OF: Week 4 Storylines: RG3, Haslett and Redskins Embattled Defense

Sept. 28, 2012


In Tampa Bay this week, where the Buccaneers are preparing to host the Washington Redskins on Sunday afternoon, the talk is about "containing RG3." As it should be. From the outside looking in, the most intriguing thing about the Redskins is their suddenly dangerous offense, led by dynamic rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III.

The phrase "highest scoring offense in the NFL" has a certain cachet, after all. It gets attention. It's also a legitimate concern to opposing teams. The Redskins are scoring a crisp 33 points per game, which projects out over the course of the season to 528 points. Clearly, preparing to play Washington had better involve crafting a plan designed to keep the hotshot rookie from "going off" and dominating Sunday night's Sportscenter highlights.

What the Bucs are not saying publicly, however, but what Redskins fans and observers know all too well they are probably thinking, is that to beat the Redskins these days what you really need to do is throw the damn ball. Like, throw it a lot. All day, all over. Deep, short, left, right, middle, whatever--just throw it.

Because the Redskins defense, statistically sound enough against the run (9th overall), has been performing so abysmally against the pass (31st) that the team is giving up 33.7 points per game. To put that number in perspective, the Redskins are on pace to set the all-time NFL record for points allowed (539) in a 16-game regular season. That infamous distinction currently belongs to the 1981 Baltimore Colts, who rolled over to the tune of 533.

So rather than reveling in the surprisingly prolific training-wheel phase of their young franchise quarterback's career, and enjoying realistic discussions about Washington competing for a playoff spot (rarely a realistic expectation behind a rookie quarterback), Redskins fans face each successive week more convinced that the defense is simply incapable of stopping anybody, or of holding any lead.

The Redskins face the first real crossroads game of 2012 on Sunday. With a win, they can finish the first quarter of the season 2-2, with both wins against NFC opponents. A 2-2 September would bring another few weeks of playoff relevance in a season that, in the long view, is more realistically the launching pad to a new era.

With a third consecutive loss, however, and a fall to 1-3 in the deeply competitive NFC East, the 2012 season almost certainly will become an extended test lab for 2013 and beyond. That would not be the end of the world, obviously--not in view of the dawning reality that this franchise fellow is the real deal--but still a huge disappointment given the unexpected early success of the offense.

At 1-2 the Redskins are on the edge. It didn't have to be that way. Consider...

CLICK HERE to read more

And that about sums it up now don't it?

Thanks brother. Nice work.

Yeah, pretty spot on, my friend.

Ritchie Petitbon, we miss you sir.

Just to throw a little extra petrol on the fire...and to bring up a question that's bothering me.

Our lowest point total in a game so far this season is the 28 we scored against the Rams.

These are the losses from last season that would have been wins had we been able to score 28 points in those games.

Sept. 26-Dallas Cowboys

Oct. 16-Philadelphia Eagles

Oct. 30-Buffalo Bills

Nov. 6-San Fransisco 49ers

Nov. 134-Miami Dolphins

Nov 20-Dallas Cowboys

Yup, serious offensive problems were the problem....then anyway.

As Om painfully pointed out, our defense after that began a slide that continues through last Sunday's loss to the Bengals.

Through the win over the Seahawks on Nov. 27th the Redskins had an average of 20.18 points per game scored by their opponents. I'm including the 33 put up by the Panthers even though it could be tossed as an outlier as Om did with the Giants win but Newton was doing that to everyone so what he did to us wasn't unusual relative to the rest of the league. If you want to leave that game out as an outlier then the average points/game against the Redskins through Nov.27 2011 drops to 17.18 making the contrast I'm going to bring up even more dramatic.

After the Seattle game the points/game against the Skins jumps to 33.75-leaving out the 10 point Giant score-30.75 if you feel like including it-the contrast is still a two TD increase in points/game scored against the Skins which is the basis of my question.

So far this season it's been slightly worse at 33.67 points/game.

The question in my mind-and because my memory simply isn't all that clear on the details is bugging me, does anyone have an idea of something notable happening after the win over the Seahawks on Nov. 27 that could contribute to an explanation of the suddenness and magnitude of the increase in terms of points allowed per game? Going from 20.18 (or 17.18 if you wish) to 33.75 allowed is a pretty dramatic increase. I'm tossing out the Giants game because we presented some kind of matchup problem for them or a mojo if you want to put it that way or they just had a sucky game prior to going on their "oh so similar to 2007" playoff run. (I like the "Jim Haslett's personal loofah" quip, BTW ).

