A Burgundy and Gold Obsession
Game 12 - Philly. No biggie. Just a season in the balance ...

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  1. #1

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    Helmet A "Reasonable" Contract for Kirk Cousins ...

    From what I've seen, by and large the BGO membership seems to favor re-signing Kirk Cousins to a "reasonable" long-term contract. It's a sentiment that seems simple enough at first blush, but gets a little fuzzy when applying actual numbers. So, assuming Cousins does eventually sign a long-term deal in 2017 (here or elsewhere if traded), it will be interesting to see how our notions of a reasonable contract here in March stack up against what actually gets signed.

    Be as detailed or as vague as you like ... I'm just really curious to see where one fan's reasonable becomes another's aw hell nah.

    You game?

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    Personally, I think if the Redskins do manage to ink Kirk, the contract is going to reflect far more what market value is, for a starting NFL QB in his prime, than what most objective observers would see as his "worth" measured against other QB's and existing contracts around the league. I think to sign him, it's going to take something along these lines:

    $130 million total over 5 years (plus option year)
    $90 million guaranteed
    $50 million at signing (bonus plus 2017 salary)
    $26 million average salary

    That's modestly higher than what Andrew Luck signed with the Colts last year, and to me that's the baseline that Kirk and his agent will expect, and will get, if not here then elsewhere.

    For the record, I choke on the numbers a bit too, because the idea of making Kirk Cousins the highest-paid player in NFL history at this point in his career just boggles the objective mind. But it's not about that ... it's about market value. If we DO end up paying the man that much, I will take solace in the likelihood that in 2-3 years that contract will likely look quaint compared to whatever a top FA QB to hit the market will get. Add to that the rising cap projections, and that the Redskins at least seem these days to have a decent handle on their cap situation, and, well ... there you go.

    I think I could sleep at night.

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  2. #2
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    I don't personally care what he gets paid. Not my money and the cap will only increase in the future. I also don't care if he shits the bed and makes a lot of money, other than the fact that it means the team will never win if he chokes in big moments... which is worth infinitely more than his gaudy stats.

    I guess what I'm saying is I'm just tired and wish this would all finish one way or another. I know it's only football, but still...

    Nick
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  3. #3

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    $20 million a year for 5 years with postseason incentives that could take it to $25 million
    $60 million guaranteed
    $30 million at signing
    Escapable after 2 years if #8 fails to step up.

    And even that's too damn much.

    If he wants more, trade him and go with Colt.
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  4. #4

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    As fans it’s hard not to look at the cap money that the Skins have available from year to year and think about it as “our money”. I’m trying my hardest to get away from that line of thinking. Not only is it not “our money”, over the past several years the team hasn’t spent all of the money that was available to spend under the cap. Not even close. I didn’t get a kickback check for that.

    So in the real world spending money on Kirk doesn’t mean squat to you or me. 21 or 25 million a year, what does it matter? It only starts to matter to me really if it prevents us from signing or retaining talent and I can’t see how that enters the picture, at least not yet.

    If resigning Jackson was really a team priority would signing Kirk to a big deal prevent that? I seriously doubt it. The same can be said for any free agent defenders we may target. There will be a lot of factors that come into play about them signing here but money isn’t likely to be the biggest. Most guys want to win and would take less to be in a good situation.

    The focus in the past several years has been to get younger and to build through the draft. I think most of us agree that that’s the best way to build a team IF you can draft well. That allows us a lot of latitude to spend money on a high cost free agent here or there but the core of your team remains young and more importantly cheap. We tried the other way with lots of free agents and it blew up in our face time and time again.

    The one factor that has been missing from our teams for the last 20 years or more has been stability at QB. It’s cost us dearly. Paying a competent QB is simply the price of doing business in the NFL. Otherwise you simply aren’t relevant. It’s the one draft exception. There aren’t 32 good QBs in the NFL today and there may not be any who wind up as starters from the draft class this year. That’s why if we were to decide to release him today there would be a bidding war that would break out almost right away between several teams, not just the 49ers. Don’t doubt me on that.

