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The NFC East the Rest of the Way

Boone

The Commissioner
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Thought it would be interesting to compare and contrast the remaining games the NFC East competitors have to navigate the rest of the way. For obvious reasons, not looking at the Giants.

Redskins - Current Record 6-6
vs. Texans LOSS
at Cowboys LOSS
at Eagles LOSS
vs. Giants
at Jaguars
at Titans
vs. Eagles

Eagles - Current Record 6-6
at Saints LOSS
vs. Giants WIN
vs. Redskins WIN
at Cowboys
at Rams
vs. Texans
at Redskins

Cowboys - Current Record 7-5
at Falcons WIN
vs. Redskins WIN
vs. Saints WIN
vs. Eagles
at Colts
vs. Bucs
at Giants
 
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A lot of football left.

Of course, the NFL will always do whatever they can to ensure the Cowboys make the playoffs. It's why they get the annual advantage of playing at home every Thanksgiving.
Which is total BS. And this year, they get the extra advantage of 3 straight home games, beginning with Thanksgiving. Plus, as it's worked out, they essentially have bye's the last 2 weeks. I think they have the table set up for them the best. I think the only sure loss they have is the Saints. And with "Any Given Sunday" lurking about, that's not guaranteed either.

We have little room for error. Hopefully the return of some healthy bodies will get us over the hump.
 
Can't agree Ax. They won't beat the Saints. The Falcons are 3-2 at home and that'll be a tough test for Dallas who has only won one on the road in 2018. Colts are improving and are on a 3 game win streak. I'll give them the win against the Bucs, but as we have seen if Fitzpatrick gets hot, that is not guaranteed.
 
Oh you're right, nothing's guaranteed.

But until the Cowboys are dead, cut up, and buried in 15 different places around the country, they are a problem.

And they still have the easiest schedule left, IMHO.

But if we get them, and the Texans in our win column over the next 9 days, I'll feel better. :paranoid:
 
Good summary Boone. The bottom line is if the Redskins beat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, they bury them. Dallas has to make up at least 3 games, this weekends games notwithstanding. If they also beat the Eagles the next week, they bury them as well. At minimum a split with the Eagles is a good thing because the Eagles can't make up ground without sweeping the Redskins. The following week the two play each other and one of them will be eliminated from the NFC East race if the Redskins take care of business against the two.

I'm not counting any chickens before they are hatched. The task ahead is still a tough one. But the path is there right in front of them. And their path is easier than the path of the other two.


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If we were healthier, we'd clearly be the favorite. But we're not.
Dallas has the easier schedule. They're healthier. And the NFL desperately wants them in the post season.
 
If we were healthier, we'd clearly be the favorite. But we're not.
Dallas has the easier schedule. They're healthier. And the NFL desperately wants them in the post season.

We want them skirting the playoffs, too. That just means more Jason Garrett. Haha!
 
Tell you what ... it's easy to lose sight of just how different the offense is heading into the stretch than it was on opening day. It's frustrating and accomplishes nothing, but not recognizing the impact of the injury factor does the team a disservice. I re-watched the Cardinals game for shits and giggles, and the difference is really stark.

No Thompson, no Crowder, no Kelley, no Quinn (for heaven's sake), no Trent, no Lavauo, no Sherff, no Richardson ... with all the pieces in place, the offense had pace, precision, even a little dynamism. Down half the starting lineup we're fighting with one arm tied behind our backs.

Not excuses. Factors.

Just once it'd be nice to NOT be among the league leaders in key man games lost heading into a playoff stretch.
 
Thank you Brother @Om

People complain about us 'winning ugly', but what in the hell do you expect wins to look like when you've literally lost half of your starters on offense and have a new QB to boot? That's not to say there aren't valid criticisms, such as why we aren't making better use of our above average TE group - but it's also possible teams know we can't beat them with our WRs and are keying on those guys. I don't know. But I do know that getting this team to 6-3 with the challenges they've faced, that is a helluva job by this coaching staff.
 
No Thompson, no Crowder, no Kelley, no Quinn (for heaven's sake), no Trent, no Lavauo, no Sherff, no Richardson ... with all the pieces in place, the offense had pace, precision, even a little dynamism. Down half the starting lineup we're fighting with one arm tied behind our backs.

