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Week 6 - Indianapolis Colts

Blognosticator - Goaldeje

When I was approached and asked to write up one of these things, I thought, “all right, maybe I’ll get the Giants, Eagles or Cowboys!” Doesn’t matter what the records are, those games are always tight. If that fails, the Lions could be interesting this year, maybe the Texans? As long as I didn’t get the Colts. Who wants to prognosticate against the Colts?

Thanks, Neo. No, really.

Not sure how I pissed you off. Maybe just shoot me a pm next time, mmmm’k?

So I get to try to figure out what chance our beloved Redskins have against the greatest QB of our generation (yeah, I went there. Until Brady cuts his hair and stops looking like Justin Beiber, I don’t wanna hear it). Our Skins are coming off two inspired, gutty wins, and look like they could make a serious push for the playoffs. Some in the media have even begun to whisper that Mike Shanahan could be in line for Coach of the Year, and Donovan McNabb in the running for MVP. I heard that repeated this morning, and kept trying to rewind my car radio. No Tivo for the car yet, huh?

Slow down, folks. We beat a Philly team after we knocked their starting QB (you know, the guy they game-planned with all week) out, and then knocked off a Packers team during a game that made Bloodsport look like Kindergarten Cop (It’s not a … very good movie). We should be very happy with both wins, but not pin too much meaning to either. It’s a long race to the finish, and right now we have beaten the village idiot (Wade Phillips), the Village Moron (Andy Reid – exhibit clock management “skills” , your honor), and an injury-depleted, calcium deprived (apparently) Green Bay team.

Just sayin’.

So let’s look at the Colts. Played 5 games, at a very surprising 3-2 record right now, tied with the Jaguars, Titans and Texans for the lead in the AFCS. Weird. Anyway, they had an ugly loss to the Texans, followed by an ass-kicking of the Giants, then a beatdown (sorta) of the Donkeys, after which a pretty-looking loss to the Jaguars followed, and then finally on Sunday, they won an ugly game against the Chefs. Weird, right?

Are the mighty Colts coming back to earth? (over/under on how many times you hear this during the 2010 football season from the media is 250. Get your bets in before they change the line, quick! If betting were legal, of course)

Let’s look at some stats from their three wins:

Nearly 800 combined passing yards, with 6TD, 1 INT
258 rushing yards, 3 TD

Now let’s look at their two losses:

800 passing yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
102 rushing yards, 0 TD

Hmmm. First thing that jumps out to me is that Peyton Manning is good. Yeah, baby. That’s why you read these Blognostications, for insights like that! Anyway, 1600 passing yards so far? Wow. 11TD vs. 2 INT? Double Wow. Or Sham-Wow. Whatever works. QB envy? You betcha!

The other thing that jumps out is the rushing yardage. When they win, they average over 80 yards a game on the ground, and get in the endzone. When they lose? 50 yards a game, no trips to Addai’s happy place (not THAT happy place, you sickos).

Let’s look at how their opponents fare. In the Colts three wins, their opponents:

gained 793 yards passing, 3TD, 2 INT
280 rushing yards, 0 TD

In the Colts two losses, their opponents gained:

270 passing yards (total, not average), 3 TD, 1 INT
431 rushing yards, 5 TD.

At first blush, I was tempted to explain away the rushing yards in the losses due to Banana’s Foster (happy, Lanky?) going nuts in the first game of the season. But Mo-Jo tore through them two weeks ago to the tune of 130+ , TD.

Hmmm. Seeing a pattern here. I like this pattern, because I was screaming about it in chat during the Packers game. We need to run the ball. A lot. Commit to it. Let Torain carry 25-30 times, and have Keiland fill in with another 7-9 times. I watched the Colts-Texans game, and the interior of their defensive line wore down as the game went on. Foster gashed them in the second half, because they STAYED with the run. And on defense, you can’t just give Peyton yardage, but it seems to me he will get his. We need to control their running game, forcing Peyton to throw more. I know, seems backwards, but looking at the stats above, seems to be true.

So then, wrapping up. Stop celebrating, it hasn’t been that bad.

Bold Prediction: McNabb has a nice day with 250 and 1 TD, but Torain becomes the talk of the league with 140 and 2 TDs. Our D steps up and forces Manning to throw more than he wants to, which leads to a late INT to seal it for the Skins, 28-24. The other TD you ask? Shorty with the microchip on his shoulder.

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