Re: Burner's Burning Questions: News, Grades, Evals, Questions, Regular Season, 2018
It's a stumper ain't it. LOL
I probably should have put my thoughts in on this too, rather than just the questions...
I agree. I'm actually quite bullish on how good we're going to be. We may not be the polished finished article this year, but I love the pieces we've got and I believe that (as you say, if they can stay healthy) we'll be much improved. I honestly cannot believe we'll be as snakebit as we were last year. A part of me hopes we have a year broadly free of injuries to balance out last year and bring us back towards the mean again. But this D-Line has me very excited for the future. If our O-Line can live up to their reputation as being one of the best in the game, and our D-Line can be improved and more importantly YOUNG, then we look solid in the trenches and from such foundations our team can grow!
I Think this is the area that actually worries me the most. I hope that, as you said, the line collapsing the pocket will help... and I KNOW that you can't tell much from pre-season... but we looked awful in that dress rehearsal game and it was enough to give me some doubts. Fingers crossed on this one for me.
Maybe I worded this a little wrongly. I don't expect him to fully reproduce last years form as he had a career year and this year he is a year older and in a new system. BUT count me amongst the people who believe we'll be better off with him under center that with Kirk. I liked Kirk, but I think we saw enough ups and downs from him over the last few years that makes me believe that Smith may be a steadier hand.
You're right, it probably is overstated a little, but as he's such a key part of our offence when he's not playing it's impact is felt more so than with most other players. Averaging 12 games in a 16 game season means missing 25% of the games. Which is a pretty big percentage for such a key player. Vernon stepped up last year, as did Thompson till his injury, but to truly fulfil our potential on O we need him available as much as possible, especially for key divisional games. I'm really hoping that his surgery gets him right for this year and we see the player from 2016 again.
I think my worry here is.... he was having a real breakout year last year and the league took notice. He became the safety valve for Kirk that Reed had previously been, with more receiving yards than rushing. This year with Reed hopefully back, with Peterson in the backfield and with a new QB who he hasn't really worked with yet... will he be the same dynamic player we saw last year? I'm expecting yes. In fact, as you say, I think he'll fit with Smith wonderfully and hopefully our 3rd down issues will be a thing of the past. Fingers crossed.
Another one I'm bullish on. I think some of the problem last year was Kirk not going to him for whatever reason. Gruden alluded as much a bunch of times in interview. I think we'll see Smith use him much more and as their chemistry and confidence grows I think they'll go from strength to strength. I hope so at least. A lot of pundits are questioning our Offence this year, but I think we have some great weapons if they fulfill their potential. I wouldn't want to face us if Smith gets on the same page as Reed, Thompson, Davis, Crowder and Doctson. There's alot of passing threats to cover that could be very reliable targets. Which in turn could open up the run game and if Peterson has anything left in the tank... we could be really explosive on O.
You know when you have a gut feel on something... Something about Richardson gives me a bad feeling.
To be fair I'm almost always wrong LOL But I have this feeling like RIchardson is going to be average to disappointing for us.... but I feel like Quinn could be very important. LOL I have no logical basis for these feelings.
Logically, like you I think he has more potential to be good with us, but I'm not sure he can be our true number 1 receiver. Here's hoping!.
What I want from Peterson is the threat of a breakout game. I hope he's good for 16 games as the lead back in a running back by committee approach I think we'll be forced to take. What I like about Peterson is the threat. I don't think opposing defences are scared of Kelley and co, but when you put Peterson out there he's shown in the preseason that he can still be a threat to breakout. I want that fear to keep D's honest. I don't need him to have a 1000 yard season, I just want him available in 16 games this year to put the fear of God into defences at the times of our choosing.
He certainly won't be a 3 down back, but I think if we're sensible using him we could have a dangerous weapon for tactical situations, even if it's simply as a misdirection for a pass play.
I think my question here is more... We have Thompson back, we have Peterson and we have other capable backs. We also have a QB who does his best work when supported by a run game. With these tools I don't want to see Gruden being pass happy. I sometimes think Gru is unfairly maligned for being pass happy, but he has shown in the past he will ride a run game if it's hot in the past. I don't mind a pass biased offence, but there were times last year when he just got away from the run, even using it to set up the passing game. To be fair I don't think he's ever really had the tools in regards to the RB's we've had. This year could be different.