OK, so let's take a look at the injury bug that has hit us again...many of those players are the same as last year.

Chris Thompson - oft injured, gets things done, Kapri Bibbs has very similar numbers except the first 2 games of the season against the Cardinals where Thompson rushed for 65 yards, and the Colts game where he caught 13 passes. Bibbs is not Thompson, but has filled in well, same number of TD's in same amount of play time. Definite effect on our offense with his absence. How much? I say not nearly as much as you guys suggest since we're getting so much production from our starting RB.

Crowder, I think we saw last year, w/out a #1 or even a #2 WR to keep some of the pressure off him he has trouble getting open. With that said, Harris has stepped up. Little to no effect on the performance of our offense. Wouldn't be a bit surprised if he's not even a Redskins' WR next year.

Richardson - really? Dude had a couple nice catches, but wreaks of bust. He never did anything here, why should this be another "critical injury"? No effect. It's made Doctson step up, and he's got better numbers than Richardson did.

Trent, Lavauo, and Scherff - OK, Scherff and Trent = no bueno, but the offense sputtered with them in there. Lavauo - his replacement did more in one game to suggest he is better.

I will go further on the OL...Except for a couple of mistakes, which you'd expect from a rag tag group, that OL played very well with our 3/5 of the starters out. While not a "push", this is not a major factor in the poor performance of our offense. That line did more than enough to give Smith a chance at success.

Kelley - Yeah, that injury gave us Peterson, so...I'm not so sure that injury should even be mentioned.

Quinn - This is another one of those, this guy could be the sleeper we've been looking for for years, based on a solid pre-season, but we really don't know. Guys...he has not proven anything in the NFL and we're calling this injury a factor in the offense's woes? I will go so far as to suggest the Cam Simms is a bigger absence on offense than Quinn.

Yes, there is going to be an effect when the starters on your team go down, and we've had a lot of injuries, but they have not been nearly as effective as they were last year yet Kirk still commanded that offense, and threw for over 4k yards, 27 TD's. Yes there were a lot of INT's, but I chalk that up to him trying too hard because he had nothing to work with. He is on pace to have more TD's and less INT's this year in MN.

As Ax always says, next man up. This year, in most cases, the next man has stepped up. I will state the injuries from last year had a major effect, probably 2 wins more? This year? I do not believe the injury bug is nearly as hurtful...we simply have a QB who is not as good at making things happen with his play/leadership.
 
Thank you Brother @Om
why we aren't making better use of our above average TE group - but it's also possible teams know we can't beat them with our WRs and are keying on those guys.

It's hard to buy that when it's 3rd and 5 and Jordan Reed is shown sitting on the bench.

I just don't understand the mentality there. We're down to a skeleton crew,yet we're going to take our best TE/receiver and sit him on a critical third down(which this season especially, all of them are)

Gruden needs to take the bubble wrap off and use him.
 
I'd definitely feel more confident if we were healthy.

Don't know if any of you listen to the Redskins Talk Podcast with JP Finlay, but he has a brief interview with Gruden after every game, win or lose. They're only about 5-10 mins in length and need to be taken with a pinch of salt, but they do sometimes give some snippets of info.

He talked a little about the offense this week and the struggles. Apparently they leaned on the run and the short pass game this week to try and minimise the O-Lines exposure. He wanted to play in a tempo package (like they did in the 2 min drill before half time) and that was apparently on his play sheet to do so (because Alex seems more comfortable in that) but due to the penalties that never happened as drives ground to a halt. He did say they'd try to do more of that.

On D, JP asked him about the odd stat of the Buccs getting 500 yards and only scoring 3 points. Apparently they knew they'd be vulnerable to the pass. They wanted Norman on Evans as much as possible, but he acknowledged that it left rookies on DJax and Godwin. I think the Skins are aware that a passing team is going to burn them at the mo, they're hoping with Clinton Dix up to speed more and the return of Dunbar they can shore that up a bit, but I think the plan is to make Offenses one dimensional (i.e. take away the run).

Closing out the season, I suspect we'll pretty much split the last 7 games. I'd like a 4-3 split, but I could see a 3-4. Giving us at least 9-7 to exit the season.

