01-15-10, 09:32 PM #1
DC Landing Strip: Divisional Round Picks: Tony Romo Will Not Cry
So last week I had to endure reality that either the Cowboys or Eagles would win a playoff game. Now? All I want is for the Cowboys to get embarrassed. The problem is that I just don't see it happening.......
The Vikings played a soft schedule and were exposed at the end of the season (not that Giants game when they 'exposed' the G-Girls). As much as it pains me, I think the Cowboys are moving on, and we will not get to see Romo cry. Sure, the Vikings can win, and are even favored, but I'm thinking that I should just prepare myself for the happiness that will come from not having to hear about Brett Favre eating breakfast. Just like last week, this game will make me mad regardless of what happens.
As for the other games, they stoke a lot of bad feelings for DC. I still hate Norv Turner, so am rooting against the Chargers, but also hate Mark Sanchez because I want Snyderrato proven wrong that he was the right move. Just like the Cowgirls-Vikings, I lose either way.
I also hate watching the Cardinals have success with Russ Grimm there. I definitely am rooting for the guy, but in some twisted world think that he could be having the same type of success had we hired him. I also lost a lot of money last week picking the Packers thanks to Kurt Warner's deal with the devil. As for the Saints, I don't like them because the Skins almost beat them, and I somehow think that they show what the Skins could be.................I haven't slept a lot this week.
I am also not one of those fans who hates the Ravens and views them as a rival, but some strong success by our neighbors would also be tough to swallow. Now the Colts, well I have nothing. I like watching Peyton Manning play and act, check and check, I keep thinking Orakpo is the next Dwight Freeney, so also like watching him succeed, check, no bad ties to the Redskins, check again! I think I found a team to not hate!
On to the picks..........FO's 'locks of the week' are 10-14 with 1 'lock' this week, their 'reasonable' picks are 32-40, and their 'stay away' picks are 88-68. Please note that differences in total games picked is a result of us using slightly different spreads.
The standings (with pushes excluded):
Sports Guy: o-4 last week 133-120 overall (52.6%)
FO: 3-1 last week, 130-122 overall (51.6%)
DCLS: 2-2 last week, 114-124 overall (47.9%)
As usual, the FO picks are listed in order of confidence with home teams in CAPS.
- New York Jets +8 over SAN DIEGO - The surprise of the week? FO has the Jets straight-up! I hate going against the Bolts and going with Dirty Sanchez, but this is a lot of points and a great matchup for the Jets. FO has the Jets are their #7 team, and the Bolts as their #3, but let's not forget that the Jets have thee #1 pass defense in the league to counter the Bolts #1 passing offense, and run the ball well, which could cause problems for the Charger defense that is 25th in the league in run defense.
- Arizona +7 over NEW ORLEANS - First team to 50 wins! I know the Saints might be a sleeping giant, but FO notes that the Cards have actually been the better team recently by weighted numbers, with the Cards as the #8 team, and the Saints at #12. I should mention that the Cards got a little lucky last week, played a great game, and still have no defense going against an absolute offensive juggernaut.
- Baltimore +7 over INDIANAPOLIS - Unibrow wasn't great last week, but the Ravens were and that is a lot of points to pass-up for FO's #1 team. That said, I don't want to get too excited about 1 great game from the Ravens, and think Peyton makes every defense look bad. Flacco under pressure? I'll give the points, I think Indy is charging right to the Super Bowl and has to be the favorite.
- Dallas +3 over MINNESOTA - It kills me, but I'm buying the Cowboys and think the big secret of the NFL this year may be that the Vikings aren't particularly good. According to Aaron Schatz, aka football metrics Jesus, the Vikes are the worst team left in the playoffs and the Cowboys the 2nd best, but FO has the Vikings straight-up. Why? As Schatz discussed in his podcast with Sports Guy this week, he really doesn't fully understand, but the metrics favor the Vikings straight-up once the splits and matchups are input. That said, I still think the Cowboys are the pick, and will gladly take the points. On the bright side, I want both of these teams out of the playoffs with 'death to Favre-mania' being #2 on my remaining wishlist for the playoffs. Also, a Cowboys win means Wade Phillips probably keeps his job, which is good news for anyone playing the Cowboys, ever.
(Image courtesy of slog.thestranger.com)
01-15-10, 10:03 PM #2
They've got it halfway right. I see the Jets having a real chance to upset the Bolts - the Jets are the one playoff contender that has the 'it' factor this year. They ARE this year's potential Cards surprise IMHO. Arizona magic ends this weekend, as does the Saints drought. The Saints have major talent on offense, and will have enough home field defensive power to pressure the playoff overachiever Warner into some crucial mistakes - Arizona's ride ends this weekend. The Ravens had a hell of a start last weekend, but they simply aren't consistent enough to produce enough points to take down the Colts, or intimidating enough to stop Peyton from being, well, Peyton. And sadly, when it comes to Diva vs. Choker, this time the Choker likely wins. Dallas is playing out of its mind right now - it's got nothing to do with Romo, but its a fact. Dallas should win this one. Look to the NFC Championship for a Romo spazz-out. But it won't happen this weekend.
My best guesses.You ain't bonafide