Our 2018 starting QB will be....

OK, Redskins fans. If you don't want to pay Kirk Cousins $28-30M a year on a deal with significant guarantees, how about letting him go in free agency and taking your chances on a quarterback who threw for 4,042 yards, with 26 touchdowns and five interceptions this season? And carries a salary of just $17M in 2018?

Drum roll....................Welcome to Washington, Alex Smith

See?

It's great that Kirk puts up raw stats in terms of yardage and moving between the 20's. But those stats alone don't tell you if a guy has what it takes to lead a team to a championship.

And that's certainly the case with Alex Smith. A perennial post-season participant, in 13 years in the NFL Smith has only quarterbacked his teams to ONE win during that time.

So, no one would call Smith a savior for Washington.

But strictly looking at his stats from 2017 in a vacuum without knowing anything else about the player, those 2017 numbers would have you thinking this quarterback (or Cousins for that matter) belongs up there with the best players in the game.

But it ain't so.

Bulldog's Twin said:

OK, Redskins fans. If you don't want to pay Kirk Cousins $28-30M a year on a deal with significant guarantees, how about letting him go in free agency and taking your chances on a quarterback who threw for 4,042 yards, with 26 touchdowns and five interceptions this season? And carries a salary of just $17M in 2018?

Drum roll....................Welcome to Washington, Alex Smith

See?

It's great that Kirk puts up raw stats in terms of yardage and moving between the 20's. But those stats alone don't tell you if a guy has what it takes to lead a team to a championship.

And that's certainly the case with Alex Smith. A perennial post-season participant, in 13 years in the NFL Smith has only quarterbacked his teams to ONE win during that time.

So, no one would call Smith a savior for Washington.

But strictly looking at his stats from 2017 in a vacuum without knowing anything else about the player, those 2017 numbers would have you thinking this quarterback (or Cousins for that matter) belongs up there with the best players in the game.

But it ain't so.

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While I understand your point, I think it's important to not take relevance for granted. Some of the best QBs in history cut from the same mold. Dan Marino, Randall Cunningham, Jim Kelly, as well as Elway and P. Manning. Both of those guys couldnt win the big game... til they did. Smith seems to be one of those guys who 'can't win in the post season' but he's also playing for a coach that would be in the conversation with Marv Levy regarding 'coaches who cant win the big one.'

This past weekend I told my father in law at half time that the Chiefs were gonna lose, and he laughed at me. Andy Reid is one of the worst 2nd half coaches in history. He's always been a postseason struggle, so how much of that was Smith and how much was Reid?

I'd rather put my money on a team that's there every year and can't seem to get over the hump, than a team that has a flash in the pan and you hope they can get lucky.

Who's our QB in 2018?
Who's a LB, not a QB... I don't know about LBs, just please tell me the name of the QB for next year.
I Don't Know - that's our RB... What has that got to do with the Quarterback?
What, no he's the NT... so, why is What being the NT have anything to do with the QB anyway?
Because... Arrrgghhh. But because why?
Because plays TE and Why is our LG...
Can you just tell me today who will play QB tomorrow.
Today? Today is a CB and Tomorrow plays WR. (note: tomorrow never gets here because by the time it does it's today)
I really don't care now but you actually don't have a clue to the players name that will be the QB in 2018, right?
I Don't Care retired (without ever playing a game).
Don't Have a Clue, he's the HC...

Boone said:

If I were Bruce Allen, my mindset is that the Redskins cannot wait until March to see how the Kirk Cousins drama works itself out. I color Kirk gone. So I have only two options. Franchise him as soon as it's possible and start working on the sign and trade with a QB needy team. Or aggressively work on a trade to get a guy like Bridgewater or Keenum as soon as possible.

The longer we go where there is no news, the more likely we are going to enter the QB draft crapshoot vs. getting a talented younger guy from another NFL team.

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You know I worry that we'll get stuck with having to pay #8 the $34mil if we tag him. Partly because I don't think anybody else in the league will pay him that much. and partly because it would be just our luck.

I would hope a trade has already been worked out with another team BEFORE we slap the tag on #8 .

I'm very pessimistic that we'll get much more than a single 3rd round pick. AND we'll still be stuck with part of his salary. I think we'll have to pay someone to trade for him.

I do hope I am wrong.

