Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions, 2019

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Boone said:

I hear you. I really don't want to trade up. But if they do it, and Haskins turns out to be the real deal (some compare him to Phillip Rivers) - it will have been worth it. You just never know. And we are so due for some good fortune at the QB position.

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Well, and we're not.

We're not playing roulette. Some front offices are good at picking players and some are lousy. Our moves at QB don't crash and burn over and over again because of bad luck. It's because we're bad at making moves at QB. If we trade up, it's more likely than not that this kid, whoever he is, will be a big bust because we are terrible at picking QBs. Or we will drive him into the ground because we don't have a single good player at any other skill-position spot. Or we'll find some un-fixable character flaw and drive him out of town because that's what we do when the other two things don't happen. Frankly, I'd just rather waste one pick on that than four, or five, or whatever the going rate is for a top QB draft pick these days.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go get myself a cup of coffee.

Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions, 2019

I think finding a franchise QB is harder than you're characterizing it, and whiffing at a top QB pick is hardly limited to the Redskins. That's especially true when you don't have a frequent top 5 pick like some of the less successful teams have had more than once. The move to get RG3 was much too expensive, and to a certain extent I'd agree that all such moves are too expensive and risky. I just disagree that that's somehow unique to us(which you didn't say directly but is certainly implied). Finding a franchise QB is akin to shooting craps or the roulette wheel and when you win it's likely as much about luck as smarts. Just my opinion. The house always wins and franchise QBs don't drop into every teams lap even if they are drafting top 5.

You still have to try and find one. I don't want to trade up. I'm just saying if we do, and the guy we draft turns out to be ‘it' (or if you'd prefer, if even all our ineptitude, incompetence, and stupidity fails to prevent us from drafting a true franchise QB), it will have been worth it.
If RG3 had given us a decade of his year 1 self, we'd all look back on that ridiculous deal we made a lot more fondly.

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Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

This would be a good time to take a look at one potential QB for the Skins - Drew Lock of Missouri. Here is some tape with commentary from Mark Tyler of Hogs Haven. He did a guest mock for us recently.

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Boone said:

I think finding a franchise QB is harder than you're characterizing it, and whiffing at a top QB pick is hardly limited to the Redskins. That's especially true when you don't have a frequent top 5 pick like some of the less successful teams have had more than once. The move to get RG3 was much too expensive, and to a certain extent I'd agree that all such moves are too expensive and risky. I just disagree that that's somehow unique to us(which you didn't say directly but is certainly implied). Finding a franchise QB is akin to shooting craps or the roulette wheel and when you win it's likely as much about luck as smarts. Just my opinion. The house always wins and franchise QBs don't drop into every teams lap even if they are drafting top 5.

You still have to try and find one. I don't want to trade up. I'm just saying if we do, and the guy we draft turns out to be ‘it' (or if you'd prefer, if even all our ineptitude, incompetence, and stupidity fails to prevent us from drafting a true franchise QB), it will have been worth it.
If RG3 had given us a decade of his year 1 self, we'd all look back on that ridiculous deal we made a lot more fondly.

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Not to belabor this point, because I know I mention it all the time, but we've had three QBs win our division over the past 20 years. They were all pro-bowlers. Two of them were very young, and the third started for seven more seasons and went on to win a superbowl with another team. All three of these division-winning, pro-bowl calibre QBs were off the team within three seasons of winning the division. That's not bad luck. That's a pattern.

Like I said, it's not roulette. It's more like Poker. You don't have control over what cards you are dealt, but you can play your cards well or you can play them badly. If you play them badly it doesn't matter what cards you get.

What is unique to the Redskins is not that they sometimes get a bad hand. It's that the Redskins are terrible at playing the good ones they get. I'd rather not trade away a ton of picks based on this front office's QB evaluation prowess. I'd rather they just pick a guy, and if he busts out or is driven out of town, then at least we've only wasted one pick. If this team wins anything it will be with that defense, and that defense needs all the picks it can get.