    We’re going to pay the guy. The sooner we bite the bullet the better off all parties will be.
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  5. #5
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    To me the offer last year or the $20 million this year is more than adequate, but I am looking at the amount from the eyes of an average American trying to earn a living. We won't see this kind of money. He will make market value or a little above. It is what it is.

    I say $22 million over 5 years, with last 2 voidable or escape clauses. My guess is guaranteed money around $80-90 million. Not bad days work for him and his family.
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    His agent has already indicated that he considers the franchise tag salary as 'setting the bar'. Like it or not, I believe it'll take $24 million to sign him.

    My prediction is $24.5 million/year for 4 years, 60 mill guaranteed, half of it paid at time of signing. Sadly that may be wishful thinking.


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  7. #7

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    So some SF 'insiders' making noise on Twitter that a deal for Cousins with the 49ers is in the works and all but a 'done deal'. If this turns out to be the case (and obviously that's a big 'if'), won't the exclusive tag have proven to be a major miscalculation for the Skins as going the non-exclusive route would've required 2 firsts in compensation? Do I have my facts right?

    In other words, the exclusive tag only makes sense if you are highly confident you get a deal done - correct?

    So if we discover that Cousins never wanted a LTD here and won't sign one, that will be a huge blow. I know - a lot of 'ifs' but it is worrisome...

    Of course, that's all predicated on us getting some paltry deal for him, such as swapping first rounders this year, with another pick thrown in ...
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  8. #8
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    From reading couple things I believe he is already checked out. Around draft day a trade will be announced with SF. They have the cap space to give him crazy money.

    Plus, I read earlier someone asked a player on the Redskins about McCoy. The player responded McCoy is the man. To me this tells me they may know KC is gone and getting behind McCoy.
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  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boone View Post
    So some SF 'insiders' making noise on Twitter that a deal for Cousins with the 49ers is in the works and all but a 'done deal'. If this turns out to be the case (and obviously that's a big 'if'), won't the exclusive tag have proven to be a major miscalculation for the Skins as going the non-exclusive route would've required 2 firsts in compensation? Do I have my facts right?

    In other words, the exclusive tag only makes sense if you are highly confident you get a deal done - correct?

    So if we discover that Cousins never wanted a LTD here and won't sign one, that will be a huge blow. I know - a lot of 'ifs' but it is worrisome...

    Of course, that's all predicated on us getting some paltry deal for him, such as swapping first rounders this year, with another pick thrown in ...
    With the exclusive tag, the Redskins are still the only negotiating partner. They would be making the choices on what they would get no matter what.

    Non-exclusive, Kirk can negotiate with others, and if they make an offer, we can match that offer and he stays with us, or not match it and they give us 2 1st rounders. Unless they decide to trade him after negotiating with the other team, at which point they could sign him to a new deal, then trade him for whatever compensation they like, tag be damned.

    Exclusive just means he can't drum up anything with other teams at all without it being tampering. Only the Redskins can negotiate anything with him or anybody else.

    Previous non-exclusive tag players have been traded for less than 2 1sts.
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  10. #10

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    If we are in fact talking deal with SF, the team finally has the only real leverage they've had to date. If they don't like what SF offers, they can go Nancy Reagan on the deal and "force" Kirk to either not sign the tag and sit out, or play a year under the tag and risk injury, fall-off performance or a different FA landscape next season when other QB's hit the market.

    Gonna be a long few weeks.
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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by riggins44 View Post
    Plus, I read earlier someone asked a player on the Redskins about McCoy. The player responded McCoy is the man. To me this tells me they may know KC is gone and getting behind McCoy.
    I find it hard to believe that all the players know the negotiating status of Cousins, considering how tight-lipped the FO has been, and also considering that if the players were privy to it, I'd fully expect some sort of leak to make its way out.
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  12. #12
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    "I LIKE THAT" Kirk has put up 2 record breaking back to back seasons, but with us losing both 1000 yard starting WR's in FA most likely... will the INTs increase AGAIN with new starters (being out of sink) with Cousins other than Crowder?

