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Redskins Recon

The Offseason-The First Five Teams In The Draft

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The top five draft picks. The teams that pick ahead of the Redskins. The place where Luck, Griffin, Kalil, and Blackmon-the "super-hot" properties reside. The place where the teams desperate for their "franchise QB or whatever" will try to trade up to and the teams who might be willing to sell their slot for a heavy-duty load of extra draft picks live. The Colts, Rams, Vikings, Browns and Bucs have the top five picks-but do their fans want to keep them?

And where do the Redskins, sitting at #6, fit into their plans?

Let's start with the Colts. Standard wisdom states that Andrew Luck going to the Colts is about as done a deal as you'll see in this draft.

A lot of Colts fans would disagree.

Colts fans are divided about their QB situation and how to treat it. And even who to treat it with. And Luck isn't a lock with everybody. They know the Colts have other team problems that need addressing. The one possibility nobody's mentioning, however, is Peyton retiring.

Indianapolis-Colts-Fan
trade the first pick for several picks for the next 3 years. to a team who needs a QB bad. But not a team who will become a contender with the right QB.

One in somehwat building mode. I'm sure theres just that team willing to make a trade. This way, if Peyton is healthy we can draft Peytons successor either next year or the year after. Our team will be much more built by then and hopefully we will have a couple more rings.

Quantum88
There is no way the Colts are going to take a 28 million dollar cap hit that could hamper resigning other people. If we pay the bonus, Manning will play as a Colt. If he is not going to play as a Colt, we will let him walk. People do not seem to understand, if you pay him the bonus and trade him, the bonus hits your cap and only the annual salary goes with him to the next team. We can not afford a 28 million cap hit and not have a player on the roster who is a true super star.

CantBeStopped
So your gonna ship off one of the greatest football players of all time for a guy that has never thrown a single pass in the nfl. A guy that has probably the best o line and run game in the ncaa and your gonna expect him to come here with this makeshift oline and average at best run game?

Pancake Block
We will take Luck. Then we need to figure out a way to get Justin Blackmon, too. That's 2/3rds of the way to getting the triplets like Dallas had in the early 90s. Then we need an RB and finally fix our O-line. Offense complete.

esmort
I am on the fence whether I would prefer to draft Luck with the #1 pick or trade it for multiple picks. Which way I lean depends on the day ... but here is my main concern with the trade down scenario:

The most prevalent argument from advocates for the trade down scenario suggest that we will get multiple picks that will allow us to put the needed pieces in place for Peyton to make a couple Super Bowl runs and then draft peytons replacement in a year or 2. The problem I see with this is that we when it comes time to draft the replacement there is a good chance we will not be drafting high enough to get the elite QB ... If this is the case then we will just have to turn around and give a "boatload of picks" to the team who does have that pick. In this scenario we are not really getting extra picks this year as much as we are borrowing those picks from our future draft that we will have to pay back to acquire that elite QB in a couple years.

So if we trade down are we really gaining as much as it appears or is it just a loan that we will have to pay back (maybe with "interest") in a couple years?

doogansquest
...The elite (re: hyped) pick doesn't mean anything until that player proves it on Sundays.

We could load up our team all over the field, take another talented QB in one of the next two drafts, and still be set up for the next decade, with a team that would easily be more well-rounded.

(NOTE: The "we have other picks" argument is invalid. We wouldn't get nearly the value from those other picks as we would if we were to add 3-6 more in the first two rounds. Luck certainly won't be worth that value on the bench.)
The Redskins did rate an occasional mention.

Blue Stallion
Trading the #1 pick and drafting RGIII is an attractive idea, but I don't think it's logistically feasible. There are at least four teams that desperately need a good QB (Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, Washington), and they will probably all try to move up into the top three picks to get either Luck or RGIII. The Rams and Vikings don't need another QB and would trade the #2 or #3 pick in a heartbeat if the offer was lucrative enough. Even if the Colts trade down into Cleveland's #4 pick, both Luck and RGIII will be gone by the 3rd pick. The Colts could use the #4 pick to nab Kalil or Blackmon or trade down again and get a lesser-rated QB later the draft.
Which brings us to the Rams sitting on the #2 pick. Their fans, it turns out, are heavy duty wheeler-dealers and they're looking at the Redskins as a target-for some interesting reasons.

When RG3 announced he was officially heading for the draft, a lot of St. Louis Rams fans started salivating. As in a thread titled "Music to Rams fans ears: RGIII tells coach he's leaving for NFL Draft."

THOLTFAN81
Now we got some options
fliptalianstallion
Okay I hope by options, you mean trading down where we can hold him hostage for those who want him.
Nick
Make sure the phone lines are open and let's see who calls.
Most Rams fans are split between two options-Blackmon and trading down for more picks-and that's where the Redskins come in. A goodly number of Rams fans want to use the Redskins as pressure to try to get one of Cleveland's two first round picks.

The most interesting thing in all this to me is what they think the Redskins would be willing to give up to grab the #2 pick in a competition with the Browns.

U gotRam Right
Its an awesome game of chicken if Flynn or Manning are not in Washington plus RG3 has to do his part too but I think its do able only if Washington doesn't have a QB in place by draft time! Washington can provide can the only real pressure to make Cleveland blink!
RainRam
That's how I see it.

