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So, here's my official 1st Mock of the year. I've done a bunch of simulations so far on both Fanspeak and The Draft Network but this will be my official 1st mock of the 2019 draft season for Same As It Ever Was and BGObsession.
I'm basing today's mock off a conversation I had with some Redskins fans and fellow draftniks revolving around Josh Rosen. The rumor is that the Cardinals want a 1st round pick for Rosen and no team is willing to give up said pick despite many NFL experts are suggesting that this is the way to go. The reason for this is that everyone knows that if Rosen is available, it is because he is being replaced by Kyler Murray and that means simply that Rosen's value in a trade significantly depreciates. Some fans and media are suggesting a way to make this trade happen is by having the Redskins offer pick #15 in exchange for The Cardinals 2nd round pick, #33 overall and Josh Rosen.
Since this is just a hypothetical scenario, let's make it real interesting. The Redskins would like to get back their 4th round pick that they traded to Green Bay for Ha Ha Clinton-Dix during the 2018 season, so let's kill two birds with one stone as the saying goes.
Earlier today, I came up with a trade on Twitter which would send the Redskins 1st and 5th round picks to the Cardinals for their 2nd, 4th and Josh Rosen. But after realizing I made a minor math error, I decided to go with a slightly better option which would make the trade more favorable for Arizona and thus more likely to happen.
Instead of having the Cardinals give up their 4th round pick, I have the Redskins and Cardinals swap their 5th round picks. Thus the Redskins gets the equivalent of a very late 4th round pick without the Cardinals losing too much in the trade.
So here's the trade (see below). Then I will do the math to show how much value the Cardinals are getting for Rosen using a classic Trade Value Chart.
Cardinals get:
#15 (1st)
#15 3 (5th)
Redskins get:
#33 (2nd)
#139 (5th)
QB, Josh Rosen
The Math
#15 (1050 pts) + #15 3 (29.8 pts) = #33 (580 pts) + #139 (36 pts) + Josh Rosen (X)
1079.8 = 616 + X
463.8 = X
Why Make This So Confusing?
In the end Josh Rosen is given the value of a 2nd mid-round pick. In comparison, the Redskins pick at #46 in the 2nd round and the value of that pick is 440 points. So the Cardinals are getting a bit more value for Rosen than they would get had they taken just the #46 pick.
I know you're probably thinking: "So why did you make this so complicated? Wouldn't it be just as simple for the Redskins to just give up pick #46 ?"
Well, the NFL is complicated and teams are always trying to one up each other so they look better in a trade.
This trade makes the Cardinals look much better than they would by just accepting a 2nd rounder from the 'Skins. By getting #15 the Cardinals can address a key need by drafting offensive line help to protect Kyler Murray or even target their defensive line with possibly Ed Oliver.
For the Redskins, they get a young QB on a cheap contract for the next 3 years (and a 5th year option) and get to still have four draft picks in the top 100 selections. Also, they can try to grab talent earlier than expected on day three of the draft without losing their second 5th round pick or any other picks in the process. A potential franchise QB and 9 draft picks that can build the offense and fill a few holes on defense would signal a success for the Redskins.
Meaningless Mock Draft 1.0
Now comes the fun part and see what I think the Redskins will do with those picks. If you like the mock, great and if you don't ...... well that's fine as well. This is the Meaningless Mock and no matter what happens here it (probably) won't matter come draft day.#33 WR, AJ Brown, Ole Miss
This was a tough call as I had a lot of WR prospects that I like to choose from, but I went with the board based on the Fanspeak mock I was using. Brown is not a known deep threat, but he has good hands, is excellent in a WC style scheme for short and intermediate passes and likes to gain YAC. Also a good blocker and that will be key for the 'Skins to have any success this year is to have a solid run game.
#46 TE, Irv Smith, Alabama
And....we got another player from Alabama. Jay Gruden is desperate to find a TE who can be a dual threat as a blocker and a pass catcher. Irv Smith can do this. Hopefully this will allow Jordan Reed to be used more in the slot to take advantages of mismatches and not have to block as much.
#76 S, Darnell Savage, Maryland
The Redskins address the safety spot here with Savage. He should compete for the starting spot from day one. Savage's speed will allow the Redskins to play single high safety and allow Landon Collins to stay closer to the box for maximal damage. Also should be able to help the team in Cover-3 which seems to be the preferred coverage of choice in many passing downs.
#96 C/G, Elgton Jenkins, Mississippi St.
While Jenkins has played C for the past two seasons, he has played both tackle positions and LG as a backup at Mississippi St. With the injury history of the 'Skins OL, a player who can possibly play all five positions on the line would be critically important.
#139 WR, Hunter Renfrow, Clemson
Trey Quinn is not a guaranteed option in the slot with 2 IR stints last year. Renfrow is another player who can provide solid hands and YAC for a team that hasn't been as much about big plays but more on grinding out long drives.
#173 EDGE, Shareef Miller, Penn St.
The Redskins need more speed and pass rush. Miller can provide help in this category as he develops into a total OLB/DE.
#206 RB, Bryce Love, Stanford
Love may be a PUP project as he's recovering from an ACL. The idea is to have him be ready to compete for the 2020 roster and complement Guice, Thompson and the rest of the RB corp. Could be a steal if he recovers and has time to develop.
#227 ILB, Joe Giles-Harris, Duke
Special teams players who could develop to be a solid two down player and back up.
#253 CB, Jordan Brown, South Dakota St.
Developmental press man corner with good size and speed who may be able to push for a roster spot on the final 53.
I'm pretty happy with this draft. It gives three potential play makers to help make the offense stronger and give Rosen, Kennum or McCoy more options to target. Savage was a huge pickup to bolster the secondary and Jenkins provides the team a potential starting LG or C and a player who can move to another position if an injury occurs. Everything else is depth but even then, I think I found some value in the day three picks.
Let me know what you think about the draft and feel free to drop me a line here on the blog or @HmBrewer72 on Twitter.