If that's the case then I struggle to see any other team over taking us. Especially if as part of our win total we can knock them off in the divisional games.

Essentially for the Eagles, assuming they can't beat NO or LA, then they have to go 5 for 5 on the other games. Currently they've not looked like a team that can do that.
The Dallas/Eagles rematch is maybe the key game in the run. Dallas already beat them once. A win either way effectively puts a dent in the chances of the other.
Other than that Dallas also needc to go 5 out of 7 realistically.

I think 'm more worried about Dallas. I find them a hard team to get a read on. There are weeks where they look awful and weeks where they inexplicably catch fire. Maybe that in itself speaks to their chances. To win 5 out of 7 they need consistency and they haven't shown they can do that.

So if we can just play competitive footy down the final straight and win 3 games I think we're pretty safe. 4 games out of 7 for us would seal it I think.
 
You're certainly welcome to that take, El. I just think it seriously undersells the impact of losing ALL those guys. Not just the individual downgrades from position to position, but to the overall synergy of the unit. Watching the early season games again, and comparing the pace and rhythm of the offense then versus now, with all the disparate parts cobbled together from week to week, is impossible to overlook.

Not excuses. Factors.

As to the criticism of Jay and how he's using personnel now, I'd be more inclined to buy in if I had access to some film analysis from people who can break down what other teams are doing, what we're doing to counter, and even how certain key plays might have broken had a single player, say a QB, or a fill-in WR, or fill-in OG, simply made the play that was there to be made.

Boone will tell ya ... I've been hardest on two people this year:

One, Gruden .... for failing utterly to have his team look like it was ready to play three times in nine games ... vs Indy, New Orleans and Atlanta. Those were not just ugly losses, they were unprofessional efforts to my eye, and that ultimately comes back to the head coach to me. I'm still unsure how I feel about the guy for that reason going forward. I do give him props for having this team 6-3 (despite losing, yet again, a ridiculous number of key pieces), but at the same time, I never head into a given game anymore without some nagging feeling that maybe this week we'll simply not show up again.

The other steady criticism I've had over the past few weeks has been of Alex Smith. I get that he's playing with half the offense tied behind it's back due to the lost pieces, but I've also thought several times that he simply wasn't taking advantage of certain plays that were there to be made ... more times than I expected from a guy with all that experience. I'm holding out on proclaiming too harsh a judgment still, given the revolving door around him in the huddle every week, but right now I'm leaning toward the sense that overall he's not lived up to what I'd expected.

Soliloquy over.
 
You're certainly welcome to that take, El. I just think it seriously undersells the impact of losing ALL those guys. Not just the individual downgrades from position to position, but to the overall synergy of the unit. Watching the early season games again, and comparing the pace and rhythm of the offense then versus now, with all the disparate parts cobbled together from week to week, is impossible to overlook.

Not excuses. Factors.

OK, then why do I keep hearing about "new offense" if they were hitting on all cylinders early in the season, but injuries are keeping them from doing so now? Wouldn't that suggest the new QB has a handle on the offense, but lacks the player continuity if they're not performing the same?

I admitted, and fully understand what you and Boone are saying. I just don't buy into the severity of the effect, I place more of the onus on Alex Smith. He is just not that good, unless he has the #1 WR, the #1 TE, and the #1 RB in the league with him like his best season, like last year. I think we can all agree, the rub from the start was whether he could have success with such a diminished level of talent here, compared to KC. Looks like he can't, so when injuries occur to the better players on that team, his play is even worse.
 
OK, then why do I keep hearing about "new offense" if they were hitting on all cylinders early in the season, but injuries are keeping them from doing so now? Wouldn't that suggest the new QB has a handle on the offense, but lacks the player continuity if they're not performing the same?
Not sure what you're referring to, here. But you lost me anyway with the "hitting on all cylinders early" part. I never suggested they were, for what it's worth--just that they were a helluva lot more in sync before losing half the starters than they are now. To me that's clear.

