I don't think the Skins made this move because Smith was 'hot' in 2017 (although he certainly was). Why steer clear of comparisons? Here are some more numbers for you:
Average Pass Attempts Per Start: Smith 30 Cousins 37
Interception %: Smith 2.1 Cousins 2.6
Touchdown %: Smith 4.0 Cousins 4.7
Average Yds Per Completion: Smith 6.9 Cousins 7.7
Average Pass Yards Per Game: Smith 204 Cousins 261
So if you give Smith another 7 passes per game, you're probably looking at a pretty close passing yard average. Smith throws significantly fewer interceptions, but hasn't thrown as many TDs. I think the above stats essentially show one thing. Smith has played on teams with solid rushing attacks that were far more balanced than Cousins has. I think we're going to see Smith match Cousins production #'s if Gruden continues with a more pass happy approach. The argument that Smith HAS TO HAVE all of these weapons and a great rushing attack to be productive, not sure I am buying it.
Good analysis, I had meant to do it myself but got way too busy today. I even had the Pro football reference pages up at some point. Always do like to see the numbers.
Overall, I think Smith could be better than Cousins. I actually think they are a bit similar in many ways, although the career trajectories have been different. Cousins feels like he came from a gunslinger mentality and got a bit more disciplined, and Smith feels like he was getting a bit more confident/gutsy last year.
At the end of the day, big parts of my unease are from these factors - remember I do like Alex Smith:
- Alex is older; I am expecting a decline. Hoping it won't happen too soon.
- I am only a believer in trading draft picks to get the "missing piece" - and for us, no player is that piece. If you aren't getting the missing piece, trading draft picks (or young talent for that matter), just doesn't seem like a recipe for long-term success, and the problem with gunning for short-term success, is contracts run out just when you think you've got it together
- Trading that pick and Fuller sent a signal to me that I've seen over the years; the team is, in my opinion, just way too focused on offense. We'll see if this plays out in the draft and FA. I was happy with finally paying attention to safety last year after how many years? So late though... so late... at what has become a critical position in the pass-happy league of today.
- we will find out about this one soon enough.
- Andy Reid and Jay Gruden are very similar in systems. I think Burgundy Burner pointed this out, and yes, it's definitely the case. Andy Reid, with certain situations, has been a perennial playoff guy. Yes he made the Super Bowl too with the Eagles once. I do think making the playoffs year after year is great, no doubt. But some teams, even if they make the playoffs, just aren't built to win there. The Redskins with Jay Gruden's scheme that I've seen... with Alex Smith and the mentality that I smell from the FO right now.. aren't going to be built to win in the playoffs. People want to say Tom Brady, Bortles, Keenum, Foles. I see 3 great defenses on that list, and as for TB - he eventually helped them up but his D had to make consistent stops to make that possible (with some ref help maybe). I also see some timely running on those teams too.
There is a lot of balance on those teams, and I don't see that in the Redskins, and this trade doesn't make me feel we're heading that way. We'll see what they manage to do in FA and the draft, I'll be paying close attention for sure.
*I do share the relief in moving on from the dead weight of Cousins, year after year after year. I was groaning when I heard some speculate we could have him another year.
Said this earlier - it's the teams that perenially are in the playoffs that have a CHANCE to get to the big game and maybe win one. A team like ours can't look at a player and make 'will he win us multiple Super Bowls?' part of the assessment. I couldn't disagree more with what you are saying here. It's ALL about making the playoffs year after year. You do that, and you give yourself a chance. Teams have shown that if you get to the playoffs, you can get to the Super Bowl and even win one with an above average QB. I think a QB like Alex Smith is absolutely good enough to get us to the playoffs consistently. And if we do that, good things can happen.
Out of curiosity, do you watch the Caps at all? Do you know what has happened to them over the last 12 years? Nats? Not that it's applicable to football, but maybe it sours me on making the playoffs all of the time (which I NEVER thought I'd say back then). And look, I say that same thing many times (make the playoffs year after year, then we got a chance). You are also right, in football, this is true. Do I think that we'll make the playoffs year after year with Smith? I do not think so (I'm not sure though; as structured today, I'd confidently say no). I think it's possible, I like Smith, but I don't think the FO will be able to pull that off (putting a good enough team around him).
Call it an instinct if you don't feel I'm making my case well. I just feel like the balance of Smith's talent with his salary cap hit on this deal, and a feeling that the FO can't match up well with the big boys based on what I see... it leads me to think we are going to be in a similar range of mediocrity while we have Smith. This is an awesome trade if we have all of our ducks in a row OR if Smith is younger and the contract terms are minimum 3 years. I'd be excited then. We have a lot of holes, Smith is older, and we traded young talent and a draft pick (which typically takes time to recover from).
I'll try to keep an open mind, we'll see what they do in the draft and FA. I would have honestly preferred to have Colt start, or get one of the QBs who may be available cheaper (like Tyrod just for kicks, don't think he'd lead us anywhere necessarily but I also think he'd be cheap and fun). In the meantime, build up the other parts of this team while keeping an eye out for a QB to finish. With a Colt or a Tyrod style QB... you could make the playoffs there too. No they aren't as good as Alex (not close), but the price tag would be cheaper, and you'd still have other players (3rd rounder, KF) to help key parts of the team. We (you and I) just don't value Alex (vs his salary and age) the same.