And for everyone that says, "Cleveland won't give up that much to move up two spots." It's not that they're trading with us, in so much as they are trading against another team, quite specifically, Washington.

Washington I'm sure would give us this year's first, next year's first, and some 2nds or 3rds thrown in.

So we can contact Cleveland and say, "Hey, Washington is giving us this much, can you match or beat that?" (The benefit to Cleveland is they are only compromising this year's draft. Unlike what Washington would be doing or what Atlanta did last/this year.)

Cleveland: No thanks, we're not giving that much up.

Us: Okay, Washington can have RGIII. Hope Colt McCoy works out for you guys this year.


**I don't understand how some people see it as being so far-fetched that they give up a mid-late 1st and an early 2nd.
Rich_1964
The Browns don't have to give up both their #1 picks this year to beat Washington's offer if only based on draft picks. Cleveland's Top #1 And #2 are still higher, thus in my opinion, would be a better offer. Why would the Rams accept a lessor offer from another team? They'd look like fools.

The only way Washington or a lower team could top Cleveland's picks, and I'm only counting one first round pick this year, is to include established players
U gotRamright
Rich if I understand u correctly your saying we swap 1st round picks giving us the 4th picks & pick up there 2nd round pick also. That would be the best offer that Cleveland has to give!

If that's what you mean I'm sorry I think Washington can beat that even if its a 2013 draft pick included, its early I get that but I find it hard to believe Washington/Shanahan will go into draft day with his starting QB as Rex Grossman & he doesn't do whatever it takes to try to get the best QB available when he only had to jump 1 team.

My point is this if Cleveland best & final offer is a swap of first round picks & they second round pick, I think if Daniel Synder & Shannanhan like RG3 they will easily beat that offer by Cleveland even if it requires 2013 picks! Will Cleveland blink idk but if they do there go a package giving they 2 1st round picks! I know a lot of if's but I think possible if's
RainRam
More than just 1st round picks are in play.

If Washington offered their 1st round picks in 2012 and 2013, AND their 2nd round picks in 2012 and 2013....or something along those lines.

Cleveland will have to pony up if they want Griffin.

Bottom line is it will take 2 first round picks and a little more for our pick. I would be willing to bet we get at least that offer from Washington. Now if Cleveland wants to look ahead to 2013, fine...but somehow, we have to come away with two first rounders and change.

Heck...Atlanta gave up two 1st rounders, one 2nd and two 4th rounders for the 2nd best WR in the draft last year at the #6 slot.

There's no way we don't get a couple firsts and a little more.
Memphis Ram
Actually, the results of the Julio Jones trade thus far may be what may stop a team from making such a foolish trade. IMO, the new CBA may have teams more willing to move up. But, not to the point where a team selecting in the top 5 is going to give up two 1st rounders and a second rounder in the same draft class to move up 2 spots.

Discount RGIII going as high as #2? Not me. I'm just one that not banking on it like many others that I've read.
Ramdog01
But we wont get both #1's...they'd be insane to do that. RG3 is not that franchise. Besides, Cleveland would be wise to stay with McCoy and play small ball with Murmers offense. RG3 is not the type of QB they need. Assuming they keep heading that direction, then Trent Richardson would be the best pick for them.

So the next opportunity to trade down would be Washington. And if one would safely assume that Minnesota is satisfied with Ponder and goes Kalil to buy him more time, Tampa Bay is satisfied with Josh Freeman and selects Morris Claiborne to replace the aging Ronde Barber, and Cleveland drafts Richardson because Peyton Hillis is an overrated chump....then wouldnt RG3 be there for Washington at #6?

I say yes.

Vikings fans are pretty much set on Kalil at #3 but there were a few who mentioned other possible scenarios. with the Redskins in the mix of course.

midgensa
If Kalil is not there, we better not take offensive line there. I have no problem with taking Claiborne or Blackmon at No. 3. But outside of that, the pick should be traded because there is nobody there worthy of the No. 3 pick. RGIII is DEFINITELY going to go to Cleveland at No. 4 ... so some teams should be angling to get our No. 3 off of us and make him their QB of the future. If the Redskins are in love with Griffin, then package some picks with them and move back.

Personally ... I am happy with Luck, Blackmon, Claiborne or Kalil at No. 3 and we obviously will have a shot at at least two of them. But I also would not mind trading back. If we swap with the Skins so they can get RGIII at No. 3. Then we would pick No. 6 and maybe have a shot at one of those four guys falling there.

And those Browns fans? Well if they read those Rams fan posts they'd say "Meh, we're good" No mention of a trade up or down in any forum I visited.

None.

Of course what Heckert/Schurmer are actually going to do is another matter but the fans seem perfectly happy sitting on the two 1st round picks and their other "gifts" from Atlanta last year-they're not all that unhappy with McCoy either. They're more interested in giving him more tools to work with. I can't say I blame them.

Oh, the Tampa Bay Bucs? They're too busy discussing the coaching situation to have much to say about the draft at all...yet.

In the second half of this pick-trade recon we'll look at the teams picking 7 through 12-including the most QB desperate fans I've seen yet.
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