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Henry said:

Not to belabor this point, because I know I mention it all the time, but we've had three QBs win our division over the past 20 years. They were all pro-bowlers. Two of them were very young, and the third started for seven more seasons and went on to win a superbowl with another team. All three of these division-winning, pro-bowl calibre QBs were off the team within three seasons of winning the division. That's not bad luck. That's a pattern.

Like I said, it's not roulette. It's more like Poker. You don't have control over what cards you are dealt, but you can play your cards well or you can play them badly. If you play them badly it doesn't matter what cards you get.

What is unique to the Redskins is not that they sometimes get a bad hand. It's that the Redskins are terrible at playing the good ones they get. I'd rather not trade away a ton of picks based on this front office's QB evaluation prowess. I'd rather they just pick a guy, and if he busts out or is driven out of town, then at least we've only wasted one pick. If this team wins anything it will be with that defense, and that defense needs all the picks it can get.

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I got nuthin'

Great post Brother Henry.


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Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Just a brief look at Drew Lock this morning.

After the draft and OTAs/Mini-Camps, I plan to learn how to splice these videos and paste them online. It will be helpful to everyone here and provide us with more insight into prospects for 2020 and beyond. Trying to constantly upgrade the in-season and off-season blogs is a good thing.

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Interesting stat on Twitter. Only 19% of current QB starters were drafted beyond round 2. And that's league-wide. This is a compelling argument for the Redskins - if they are going to draft QB, to do so early.


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Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Boone said:

I got nuthin'

Great post Brother Henry.


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Well that's no fun.

Let just hope that whoever they draft and whatever they do works out this time. One thing I think we can agree on is that the FANS are due for some good fortune.

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

Boone said:

Interesting stat on Twitter. Only 19% of current QB starters were drafted beyond round 2. And that's league-wide. This is a compelling argument for the Redskins - if they are going to draft QB, to do so early.


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Well, 100% of the QBs the Redskins have drafted in the 1st round in the past 57 years have been busts. So I think we are all still scared about this. For whatever reason, they just never get it right when taking a QB early.


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Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,

While I'm personally of the opinion that it's best to grab developmental QB beyond round 1 this year and role the dice in 2020 to draft a potential franchise QB, one also has to consider the following...

a) With the exception of the 2014 season where our Redskins won 4 games, Gruden's teams have finished between 7 to 9 wins for each of the last four seasons under his watch.

b) In the not too distant past, we gave up a king's ransom to acquire Robert Griffin. The sting of that acquisition is still fresh in the minds' of many Redskins fans.

So, while the QB class for the 2020 draft might be head and shoulders better than the 2019 class, the bottom line is that it is not unreasonable to think that the Redskins could very well be in another situation where we are stuck in the #10 to 16 pick range of the 2020 draft. We might be staring another situation in the face where it requires a major investment to move up in the draft to get a QB. Would the F.O. be willing to take that gamble again? If we did go that route, would it immediately change the strategy for the next offseason and become one where the franchise relies more heavily on free agency to fill out needs as a result of likely having fewer picks to move up in the draft? Would the teams possibly drafting ahead of us even be willing to move out of their draft positions, or are they ones that will be just as hungry as us to land a franchise signal-caller? Are the chances increased of striking out on a franchise QB two years in a row if we try to stay patient and wait until 2020?

Essentially, there is so much unpredictability. While the quality of QBs available this year might not be as strong as what's coming up the draft pipeline in 2020, it might just be a case of there being too much that has to go right for all the stars to align in the Redskins favour.

Do you take a little less "talent" at the position in this draft, knowing that you have at least secured a prospect who can turn into something for your franchise? Or, do you wait another season and run the risk of leaving two straight drafts possibly empty-handed at the QB position?

At the end of the day, while it might not be the strategy I agree with, I will understand if the Redskins go QB in Round 1 this year.

A very difficult decision to say the least.

Re: Burner's Burning Questions: Free Agency, Mocks, Camps, OTAs, Roster Predictions,