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Blognostications

2011 - Week 13 v NY Jets

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Blognosticator - Lanky Livingston

Hi, I'm poster Lanky Livingston. You might remember me from such Blognostications as 2010, Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles! I’m here today to predict the final score of the Jets at Redskins game this Sunday! Stay tuned…

Yes, that was me. The guy who predicted a 3-point win (31-28 to be exact) over the Eagles, a couple days before the Mike Vick Massacre. You may have blacked out the memory from the Redskins center of your brain, but I'll remind you: Vick threw for 333 yards & 4TDs, and added 80 yards on the ground and 2 more TDs. One of the greatest single-efforts in the history of the NFL, and the greatest fantasy football performance of all time (conversely probably the worst Blognostication performance of all time). You might think a misstep like that would keep a guy from Blognosticating again, but you would be wrong! Hey, I can’t do any worse, can I? Here I am, yet again, to take a stab at the New Jersey Jets game, and the battle of Sexy Rexy-ies. A game some think we should lose – as in, lay down and let the Jets win.

As a fanbase, the current debate in Redskins nation right now is whether or not the team should win games. I will be the first to admit – I was on the “Suck for Luck” bandwagon – however with the Redskins strong start and the Colts sitting at 0-12 (with their sights reportedly deadlocked on the Stanford QB), I dismissed it as a possibility. Realistically, the Redskins are looking at picking somewhere between 4th and 10th, with position not mattering too much (Shanahan will not hesitate to move up a few spots to grab the QB he wants). Its far too distant in the future to predict the draft order in any case, meaning the Redskins should “just win, baby!” As we all know, drafting is far from an exact science; the benefits from winning games far outweigh the possibility of a couple draft slots, in my opinion.

So, what do you want first: the good news or the bad news? I’ll go ahead and give you the good news first…Redskins fans need some good news.

The good news: the 6-5 Jets are definitely a disappointment. Predicted to win the AFC East and challenge for a superbowl, they are a game out of the final Wild Card spot, and behind Denver at 8th overall in the AFC. The Jets defense is still very good, the 8th best in the league in total yards, with Darrelle Revis anchoring the 7th best pass defense. They can be run on, however, as their D gives up 114 yards a game on the ground (16th overall). Their 20 takeaways are 12th best, and most importantly they get off the field on 3rd down – only 3 teams have a better 3rd down percentage than the Jets’ 31.5. However this team suffers from what I like to call “Lackofoffenseyitis.” Yes, that is the technical term. Redskins fans should be very familiar with this disease, as the burgundy & gold faithful have had to suffer through it for 2 decades now. Mark Sanchez is 15th overall in passing yards, and only completing 56% of his passes while leading the Jets to the 21st ranked pass offense. The Jets rushing offense is even worse, ranking 24th in the league and averaging only 1.4 more yards per game than the Colts. The Jets offense loves to give the ball away also; only 4 teams have given the ball away more.

Now for the bad news: for as bad as the Jets offense has been, the Redskins offense has been worse. We have the 31st ranked rushing attack (a solid 14 yards per game LESS than the Colts), and are one of the four teams who give the ball away more than the Jets do (while our D’s lowly 14 takeaways make our differential much worse, -11 to -2). Yes, Redskins fans, the Jets may suffer from Lackofoffenseyitis, but the Redskins coined the term. Now, while I think 4 games (3 starts) of John Beck definitely brought the offensive numbers way down, Rex doesn’t exactly make it much better. At least the games are fun to watch again with the Sex Cannon at the helm – there is the potential of a deep TD pass every once in awhile.

Jets O vs. Redskins D – the Skins should have some momentum after the W against Seattle. They will need to take advantage of the Jets propensity to turn the ball over, and give the Redskins offense some short fields. The Jets seem to have forgotten they re-signed big-play receiver Santonio Holmes, and do a good job of taking him out of the game without any help from the D. This is good news for DeAngelo Hall, whose nickname this season should be “toast.” Plaxico Burress has burned the Redskins before, but the big WR is not his former self. I fully expect the Jets rushing offense to exceed their ability, and gash the Redskins 3-4 like most teams have done this season. The key will be forcing some third downs, in which the Jets only convert 38%. The Redskins defense has only been able to stop 37% of opponents’ 3rd down attempts, however if its Mark Sanchez vs. the Redskins’ defense, I’ll bet against Sanchez every time. Not to mention, young Ryan Kerrigan is anxious to meet Mr. Sanchez in the backfield, many, many times. Edge: Redskins D.

Redskins O vs. Jets D – Revis should effectively shut down Santana Moss; which may effectively shut down the Redskins passing-offense. We all saw how much things opened up against Seattle with Moss back in the line-up; the Jets’ D has been so good against the pass, because receivers rarely make their way off of Revis Island. The way to beat Revis is the same way to beat any shutdown CB – with excellent route running and a pinpoint QB. If anyone runs great routes on the Skins, its Moss – and Grossman (despite all his faults) CAN be a pinpoint QB at times. Hopefully he can summon some of that good mojo this week (against Revis? Sigh…). The Skins will have to run the ball well on first and second down to get 3rd and medium/3rd and short – remember how the Jets are good on 3rd downs? The Skins are 23rd worst, converting only 35%. Edge: Jets D.

Special Teams: whether it’s the Redskins’ blocking or Gano’s kicking, the Skins have been pretty Alabama-esque on field goals this season. Gonna need Graham to make every attempt to have any hope of beating the Jets. The Jets have actually made fewer field goals than the Redskins – but not sure if that’s because their kicker stinks (remember Nick Folk?) or their offense doesn’t get very close to the Redzone. Folk has missed 4 field goals to Gano’s 9, but only one inside the 50 (compared to a million for Gano). Edge: Jets.

Prediction: this will be a turnover-filled, defensive battle. Grossman & Sanchez will battle to see who can give the ball away more, and the one who does will lose the game for his team. Unfortunately, I predict this will be Grossman, throwing 3 picks & fumbling once to Sanchez’s 2 picks and 1 fumble. Rex “Foot Fetish” Ryan wins the battle of Sexy Rexy-ies by a final count of 17-10, making the draft-position guys go crazy with glee. As for the rest of us – well, just be glad this one wasn’t settled by wet t-shirt contest.

Updated 12-01-11 at 12:55 AM by Blognostications

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