Ax said:

I would hope a trade has already been worked out with another team BEFORE we slap the tag on #8 .

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How do you trade a QB who is not under a contract, so technically he's not a Redskin ?

Just let him walk and be done with the drama.
We were fine with letting RG3 walk with zero compensation, and look at what we gave up for him, compared to a 4th round pick for Cousins.

Fear The Spear said:

How do you trade a QB who is not under a contract, so technically he's not a Redskin ?

Just let him walk and be done with the drama.
We were fine with letting RG3 walk with zero compensation, and look at what we gave up for him, compared to a 4th round pick for Cousins.

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They would have to franchise tag him. I don't understand the parallel with RG3. RG3 had already proven that he had a little value as a starting NFL quarterback. Cousins is considered a top-tier starter with great potential.


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Boone said:

They would have to franchise tag him. I don't understand the parallel with RG3. RG3 had already proven that he had a little value as a starting NFL quarterback. Cousins is considered a top-tier starter with great potential.

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Yea, that's why I questioned his proposal to trade him "before" we tag him. So I guess the answer is we can't.
I understand there's no comparison to RG3 as far as current value. I was just looking at it from the perspective of what we originally paid. It takes a lot of balls just to let a guy go with no compensation, just a couple years after giving up, what, 3 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder ?

His proposal was to “work out a deal to trade him” before tagging.

Agreeing on a deal for Cousins before tagging him would require collusion on the part of the teams.
And we all know there is no collusion in the NFL.

Ding Ding! Chris wins the cookie.

A backroom nod and a wink deal "in principal".

The Greedy Lying Bastard and his God (Agent) would dive right into another 1 yr contract, when that contract is for $34mil.

He's already a multi-millionaire. There's zero risk for him. Why would he take less just to get a LTD somewhere else. Especially when he says there are no real LTD's anyway.
If we tag him without a known trading partner lined up, we'll be on the hook for the money, AND another year of this bullshit.

That's my fear, anyway.

Would you really hedge a $34 million dollar bet, by placing confidence in a "backroom nod and a wink" agreement with a team who is aggressively competing against you ?

How easy is it to imagine John Mara to Danny, "We can do this deal, wink, wink"

Then TAG.

Then "Psyche !!!"

Would depend on who the trading partner is. And don't think for a second that the owners don't already do much of their "business" with a wink and a nod.

But you're right, it is a risk.

Either transition tag him, and see how ridiculous the bidding will be. (We'd get a compensatory pick in 2019. I think)

Or wait until 10 seconds before the tag deadline, and just release him.

Ax said:

Or wait until 10 seconds before the tag deadline, and just release him.

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Or wait until 10 seconds before the tag deadline, and do absolutely nothing, which would be the exact same thing as releasing a signed player.

Tagging him is very low risk imho - there are a bevy if teams desperate for a QB of his caliber. And tagging him is the only way we get compensation for him.


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Boone said:

And tagging him is the only way we get compensation for him.

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Unless you count compensatory compensation picks.
That'll be a jackpot, won't it.
Actually we could get a higher pick than we spent on him that way, technically.

Maybe Kirk still ends up a 49er, in some bizarre swap of franchise QB's.

The tag can be rescinded at any time prior to mid July. That is how we got Josh Norman - his tag was rescinded in April and the Redskins were able to snipe him.

Risk for the Redskins is much more minimal than we may think - if Cousin Kirk doesn't sign right away. That is the key to making a wink and nod truly work. The Redskins, trade team, and Kirk would need to agree to these parameters. If that happens, then a long term deal is likely in place with the trade team. It assumes a lot, but it is not impossible.

Burgundy Burner said:

The tag can be rescinded at any time prior to mid July. That is how we got Josh Norman - his tag was rescinded in April and the Redskins were able to snipe him.

Risk for the Redskins is much more minimal than we may think - if Cousin Kirk doesn't sign right away. That is the key to making a wink and nod truly work. The Redskins, trade team, and Kirk would need to agree to these parameters. If that happens, then a long term deal is likely in place with the trade team. It assumes a lot, but it is not impossible.

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Only if it hasn't been signed by the player. Once the player signs, the Tag is then a contract.

We may have missed an opportunity in 2015 to sign Cousins to a medium range deal, but we also missed on an opportunity in 2017 to trade Cousins in the offseason for picks and then draft Deshaun Watson and turn the page on a brighter future without all the baggage.