What the hell happened?

Different teams, different times, different games, different players. I'm not as convinced that statistical comparison across time with so many variables at play (including arbitrary ones, like pure luck of the good and bad variety) is as legitimate and reliable method of assessment as we like to believe.

Every game is a microcosm of unique factors that will never be replicated in another game.

Is our defense really worse now than it was mid-season last year? Statistics scream yes. But if we could magically transport that exact same defense to our games the past several weeks, would it have performed differently? I don't know. I think it's impossible to know.

Boone said:

Different teams, different times, different games, different players. I'm not as convinced that statistical comparison across time with so many variables at play (including arbitrary ones, like pure luck of the good and bad variety) is as legitimate and reliable method of assessment as we like to believe.

Every game is a microcosm of unique factors that will never be replicated in another game.

Is our defense really worse now than it was mid-season last year? Statistics scream yes. But if we could magically transport that exact same defense to our games the past several weeks, would it have performed differently? I don't know. I think it's impossible to know.

Click to expand...

Sorry,Boone, but I must disagree-a two td increase in points allowed over a span of even four games is a strong indicator of a change having occurred. These games and the numbers indicating hows teams performed are not isolated occurrences totally distinct and non-comparable. Changes in the measurables are useful indicators of some combination of factors changing in a team's performance. If what you're searching for is certainty it doesn't exist-but, and this is a very important but, lack of certainty does not imply inability to assess probabilities nor allow one to dismiss what can be estimated through calculation as inapplicable.

I acknowledged that no doubt a statistical viewpoint is going to lead one to the conclusion that this current defense is much worse than where we were a year ago. You said that the stats are 'a strong indicator of a change having occurred'. I'm just saying that included in those changes are:

1) the teams we've played
2) the coaches we've coached against
2) the individual player matchups we've encountered
3) etc..etc...etc...

I'm not 'dismissing' the data - the data is really all we have to go by other than subjective feelings. But a review of points scored for and against may be less illuminating than we'd typically like to believe.

Boone said:

I acknowledged that no doubt a statistical viewpoint is going to lead one to the conclusion that this current defense is much worse than where we were a year ago. You said that the stats are 'a strong indicator of a change having occurred'. I'm just saying that included in those changes are:

1) the teams we've played
2) the coaches we've coached against
2) the individual player matchups we've encountered
3) etc..etc...etc...

I'm not 'dismissing' the data - the data is really all we have to go by other than subjective feelings. But a review of points scored for and against may be less illuminating than we'd typically like to believe.

Click to expand...

You are exactly right in your listed points-the numbers indicate there was "something" different-what it was that was different is another question entirely. My point is that the numbers indicate that for the stretch after the Seattle game some as yet unknown factors, were operating that caused a consistent reduction in the ability of the defense to hold down opponents scoring compared to the previous games.

Unless, of course, and this is a perfectly plausible hypothesis given the data, the New York Jets on Dec 4th, New England Patriots on December 11th, Minnesota Vikings on Dec 24th, and Philadelphia Eagles on Jan. 1st were the best four point producing offences we faced all last season.

The defense just isn't that good. The stats are not lying in this instance and yes, it has a lot to do with Haz and his schemes too. I'm ready to find a very solid, youthful defensive coordinator in the college ranks and move forward with him. There are a few who could come in and shake things up for the positive/better.

I have another bad feeling about this game and with a record of 1-3, it will be time to "experiment" for the 2013 season. I'm hoping for 2-2, but this team SHOULD be 4-0 after Sunday. Haz simply stinks as a coach - HC, DC, ACDC, XYZ, or whatever - he simply stinks.

Thanks for the blog Om - great as always.

BB, here's my question phrased somewhat differently.

Haz was the DC for all of last season. What was different after the Seattle game? Was it an injured player(s)? Did he start doing something differently? Did we indeed run into a string of offenses suddenly operating at their peak? A combination of some of those and other unknown factors?

Have we in the first three games this season run into two consecutive teams on enough of an upswing in their offenses, the Bengals and Rams, to explain the difference in opponents scoring?

I'm just curious about what seems to be an anomalous change in opponents scoring ability that occurred while we had the same DC.

he runs unsound schemes, its really that simple, once teams get enough film on him, his tendencies are obvious and smart coaches will own him look at reid, we did ok against the fecals our first game against them with haslett, and then got 60 dropped on us, once teams get some film on him , its over. he doesnt cater to his players strengths very well and his love of "disguised" coverages puts our guys in bad spots.