    Personally I hate that I am saying this, but I say trade him hopefully to SF... I seriously doubt we'd be lucky enough to land the 2nd pick in the 1st round, but for their 2nd round, 4th round pick and possibly a player other than Kap included. I'd jump on it and spend the money and draft picks on filling needs elsewhere (OL, DL, DBs)

    I think Colt McCoy could come in and probably shock us all. He's bound to know the playbook like the back of his hand and ready for another shot. I still love that damn good game in Dallas when he got us the win!
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boone View Post
    So some SF 'insiders' making noise on Twitter that a deal for Cousins with the 49ers is in the works and all but a 'done deal'. If this turns out to be the case (and obviously that's a big 'if'), won't the exclusive tag have proven to be a major miscalculation for the Skins as going the non-exclusive route would've required 2 firsts in compensation? Do I have my facts right?

    In other words, the exclusive tag only makes sense if you are highly confident you get a deal done - correct?

    So if we discover that Cousins never wanted a LTD here and won't sign one, that will be a huge blow. I know - a lot of 'ifs' but it is worrisome...

    Of course, that's all predicated on us getting some paltry deal for him, such as swapping first rounders this year, with another pick thrown in ...
    As Shi no Tenshi suggests, I think the exclusive tag was the right choice. The non-exclusive tag would have allowed Kirk to negotiate with anyone he wanted and thereby gather proof that he "deserves" a larger contract with the Skins to resign long-term. And I think it's very unlikely a team would have been willing to give up two Firsts for him, so with either tag, we would have had to negotiate the compensation. This way, Kirk is more in the dark so has more incentive to sign long-term here for less; with the exclusive tag, we send Kirk (and the world) the apparent signal we want him here long-term, which (mildly) appeases Kirk and (mildly) drives up our apparent interest in him and thus the price to get him; and we have more control over trading partner(s)/parameters.
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  14. #14

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    If we can get a couple of solid draft picks for him then I think we let him go. Has he done well the last two years? Yes. Is he also, at the very least, part of the reason we failed in the stretch run last year? Yes.

    The man puts up great numbers but he is looking for Brady/Brees/Rogers money and he isn't those guys. Not yet at least. Could he be? Maybe. Maybe not.

    I doubt we can get 2 1st rounders for him but I'd take a 1st and a 3rd or 4th in a NY minute.
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    If Kirk Cousins leaves and we go with McCoy or some other idiocy, this team is done for at least the next five years unless we stumble upon another QB (which apparently happens about once every twenty years around here.)

    In my opinion, the only hope that this team can build on any amount of success we've had is to pay Cousins and hope he's the real deal. If he isn't we're screwed anyway, so we may as well take the plunge.

    If he wants $24 mil a year, pay him. Chalk it up as the cost of screwing around with his contract last year.
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  16. #16
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    I don't think money is the issue. He was #7 last year and at #4 this year. Comes to years and guarantees so if they want him past 2017 Washington will have to blink first, they won't tag him a third year leaving Kirk able to dictate terms today. $1ooM & 4 years or thereabouts wouldn't be unreasonable for both sides. How much will the Skins guarantee versus how much Cousins is willing to have guaranteed? Just might be the sticking point.

    Still 4 months to work out a deal and drop the tag so don't panic just yet. As far as any possible trade it wouldn't make much sense to take anything less than the equivalent of a non exclusive tag which is 2 first rounders.

    A recent article on how different tags are treated is at: How the NFL franchise tag works | NFL | Sporting News
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  17. #17
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    IMO, Cousins is done in Washington. After the events of the past couple of weeks I really don't see any way the team or the player pulls back from the ledge on this one and just spits and shakes hands.

    This has been drawn out over too long a period of time for an easy reconciliation to take place.

    For the organization, do you really want to move forward with a player who is definitely out of here in 2018 and is playing 2017 basically not trying to get hurt so he can cash in with Shanahan for the long-term in San Francisco?

    For the player, does Cousins really want to get on the field and tear an ACL on a quarterback scramble making the 110% play for a team and owner that has basically rejected him?

    It's untenable.

    There has to be a trade now. I think that is fairly clear.
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