I also think there are lessons to be learned this year for when we get Guice back next year.
Anyway that's my thoughts.
I know that schedules are 'on paper' and that power hierarchy changes from year to year. But my question is - how does a non-playoff team get repeatedly assigned one of the top 3 hardest schedules in the league? Something seriously wrong with that process if you ask me.
It's a stumper ain't it. LOL
And since you took the time to post some intriguing factors that may largely determine how well the team does, I'll give my responses and maybe others will too:
I probably should have put my thoughts in on this too, rather than just the questions...
Is our new D-Line going to be as good as we hope? It's going to be better than we hope. If they stay healthy we may have a top 3 or 4 unit by year's end.
I agree. I'm actually quite bullish on how good we're going to be. We may not be the polished finished article this year, but I love the pieces we've got and I believe that (as you say, if they can stay healthy) we'll be much improved. I honestly cannot believe we'll be as snakebit as we were last year. A part of me hopes we have a year broadly free of injuries to balance out last year and bring us back towards the mean again. But this D-Line has me very excited for the future. If our O-Line can live up to their reputation as being one of the best in the game, and our D-Line can be improved and more importantly YOUNG, then we look solid in the trenches and from such foundations our team can grow!
Can our your CB's defend the pass, or are we going to rue letting Fuller go? Yes - because we are going to be consistently collapsing the pocket on passing downs which will make our CB talent look much better than talent levels may suggest.
I Think this is the area that actually worries me the most. I hope that, as you said, the line collapsing the pocket will help... and I KNOW that you can't tell much from pre-season... but we looked awful in that dress rehearsal game and it was enough to give me some doubts. Fingers crossed on this one for me.
Can Smith reproduce his form from last year in a different uniform? No. Smith's averages are something like 3400 passing yards a season, 18-20 TD passes, 7 INTs or so. He's efficient, not prolific. But he's what we need. He rarely makes mistakes. And is a very accurate and savvy short passing game manager who also knows how to elude pressure.
Maybe I worded this a little wrongly. I don't expect him to fully reproduce last years form as he had a career year and this year he is a year older and in a new system. BUT count me amongst the people who believe we'll be better off with him under center that with Kirk. I liked Kirk, but I think we saw enough ups and downs from him over the last few years that makes me believe that Smith may be a steadier hand.
Will Reed last more than a few games? Reed has lasted more than a 'few games' every season (except last year). In the 4 games prior to 2017, he's averaged 12 games a season. His 'brittleness' is a little overstated. So I have to believe he'll return to his average of playing about 2/3rds of the season.
You're right, it probably is overstated a little, but as he's such a key part of our offence when he's not playing it's impact is felt more so than with most other players. Averaging 12 games in a 16 game season means missing 25% of the games. Which is a pretty big percentage for such a key player. Vernon stepped up last year, as did Thompson till his injury, but to truly fulfil our potential on O we need him available as much as possible, especially for key divisional games. I'm really hoping that his surgery gets him right for this year and we see the player from 2016 again.
Will Thompson come back and continue his breakout form from last year? I don't know. But the past 2 seasons he's been a crucial part of Gruden's offense and a crucial 'safety valve' for Cousins. His versatility really helps us because we can mask our intentions when he's in there. No reason to think, given the nature of his injury last year, that he won't return 100% but how much of a favored target he will be for Smith is an open question.
I think my worry here is.... he was having a real breakout year last year and the league took notice. He became the safety valve for Kirk that Reed had previously been, with more receiving yards than rushing. This year with Reed hopefully back, with Peterson in the backfield and with a new QB who he hasn't really worked with yet... will he be the same dynamic player we saw last year? I'm expecting yes. In fact, as you say, I think he'll fit with Smith wonderfully and hopefully our 3rd down issues will be a thing of the past. Fingers crossed.