AND we would have had extra picks to continue to build depth on the roster

Which tags have what conditions...

Exclusive franchise tag - only the Redskins can talk deal with Cousins. His tender is based on 144% of his previous years salary. Around $35M. The first 2 tags were this type, exclusive franchise.

Non-exclusive franchise tag - other teams & the Redskins can negotiate with him as a UFA. The Redskins have the right to match any offer, or receive two first-round picks as compensation from any other team that makes Kirk an offer. Kirk isn't required to sign Washington's offer sheet and can sign with the other team. If Washington doesn't match the offer or if Cousins doesn't sign it that's when you get the 2 first rounders. The normal 1st or 2nd tag tender terms wouldn't apply because of the 144% rule in his case, tag number about $35M.

Transition tag - other teams & the Redskins can negotiate with him as a UFA. The Redskins have the right to match any offer from any other team. His tender is based on the average of the top 10 players at his position. Notice this is 10 players average versus the 5 players in the other two tags. For Cousins, comes to about $28M (doesn't get the 144% bump) but do ya think Kirk would even consider a Redskins counteroffer if they used this type of tag? Pretty doubtful as he didn't respond to last years contract offer. If Washington doesn't match the offer then Kirk goes to the new team and the Redskins get nothing in compensation except the compensatory draft pick in 2019.

You don't use this tag on high end players and I don't see why so many people are enamored with it just to (extremely doubtful) save a few bucks on his 2018 salary and risk getting nothing more than a comp pick for Cousins. Unless you don't think he'll get a better offer than 1 year/$28M. Use the non-exclusive franchise tag if your willing to let him walk not the transition.

All tags - The team could trade him provided he has signed his tender or signed a contract. The team can rescind the tag, provided the player hasn't signed his tender, then the player becomes a UFA immediately. This was the way the Josh Norman & Carolina tag went. The player can refuse to sign the tag in which case he becomes a UFA in 2019 after sitting out the entire 2018 season. He would have up to 12 Nov to change his mind and sign the tender. No, he doesn't get the entire tag number if he signs during the season. That number is pro-rated over the games left in the season.

All tagged players dates - Tags must be declared by the team between 20 Feb thru 6 Mar. Team has until July 16th to work out a long-term deal.

Majority of free agents (includes Cousins) - Jan 1, 2018, the team may begin signing their own Free Agents players. Teams may contact the agents of UFAs on other teams between 12 Mar thru 14 Mar. Free agency, trading period & the 2018 season begins on the 14th of March.

Short, short version. Exclusive tag, 1 year/$35M tender, 100% guaranteed at signing. Team is on the hook for this much unless he signs a LTD. Non-exclusive tag, 1 yr/$35M tender, 100% guaranteed at signing. Team is on the hook for this unless he signs a contract with Washington or any other team.

I think it's pretty reasonable to expect he'll get some kind of offer under the non-exclusive tag from some other team that he'd find better than the tender so not worried about Washington getting stuck for 1 yr/$35M. If he won't negotiate reasonable offers from other teams this year and takes the 1 year tender instead that probably sends a bad message across the league for 2019 as far as his willingness to negotiate.

The trouble with using the non-exclusive tag and waiting things out is that if Kirk does end up departing the Redskins are going to have to go deep into the offseason to sort out what the QB position on this team is going to look like for 2018 and beyond.

Knowing how McCartney and Cousins have handled this so far they are going to bide their time and take as much time as possible to get the best deal.

A secondary bonus for them is holding up the Redskins' ability to move forward in time for free agency and potentially the April draft.

Bulldog's Twin said:

The trouble with using the non-exclusive tag and waiting things out is that if Kirk does end up departing the Redskins are going to have to go deep into the offseason to sort out what the QB position on this team is going to look like for 2018 and beyond.

Knowing how McCartney and Cousins have handled this so far they are going to bide their time and take as much time as possible to get the best deal.

A secondary bonus for them is holding up the Redskins' ability to move forward in time for free agency and potentially the April draft.

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But the Skins could go ahead and draft a QB in April. A drafted QB won't cost much (relatively) over his first 4 years cap wise. Nothing says he has to start. Really, if Kirk has something to fear from an unproven rookie taking his job he's not worth $35M @ year.