I admitted, and fully understand what you and Boone are saying. I just don't buy into the severity of the effect, I place more of the onus on Alex Smith. He is just not that good, unless he has the #1 WR, the #1 TE, and the #1 RB in the league with him like his best season, like last year. I think we can all agree, the rub from the start was whether he could have success with such a diminished level of talent here, compared to KC. Looks like he can't, so when injuries occur to the better players on that team, his play is even worse.
No worries on the first part. We can see the same evidence differently ... and you can draw the wrong conclusions. ;)

As to the Alex Smith part, we're not far apart. He's not played great lately, that's for sure. As to whether that's simply him not playing up to his capabilities, which is kinda where I'm leaning, or if it's that he doesn't HAVE the capabilities on his own, where you seem to be leaning ... that's one I'm not inclined to go 'round on just yet. I want to see the rest of the year--and probably another year--before I dig in. Too small a sample size still, for me.
 
But until the Cowboys are dead, cut up, and buried in 15 different places around the country, they are a problem.

Oh BTW, if that should ever happen, none of you here ever knew me. It's for your own good, trust me...
 
Tell you what ... it's easy to lose sight of just how different the offense is heading into the stretch than it was on opening day. It's frustrating and accomplishes nothing, but not recognizing the impact of the injury factor does the team a disservice. I re-watched the Cardinals game for shits and giggles, and the difference is really stark.

No Thompson, no Crowder, no Kelley, no Quinn (for heaven's sake), no Trent, no Lavauo, no Sherff, no Richardson ... with all the pieces in place, the offense had pace, precision, even a little dynamism. Down half the starting lineup we're fighting with one arm tied behind our backs.

Not excuses. Factors.

Just once it'd be nice to NOT be among the league leaders in key man games lost heading into a playoff stretch.

Agreed brother. Then again, it was the Cards. Their D this season will never be confused with the Bears 46 from 1985. Just sayin'.
 
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As El stated, I am a "next man up" kind of guy. It doesn't mean I don't acknowledge the damage done to the team as a result of injuries. It's just that, regardless, it's up to the coach to have whatever body is taking someone's spot, to be prepared. And it's those players responsibility to make themselves as ready to help the team as possible. You still have to play a game.

I do give Smith quite a bit of slack. With a fully healthy squad, I figured it would take until the back half of the season for him to get comfortable with the offense. Let alone the skill players. Sure, I hoped it would happen even sooner. But as it's turned out, the injuries have created a constant state of change. And in a system that has been fragile since day one, I don't think we should be surprised at the snails pace of progress by the offense. Remember, the Greedy Lying Bastard was benched for Colt McCoy in his first foray into the system. Yeah, he was younger, and less experienced than Smith is now. That's why he made a lot more mistakes, and got benched. I think Smith will be fine. Gruden has to do a better job of game planning during the week, and play calling during games.

Of course, Gruden is also "learning" how to be more reliant on the run. Which is new to him. And he struggles with it. When your head coach is struggling to learn a new way to do things, how can that NOT trickle down to the QB's performance, as well. He and the staff have a done a decent job plugging holes left by injury. I think he still lacks the ability to improvise and adapt his scheme to his players. He's too rigid in his belief in the system.

I hope he'll do better. It's the only way we win the division. Even with the injuries, we have the players to finish well, and win the division.
I will lay it all on the coaches if we don't.
 
It's hard to buy that when it's 3rd and 5 and Jordan Reed is shown sitting on the bench.

I just don't understand the mentality there. We're down to a skeleton crew,yet we're going to take our best TE/receiver and sit him on a critical third down(which this season especially, all of them are)

Gruden needs to take the bubble wrap off and use him.


As well as often taking our best offensive weapon off the field in the same situation..... AP. I understand he may not be a '3rd down back' but the dude can damn near get 3 yards by himself with no help from his blockers... Having him in the game forces the defense to pay attention and instantly slows the pass rush. I don't need AP in there on 3rd and 8... I want Bibbs, but 3rd and very short... why is his presence not being used...
 
Ax has the right of it. Gruden doesn't seem capable of in game adjustments. You can have the best gameplan with the best scheme in the world, but if it isn't working for whatever reason, at half or even before you need to adapt. I haven't seen much of that in his tenure. Of course not many have ever been as adept at that as JG was, so my yardstick may be a little unfair for Jay, but a little flexibility would be nice.
 

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