was trying to make the argument that the offense HAS to be better in 2019. I understand your point about the WR corps. We don't know what we have. I think we'll feel a lot better about our WRs after this season. I'm either right about that or I'm not. But just because those guys are rookies (or pseudo-rookies in Sims and Quinn's case) doesn't mean we haven't upgraded our WRing corps. I just can't prove it yet :)

Same is going to hold true for the RBs. Guice can flat out run, and if the rep Bryce Love earned before he went down is anything close to accurate, we may have a helluva 1-2 punch in the backfield for the next 4-5 years.
 
I wonder how long it will take some people to "Turn Around" their defense mechanism of negativity, once the team returns to sustained relevance, again.
This is a debate I've had a few times. Overall, we've been so bad for so long, that it seems reasonable that if we had a good season, most people would be hesitant to believe.

Then I look at the Browns. They were far worse for far longer, had a losing season, and they seem to have support coming from all angles, just because of the promise they show after being horrible for so many years.

So it's hard to say, but I think if we could manage to string together back to back division titles or something along those lines, maybe the negativity will fade.
 
Most of the core younger players are under contract for several more seasons.

I don't anticipate the Redskins making progress towards becoming identified as an 'up and coming team' until Haskins gets under center and is able to use his secondary beating downfield distance and accuracy to tilt the playing field.

The Redskins have a lot to do in the meantime. Guice is back and we now have a chance to see him play. Bryce Love is on IR and is someone that may make an impact here at this time next season when we could see Reed and Thompson depart.

At wide receiver, the team finally has size and speed in several players that have definite upside.

This is itself notable as we have gone into past seasons with Crowder, Grant, Doctson and others in the lineup and on the team that we just KNEW were not going to develop into top echelon pass catchers in the NFL.

Their upside to that degree was not there.

To me 2019 is about Guice and the running game, identifying the young WRs that have the most upside and breakout, and continuing to build continuity on defense with a young core.

That speaks to a 7-9 type record with Philly and Dallas in the division and New England early in the schedule where this team will just be getting its bearings.

I fully expect the team to end 2019 with a much better second half than what we see those first 5-6 games.

Keenum, unlike Sanchez and some of the others last year and guys going back to Rex Grossman and Jon Beck, is not a bum.

But he is a player best suited to being a backup that can come in and keep a good team on track for 2 or 3 games while a starter nurses an injury.

And that is the position I believe he will be in for 2020 when the qbs switch and Haskins is the starter and Case is the backup.
 

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