Will Doctson break out? I don't know. If by 'break out' you mean that Smith will actually consistently target him instead of using him like a 1 trick pony, I have to believe he will. That's one of the reasons we could thrive with Smith. We need to start using his physicality on slants and over the middle routes instead of just having him run post patterns and go after jump balls in the end zone. He's an Art Monk like WR and needs to be used that way. I'll say this - he needs to be targeted 150 times minimum this season, and he needs to finally exceed 50% catch %.
Another one I'm bullish on. I think some of the problem last year was Kirk not going to him for whatever reason. Gruden alluded as much a bunch of times in interview. I think we'll see Smith use him much more and as their chemistry and confidence grows I think they'll go from strength to strength. I hope so at least. A lot of pundits are questioning our Offence this year, but I think we have some great weapons if they fulfill their potential. I wouldn't want to face us if Smith gets on the same page as Reed, Thompson, Davis, Crowder and Doctson. There's alot of passing threats to cover that could be very reliable targets. Which in turn could open up the run game and if Peterson has anything left in the tank... we could be really explosive on O.
Is Richardson the real deal or another Pryor in the making? Richardson has great hands and speed. He's caught nearly 60% of passes thrown at him in the 3 full seasons he played in Seattle. Smith is going to throw to the WRs that are reliable. He is that guy. Pryor had 1 good season with 77 catches and 1000 yds but his resume was otherwise yawn-inducing. The only question with Richardson is whether he can be a true #1 , but there's a lot more basis for hope there than there ever should've been with Pryor.
You know when you have a gut feel on something... Something about Richardson gives me a bad feeling.
To be fair I'm almost always wrong LOL But I have this feeling like RIchardson is going to be average to disappointing for us.... but I feel like Quinn could be very important. LOL I have no logical basis for these feelings.
Logically, like you I think he has more potential to be good with us, but I'm not sure he can be our true number 1 receiver. Here's hoping!.
Can Peterson last 16 games? Can our backup RB's actually make a Run game by committee work? No. In a decade he's only done it 4 times. At 33 years old and with almost 3000 touches under his belt, it's not likely he will play in every game. It's unlikely he will be a 3 down back with Thompson and our other RBs likely to get significant carries, so that may help keep him healthy. That's not the real question though. The question is, can he look as good against starting NFL defenses at age 33 (and with our rushing scheme) as he did in a single preseason game. For our rushing game to 'work', it just needs to be a viable threat that teams respect. So I think the answer will be mostly 'yes'.
What I want from Peterson is the threat of a breakout game. I hope he's good for 16 games as the lead back in a running back by committee approach I think we'll be forced to take. What I like about Peterson is the threat. I don't think opposing defences are scared of Kelley and co, but when you put Peterson out there he's shown in the preseason that he can still be a threat to breakout. I want that fear to keep D's honest. I don't need him to have a 1000 yard season, I just want him available in 16 games this year to put the fear of God into defences at the times of our choosing.
He certainly won't be a 3 down back, but I think if we're sensible using him we could have a dangerous weapon for tactical situations, even if it's simply as a misdirection for a pass play.
Will Gruden commit to the run behind Peterson? Again - what do you mean by 'commit'? If Peterson averages 5 yards a carry, Gruden's no fool - he'll give him 15+ carries a game. But Gruden is always going to run a pass heavy offense. So my answer would be 'No' as I think you're asking if we'll be a pound it on the ground team with Peterson getting most of the carries. That's not going to happen for a lot of reasons. I'm not sure we need that to be a highly effective offense. We need to be a top 12 or so rushing team and anything better than that is gravy.
I think my question here is more... We have Thompson back, we have Peterson and we have other capable backs. We also have a QB who does his best work when supported by a run game. With these tools I don't want to see Gruden being pass happy. I sometimes think Gru is unfairly maligned for being pass happy, but he has shown in the past he will ride a run game if it's hot in the past. I don't mind a pass biased offence, but there were times last year when he just got away from the run, even using it to set up the passing game. To be fair I don't think he's ever really had the tools in regards to the RB's we've had. This year could be different.
I also think there are lessons to be learned this year for when we get Guice back next year.
Anyway that's my thoughts.